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LSU

LSU 0 at Arkansas 17

ARK
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDEnd of GamePUNT-2.2ARK 77.9%Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, downedat the LSU 5AWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q3 3:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:49 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+12.9Garbage-time factor+6.6Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Pregame prior+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:40: Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +5.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:46: Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the LSU 39 — ARK win probability +2.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. MISSED FG · Q3 7:26: Colby Delahoussaye 47 yd FG MISSED — ARK win probability +4.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:39: Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 38 — ARK win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:03: Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:17ARK 4th & 8 at LSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:41LSU 4th & 7 at ARK 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:15LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:35ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:26LSU 4th & 16 at ARK 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:49ARK 4th & 16 at LSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:19LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:32ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 27, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:49LSU 4th & 24 at LSU 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:36ARK 4th & 7 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:32LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:40ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:03ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:3355% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
54.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
54.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for 14 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
54.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 16 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
55.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
55.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+14
55.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for 14 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
55.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
55.5%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
55.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
55.5%
Adam McFain 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -22 yds · 2:1845% → 43%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.2%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-27
55.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 27 yards to the LSU 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Anthony JenningsSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 37
OWN 3
+5
56.7%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 32
OWN 8
+4
56.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 45 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2357% → 56%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
56.5%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
56.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-1
56.6%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
56.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 5:4243% → 42%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
56.6%
Terrence Magee run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+2
56.9%
Terrence Magee run for 2 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+9
57.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 9 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
56.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 8 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
56.4%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
57.0%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
56.7%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Martrell Spaight for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 27
-1
57.1%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 16
OWN 26
-5
57.7%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (Anthony Jennings) to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+4
57.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 4 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 17
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Jamie Keehn punt for 43 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:4858% → 66%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
57.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
57.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 5 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
58.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
58.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
59.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
59.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
59.7%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
59.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ Derby, broken up by Lamar LouisSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+11
59.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 11 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
60.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
59.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ Derby, broken up by Lamar LouisSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+10
58.4%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete to Henry, Hunter, PENALTY LSU pass interference (White, Tre'Davious) 10 yards to the LSU5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
60.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.6%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6MISSED FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 6:5034% → 31%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
65.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Connor Neighbors for 4 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
65.7%
Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
65.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
66.3%
Travin Dural run for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
65.9%
Terrence Magee run for 5 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
65.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Ethan Pocic) to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
66.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
66.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
67.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 11 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.8%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Darrel Williams, broken up by Mitchell LoewenSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
66.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
67.5%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Dural, Travin, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Toliver, Henre') 8 yards to the ARKANSAS13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
66.6%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
66.3%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
67.3%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John Diarse, broken up by D.J. DeanSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
69.3%
Colby Delahoussaye 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7END OF HALF
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3370% → 71%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
70.1%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
71.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+18
71.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 18 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan Williams, broken up by Deion JonesSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
72.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
70.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Anthony AntwineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3430% → 26%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
70.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
70.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+5
73.8%
Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
73.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2274% → 73%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
74.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
74.2%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 19 Jonathan Williams fumbled, forced by Jermauria Rasco, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
73.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 9
OWN 19
-5
72.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
73.0%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:0227% → 23%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
72.8%
Terrence Magee run for 12 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
72.2%
Terrence Magee run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
72.0%
Terrence Magee run for no gain to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
73.7%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Smith, DeSean, PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul (Gaines, Rohan) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
71.8%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
70.7%
Terrence Magee run for 1 yd to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-10
72.5%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Trey Flowers for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
77.4%
Colby Delahoussaye 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2977% → 78%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
76.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-15
77.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Dan Skipper) to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+17
76.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 17 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+29
77.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 29 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
80.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+3
80.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-7
80.1%
Brandon Allen sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
77.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2221% → 19%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
79.1%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
79.7%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+5
80.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to John Diarse for 5 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
81.4%
Jamie Keehn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:0882% → 96%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
82.2%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
82.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 6 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
82.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Ronald MartinSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.5%
Korliss Marshall run for 3 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+13
83.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 13 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
84.5%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-8
85.2%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 28 Alex Collins fumbled, recovered by Ark Alex CollinsSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+14
84.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 14 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
86.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
86.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:355% → 5%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
95.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 8 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
95.2%
Anthony Jennings run for 13 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
95.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travis Dickson for 8 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+5
94.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
94.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 8 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+8
94.6%
Anthony Jennings run for 8 yds to the Ark 19 Anthony Jennings fumbled, forced by Martrell Spaight, recovered by Ark Darius PhilonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
96.5%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
96.7%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+1
96.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 54 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:384% → 2%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Terrence MageeSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-15
96.6%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. and Mitchell Loewen for a loss of 15 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 25
OWN 5
+1
97.7%
Anthony Jennings run for 1 yd to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 24
OWN 6
0
97.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0898% → 99%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
98.3%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
98.4%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+1
98.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
50
0
98.6%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 28 yds, downed at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
99.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 14 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.2%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Terrence MageeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.9%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
99.1%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
99.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:03
Alex Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 8:40
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
+5.1
MISSED FG · Q3 7:26
Colby Delahoussaye 47 yd FG MISSED
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com