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ARK

Arkansas 39 at Florida 36

FLA
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 4 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingGarbage-time factor
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:38: Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FLA win probability +25.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:26: KJ Jefferson run for 25 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +41.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:02: Trevor Etienne run for 26 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +53.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:44: Cam Little 49 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +27.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 4 yds for a TD — ARK win probability +59.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:20FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:17ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:07FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55ARK 4th & 22 at ARK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39ARK 4th & 6 at FLA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29FLA 4th & 5 at ARK 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:49FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:34ARK 4th & 5 at FLA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:57FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−3.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:35ARK 4th & 8 at FLA 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:23FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54ARK 4th & 4 at FLA 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−13.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:58FLA 4th & 7 at ARK 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−19.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:44ARK 4th & 13 at FLA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−13.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−17.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:06ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:54ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:33FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:04FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:38FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:26ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:02FLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5440% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
60.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
60.4%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
60.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 12 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
60.4%
AJ Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+8
60.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+18
60.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 18 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 8 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
58.2%
Jaylon Braxton 33 Yd Fumble Return (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2858% → 57%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
58.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+5
58.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 5 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
58.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
56.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 yds, downed at the ARK 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5843% → 45%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
57.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 9Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+2
57.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 11
-5
57.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Princely Umanmielen and Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 6Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
55.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4956% → 58%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
56.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
56.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
56.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the ARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
56.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 19Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
54.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
58.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 19 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1144% → 43%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
56.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
56.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 1 yd to the ARK 32Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
56.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
56.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:1358% → 62%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
57.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 32 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
58.3%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 11Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
58.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the ARK 6Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.8%
MERTZ, Graham pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to WILSON III, Eugene caught at the ARK5 and advanced to the ARK5, TOUCHDOWN UFL, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:09 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UFL Personal Foul on BARBER, Austin ARK Personal Foul on PAUL JR., Chris , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1140% → 42%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
59.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 19 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
59.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 4
50
0
58.4%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4661% → 60%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
60.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
60.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 1 yd to the FLA 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+2
60.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 2 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 15
-5
59.9%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jaden Robinson) to the FLA 10Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
59.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:1242% → 40%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
58.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 5
50
+4
58.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 4 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
58.0%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the FLA 46 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK KJ Jefferson [NH] QB Keeper JEFFERSON, KJ rush up the middle for no gain, JEFFERSON, KJ fumbled at UFL46 , recovered by ARK JEFFERSON, KJ at the UFL46, returned 0 yards to the UFL46, End of Play.Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+5
58.9%
QB Keeper JEFFERSON, KJ rush to the left for no gain to the UFL46 (THORNTON, Bryce). PENALTY UFL Offsides on MCCLELLAN, Chris enforced 5 yards from the UFL46 to the UFL41 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
57.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
58.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-8
58.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 48Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 17
OPP 48
-5
60.0%
Arkansas Penalty, Delay Of Game (AJ Green) to the ARK 47Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
60.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:2161% → 60%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
62.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
61.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 4 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for no gain to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-4
60.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
59.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5542% → 46%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
58.0%
Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (Kamran James) to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
57.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jaydon Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+2
58.1%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+45
58.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 45 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
54.8%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the FLA 19Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
54.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 3 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-2
55.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Princely Umanmielen and Kelby Collins for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 18Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+37
54.2%
Cam Little 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 4:1056% → 61%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
57.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 9 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
57.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+5
56.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+11
57.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
56.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the ARK 44Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
55.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 10 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
57.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 5 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
56.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
60.9%
Trey Smack 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.7%
[NH] Kneel down by JEFFERSON, KJ at ARK23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0560% → 58%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
60.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
61.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
61.4%
run for 2 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
61.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
59.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
57.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:1544% → 49%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 2 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
56.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+48
57.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 48 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
51.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+7
52.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
52.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
50.6%
Cam Little 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3752% → 48%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
51.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by Lorando Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
51.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
49.6%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
48.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:2254% → 52%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
45.8%
AJ Green run for 9 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
45.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
45.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
44.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
44.7%
AJ Green run for 13 yds to the FLA 20 Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrone Broden) to the FLA 35Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
44.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 8 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-5
45.8%
SANDERS, Raheim rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UFL25 (NUNNERY, Mannie). PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the UFL27 to the UFL32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
46.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
48.1%
Cam Little 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1251% → 47%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
51.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
51.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
54.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
50
+2
54.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-2
53.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
50
-5
49.7%
Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
47.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:3754% → 55%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
46.5%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
46.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ARK 13Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+16
48.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
45.2%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 32 AJ Green fumbled, recovered by FLA Jaydon Hill [NHSG] GREEN, AJ rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards, GREEN, AJ fumbled at ARK31 forced by WILLIAMS, Scooby, recovered by UFL HILL, Jaydon at the ARK32, returned 0 yards to the ARK32, End of Play, clock 01:46 (After review, play stands as called on the field).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
70.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:3635% → 48%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
65.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
64.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 10 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
62.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
62.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
+16
61.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 16 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
59.7%
TESLAA, Isaac pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ARMSTRONG, Andrew broken up by MOORE, Devin at the UFL0. PENALTY UFL Pass Interference on MOORE, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UFL19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
59.1%
Florida Penalty, Offsides (Jamari Lyons) to the FLA 14Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+6
59.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
59.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the FLA 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
59.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the FLA 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
52.0%
Cam Little 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:5658% → 74%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 17 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
61.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 9 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
63.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
62.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
63.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the ARK 47Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+18
60.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 18 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
65.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
64.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
64.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
73.9%
Trey Smack 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:2733% → 83%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
67.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
65.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
65.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+16
64.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
60.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 2 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
60.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+14
61.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 14 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
58.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 6 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
16.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 25 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:1732% → 87%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.7%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+41
33.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 41 yds to the ARK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
86.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 26 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:1829% → 52%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 10 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
68.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
63.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 9 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+14
61.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
59.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
59.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-10
63.1%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the right incomplete intended for BRODEN, Tyrone thrown to the UFL14; QB hurried by UMANMIELEN, Princely. PENALTY ARK Holding on MANUEL, Devon enforced 10 yards from the UFL26 to the UFL36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 18
OPP 36
-5
68.5%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Raheim Sanders) to the FLA 41Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 23
OPP 41
+10
75.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 10 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+49
48.1%
Cam Little 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:4155% → 67%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 15 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
57.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 16 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
64.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+20
64.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 20 yds to the ARK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
67.3%
Florida Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the ARK 26Similar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+44
66.6%
Trey Smack 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.3%
[NH] Kneel down by JEFFERSON, KJ at ARK25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
65.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the ARK 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
63.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
80.1%
Trey Smack 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
71.4%
QB Keeper JEFFERSON, KJ rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the UFL15, out of bounds. PENALTY ARK Holding on BRAUN, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the UFL25 to the UFL35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+20
77.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 20 yds to the FLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
71.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the FLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 4 yds for a TD
-59.2
TD · Q4 3:02
Trevor Etienne run for 26 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+53.2
TD · Q4 4:26
KJ Jefferson run for 25 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
-41.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com