View as
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:05 · Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK), (Adam McFain KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:05: Nick Chubb run for 43 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +6.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:17: Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +15.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:05: Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK), (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +9.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:00: Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +5.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:05: Alex Collins 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARK win probability +10.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 3:19ARK 4th & 22 at ARK 43, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it44.2%−1.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.4%average punt
- Q2 14:21UGA 4th & 16 at ARK 20, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snapGo for it52.7%−1.014% to convertField goalTheir call53.6%75% to makePunt51.0%−2.7average punt
- Q2 11:19ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.4%−1.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q2 7:36ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 25, down 11Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.2%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:08ARK 4th & 6 at UGA 34, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%40% to convertField goal7.8%−0.547% to makePunt6.2%−2.0average punt
- Q3 12:15UGA 4th & 5 at ARK 34, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%42% to convertField goal95.5%−0.147% to makePunt95.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:09UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 32, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q3 2:05ARK 4th & 4 at UGA 4, down 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%40% to convertField goal1.1%−0.393% to makePunt-2.3%−3.7average punt
- Q3 0:17UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 44, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q4 7:36UGA 4th & 7 at ARK 44, up 19Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%37% to convertField goal97.0%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call97.4%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 5:41UGA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.3%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:05UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:35UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.9%97% to makeGo for two73.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.0%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:30ARK Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:05ARK Touchdown, down 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:08UGA Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:00ARK Touchdown, down 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two3.2%45% to convert
- Q4 5:05ARK Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick6.9%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 7:4340% → 46%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
42.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 17 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:1955% → 58%
ARKDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:1144% → 42%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
43.5%
Brandon Allen sacked by Damian Swann for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 45 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark Hunter Henry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 20
OWN 45
-13
42.7%
Brandon Allen sacked by Leonard Floyd for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG11 plays · 51 yds · 3:4957% → 57%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
41.7%
Hutson Mason sacked by Braylon Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+26
42.9%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 26 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
41.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 14 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-4
41.7%
Hutson Mason sacked by Henre' Toliver for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5643% → 43%
Q2 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 29 Jonathan Williams fumbled, forced by Damian Swann, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
42.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 14 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
42.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0657% → 66%
Q2 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
41.9%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm Mitchell for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tevin Mitchel) to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1935% → 33%
Q2 7:36
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5068% → 72%
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
30.9%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 6 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Braylon Mitchell) to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
25.1%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 7 Alex Collins fumbled, recovered by Geo Leonard FloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD1 play · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE TD10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0210% → 7%
Q2 2:08
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+54
7.3%
Brandon Allen sacked by Jordan Jenkins for a loss of 12 yards Brandon Allen fumbled, forced by Jordan Jenkins, recovered by Geo Dominick Sanders , return for 0 yards , return for 54 yds, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12INT10 plays · 53 yds · 1:248% → 5%
Q2 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
6.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 10 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
7.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 13 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
6.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 5 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
5.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Leonard Floyd) to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
5.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 14 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
5.3%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted, touchback. Damian Swann return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3095% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD13 plays · 71 yds · 5:406% → 3%
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
5.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
5.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 16 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
3.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 1 yd to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
3.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Demetrius Wilson) to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
3.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 6 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Geo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
3.1%
Keon Hatcher 8 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1198% → 98%
ARKDrive 17TD7 plays · 57 yds · 2:552% → 11%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
2.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 4 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
2.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 28 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-13
2.8%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Geo 8 ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Geo 23Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
+17
2.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 17 yds to the Geo 6Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
2.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 2 yds to the Geo 4Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK), (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3896% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19INT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:278% → 8%
UGADrive 20TD3 plays · 42 yds · 1:1797% → 99%
Q4 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+36
0.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 36 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:001% → 6%
Q4 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+38
0.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 38 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+5
0.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 5 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
0.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
0.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the Geo 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q4 7:36
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
2.1%
Adam Erickson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD12 plays · 90 yds · 2:254% → 13%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
4.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (NA) to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
4.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Leonard Floyd) to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
3.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
50
+7
3.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 7 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+23
2.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 23 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
3.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
3.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 4 yds to the Geo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24END OF GAME12 plays · 52 yds · 4:2095% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:17
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q4 5:05
Alex Collins 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+10.1
TD · Q3 2:05
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK), (Adam McFain KICK)
+9