Arkansas

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2067th
  Defense+0.1261st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.9%67th
  Defense40.8%64th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2262nd
  Defense+1.2339th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1359th
  Defense−0.0287th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3174th
  Defense+0.2341st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%63rd
  Defense45.9%58th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.0%69th
  Defense31.0%65th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9857th
  Defense2.4887th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.9%43rd
  Defense25.8%95th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.5%81st
  Defense2.2%63rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   AUB
2. W
   NICH
3. W
   TTU
4. W
   NIU
5. L
   TA&M
6. L
   ALA
7. L
   UGA
8. W
   UAB
9. L
   MSST
10. W
    LSU
11. W
    MISS
12. L
    MIZ
13. W
    TEX

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas.

Players, 2014

1. Brandon AllenQB317 plays · +0.322 pts/play · 32nd of 199 QBs
   1.91WAR1.42 to 2.46
2. Jonathan WilliamsRB172 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 28th of 350 RBs
   0.44WAR0.30 to 0.56
3. Alex CollinsRB153 plays · +0.067 pts/play · 123rd of 350 RBs
   0.19WAR0.05 to 0.33
4. Sam Irwin-HillP47 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 14th of 94 punters
   0.16WAR0.05 to 0.26
5. Keon HatcherWR61 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 138th of 469 WRs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.21
6. Jared CorneliusWR21 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 307th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
7. Drew MorganWR11 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 357th of 469 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.06
8. Kody WalkerRB13 plays · +0.060 pts/play · 285th of 350 RBs
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ALAQ4 5:09 4th & 3 at ARK 19, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
2. at MIZQ3 1:13 4th & 6 at MIZ 34, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. vs ALAQ3 6:56 4th & 11 at ALA 35, down 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
4. at TEXQ3 6:23 4th & 2 at midfield, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at MIZQ3 6:16 4th & 9 at ARK 39, up 8Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.3 pts
6. at AUBQ3 5:30 4th & 10 at AUB 34, down 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at MSSTQ1 3:04 4th & 1 at MSST 45, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at MSSTQ2 0:09 4th & 13 at MSST 45, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

37th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   AUB
2. W

   NICH
3. W

   TTU
4. W

   NIU
5. L

   TA&M
6. L

   ALA
7. L

   UGA
8. W

   UAB
9. L

   MSST
10. W

    LSU
11. W

    MISS
12. L

    MIZ
13. W

    TEX

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Arkansas's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.54
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.08
• Timeouts+0.10
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.35

Game by game

• AUBL 21-45 at AUB8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −12
• NICHW 73-7 vs NICH99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• TTUW 49-28 at TTU39% → 100%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• NIUW 52-14 vs NIU75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27
• TA&ML 28-35 at TA&M19% → 12%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts +13
• ALAL 13-14 vs ALA23% → 5%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −32, Clock −2
• UGAL 32-45 vs UGA40% → 2%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −44, Clock −2
• UABW 45-17 vs UAB93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +9
• MSSTL 10-17 at MSST17% → 4%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −2
• LSUW 17-0 vs LSU54% → 99%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +2
• MISSW 30-0 vs MISS43% → 100%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +50, Clock +1
• MIZL 14-21 at MIZ58% → 4%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• TEXW 31-7 at TEX62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +40, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Arkansas's side.

Closest call

ARK 41-38 TCU (2016) - Arkansas dropped to a 2.1% win probability before pulling it out.