Try the model
MISS

Ole Miss 0 at Arkansas 30

ARK
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:01 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense+15.4Score differential+7.8Garbage-time factor+5.2Blowout margin−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Pregame prior−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:09: Alex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +8.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:09: Alex Collins run for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down — ARK win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:41: Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 49 — ARK win probability +5.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:43: Adam McFain 31 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:38: Rohan Gaines 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:17MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46ARK 4th & 5 at MISS 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:24MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:09ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−7.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:07MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:35ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:53MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:18ARK 4th & 7 at MISS 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00ARK 4th & 14 at MISS 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:01ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 29, up 17
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:11MISS 4th & 3 at ARK 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−1.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:43ARK 4th & 13 at MISS 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:14MISS 4th & 10 at ARK 27, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 40, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:42ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 1, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:39MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:50ARK 4th & 15 at MISS 46, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:05ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:09ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:38ARK Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2157% → 56%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
43.4%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
43.4%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-3
43.8%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
43.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:5544% → 46%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
44.1%
Keon Hatcher run for 12 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
44.3%
Alex Collins run for 15 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
45.6%
Keon Hatcher 25 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2255% → 55%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
45.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
45.5%
Bo Wallace run for 2 yds to the Miss 29 Bo Wallace fumbled, forced by Martrell Spaight, recovered by Ark Trey FlowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0447% → 48%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
46.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
46.9%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
47.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
48.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
47.9%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
48.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kody Walker, broken up by Cody PrewittSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
48.4%
Adam McFain 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:1752% → 50%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
48.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+11
48.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
48.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
48.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Aaron Morris) to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 15
OWN 8
0
49.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 15
OWN 8
0
49.4%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
49.7%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:5450% → 62%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
50.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+13
51.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 13 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
51.8%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+18
52.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
52.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
53.2%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.5%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 0
OPP 1
0
52.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (C.J. Johnson) to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.6%
Alex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 34 yds · 1:3640% → 39%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
60.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
61.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 10 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
60.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
61.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+7
61.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
61.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+15
61.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 15 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
60.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Jordan WilkinsSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-7
61.1%
Bo Wallace sacked by Darius Philon for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 38 Bo Wallace fumbled, forced by Darius Philon, recovered by Ark Tevin Beanum , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4066% → 65%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
66.1%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
65.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
65.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
65.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4235% → 34%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
65.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
64.7%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Martrell SpaightSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
65.6%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
66.1%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0168% → 71%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
68.4%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
68.8%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+16
69.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 26 yds to the ARKANSAS 41 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Cody Hollister) to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
72.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-3
72.0%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 45 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark Brandon AllenSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
71.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
70.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2630% → 30%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.1%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
69.2%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Mark DodsonSimilar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
70.0%
Ryan Buchanan pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
70.2%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1273% → 75%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
72.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
73.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
73.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
74.8%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-4
74.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Senquez Golson and Fadol Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the ARKANSAS 49 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brey Cook) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+4
75.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 7
OPP 47
-8
74.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 36 yds , Markell Pack returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 3 Markell Pack fumbled, forced by Jeremy Sprinkle, recovered by Miss C.J. HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:4026% → 29%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
74.1%
Mark Dodson run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+16
74.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 16 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
74.2%
Wallace, Bo pass complete to Core, Cody for 13 yards to the OLEMISS32, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Spaight, Martrell) 14 yards to the OLEMISS33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
73.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
74.4%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+13
75.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 13 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+40
73.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 40 yds to the ARKANSAS 13 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tevin Mitchel) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
70.9%
Bo Wallace pass intercepted, touchback. Tevin Mitchel return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:0979% → 77%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
78.5%
Alex Collins run for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
79.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 28 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
80.4%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
80.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
80.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
79.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-9
77.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Channing Ward for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
77.4%
Adam McFain 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3279% → 79%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
79.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
79.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-3
79.3%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 29 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brey Cook) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
79.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4219% → 17%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
81.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 18 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
81.0%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+13
81.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
81.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-2
79.9%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+5
82.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mitchell Loewen) to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
81.8%
Mark Dodson run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-14
83.2%
Bo Wallace sacked by Trey Flowers for a loss of 14 yards to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5889% → 95%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
88.6%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
88.8%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+33
89.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 33 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
89.8%
Jonathan Williams pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
89.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
90.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 8
OPP 9
-5
89.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Denver Kirkland) to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+31
94.6%
Adam McFain 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18INT TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:466% → 1%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
94.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 11 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
94.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 14 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
94.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 22 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
93.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+100
99.4%
Rohan Gaines 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 5 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 10 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+37
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 37 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Mark DodsonSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 10
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+3
99.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.7%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
99.7%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-5
99.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
99.8%
Wallace, Bo pass complete to Wilkins, Jordan for 3 yards to the OLEMISS29, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Still, Ben) 10 yards to the OLEMISS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+2
99.8%
DeVante Kincade run for 2 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+7
99.8%
DeVante Kincade run for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 8, DeVante Kincade fumbled, recovered by Ark Darius Philon, return for 7 yds to the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
99.7%
Adam McFain 18 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Ryan Buchanan run for no gain to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 13 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Austin Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 36 Austin Allen fumbled, recovered by Miss Deterrian ShackelfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Fahn Cooper) to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+36
99.9%
Ryan Buchanan pass intercepted Brooks Ellis return for 36 yds to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
99.9%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 42 yds, downed at the Miss 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
99.9%
DeVante Kincade run for 6 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+4
100.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
DeVante Kincade run for 5 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
99.9%
DeVante Kincade pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 13 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+8
100.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 8 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:09
Alex Collins 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)
+8.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:09
Alex Collins run for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down
+7.6
TD · Q3 3:38
Rohan Gaines 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com