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NICH

Nicholls 7 at Arkansas 73

ARK
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG—ARK 99.9%John Henson 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 66 · Q4 14:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:08 · John Henson 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+22.3Home team on offense+32.9Score differential+29.1Blowout margin+14.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.6Garbage-time factor+11.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:50: Alex Collins run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:35: Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 22 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:21: Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:53NICH 4th & 23 at NICH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59NICH 4th & 28 at NICH 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43NICH 4th & 13 at NICH 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:29NICH 4th & 5 at NICH 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:49NICH 4th & 11 at NICH 35, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:42ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 13, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:35NICH 4th & 1 at midfield, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:37NICH 4th & 12 at midfield, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:15NICH 4th & 16 at NICH 21, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:20ARK 4th & 2 at NICH 37, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:08ARK 4th & 5 at NICH 5, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:59NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 42, down 66
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00NICH 4th & 5 at ARK 35, down 66
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 10 of 10NICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:38ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:50ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:35ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:21ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:27ARK Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:24ARK Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:55ARK Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:55ARK Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 14:08ARK Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:15NICH Touchdown, down 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:33ARK Touchdown, up 65 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NICHDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.1%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 9 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
99.1%
Michael Henry run for 5 yds to the NicSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
99.0%
Keenan Canty run for a loss of 3 yards to the NicSt 46Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-5
99.0%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Kalen Henderson) to the NicSt 41Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 18
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Von BreauxSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 18
OWN 41
-5
99.0%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 36Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 23
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 23
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Conner Fryoux punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
1 play · 82 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
99.0%
Keon Hatcher run for 82 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
98.9%
Kalen Henderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 19 Kalen Henderson fumbled, recovered by NicSt Kalen HendersonSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-12
98.9%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the NicSt 7Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
98.9%
Conner Fryoux punt for 26 yds, downed at the NicSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.0%
Alex Collins run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
98.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Kyron KingSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
98.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-3
98.9%
Kalen Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NicSt 11Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
98.9%
Conner Fryoux punt for 26 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for no gain to the NicSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
98.9%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
98.9%
Kody Walker run for 7 yds to the NicSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 22 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:491% → 1%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.0%
Michael Henry run for 2 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
99.0%
Michael Henry run for 2 yds to the NicSt 31Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
99.0%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 1 yd to the NicSt 32Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+3
99.0%
Conner Fryoux punt for 35 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
99.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 41 yds to the NicSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.0%
Jared Cornelius run for 11 yds to the NicSt 12 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dan Skipper) to the NicSt 22Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 9
OPP 22
+7
99.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the NicSt 15Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
99.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the NicSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.0%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the NicSt 2Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
99.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Allen) to the NicSt 7Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+63
99.4%
Conner Fryoux punt for 46 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 63 yds to the NicSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Kalen Henderson run for 1 yd to the NicSt 26Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
99.4%
Tobias Lofton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 24Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
99.5%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Dorian Durald for 12 yds to the NicSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.5%
Tobias Lofton run for 6 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-7
99.4%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NicSt 35Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Conner Fryoux punt for 45 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.3%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-1
99.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-13
99.3%
Allen, Brandon pass complete to Derby, AJ for 6 yards to the ARKANSAS32, PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul (Williams, Jonathan) 13 yards to the ARKANSAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
99.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+3
99.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 49 yds , Keenan Canty returns for 3 yds to the NicSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.5%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-6
99.5%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Darius Philon for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 38Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+12
99.6%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Terry Lucas Jr. for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 1
50
0
99.5%
Michael Henry run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 50 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.6%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 15 yds to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.6%
Tobias Lofton run for 2 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Dorian DuraldSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+15
99.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Tiquention Coleman) to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-13
99.7%
Keenan Canty run for 2 yds to the NicSt 46 NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NicSt 39Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 23
OWN 39
+3
99.7%
Kalen Henderson run for 3 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 12
50
+4
99.7%
Conner Fryoux punt for 44 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 4 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 12
50
0
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
99.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 90 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Carroll Washington) to the NicSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Tobias LoftonSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Josh SingletonSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-6
99.8%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Taiwan Johnson and Darius Philon for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 21Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 16
OWN 21
+24
99.8%
Conner Fryoux punt for 49 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 24 yds to the NicSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
99.8%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the NicSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
99.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 20 yds to the NicSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Alex Collins 13 Yd Run (John Henson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 19END OF HALF
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.8%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 26Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds to the NicSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Reggie WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.8%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 28Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+7
99.8%
Michael Henry run for 7 yds to the NicSt 35Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
99.8%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
99.8%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 38 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 4 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 3 yds to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 8 yds to the NicSt 43Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Reggie Wilson run for 1 yd to the NicSt 44Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Tobias Lofton run for 8 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 16 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
99.9%
Tobias Lofton run for 22 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 10 yds for a TD, (Francisco Condado KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the NicSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the NicSt 40Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Austin Allen run for 7 yds to the NicSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 24 yds to the NicSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the NicSt 4Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 0
OWN 4
+35
99.9%
Austin Allen pass intercepted John Williamson return for 50 yds to the Ark 0 ARKANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Kalen Henderson pass intercepted D.J. Dean return for 9 yds to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:36100% → 100%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Damon Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Damon Mitchell run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the NicSt 49Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Anthony Antwine for 15 yds to the NicSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the NicSt 30Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the NicSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 13 yds to the NicSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Jared Cornelius run for 3 yds to the NicSt 5Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.9%
John Henson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:320% → 0%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 11 yds to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Dorian Durald for 10 yds to the NicSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 26 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
100.0%
Beaux Hebert run for 20 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Michael Henry run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Dorian DuraldSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Josh Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 0
OPP 14
+31
99.9%
Francisco Condado 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 3 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Austin Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
100.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 24 yds to the NicSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for 11 yds to the NicSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 4 yds to the NicSt 18Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-5
100.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Austin Beck) to the NicSt 23Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+9
100.0%
Denzell Evans run for 9 yds to the NicSt 14Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
100.0%
Austin Allen run for 4 yds to the NicSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
100.0%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the NicSt 5Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
100.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Austin Allen run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK), (Lane Saling KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 8 yds to the NicSt 36Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Dorian Durald for 6 yds to the NicSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Dorian DuraldSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-6
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Grady Ollison for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 36Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+6
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Keenan Canty for 6 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+18
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 18 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Michael Henry for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+13
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Michael Henry for 13 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:21
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 10:50
Alex Collins run for 33 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 8:35
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 22 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com