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ARK

Arkansas 10 at Mississippi State 17

MSST
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:09 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+17.5Home team on offense−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:30: Josh Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +8.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:34: Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 2 yds to the MisSt 40 — ARK win probability +6.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:21: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 69 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +22.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:05: Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 21 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down — MSST win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 10 — MSST win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 9:50ARK 4th & 9 at MSST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 32, up 3
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.3
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50MSST 4th & 15 at ARK 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:39ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22ARK 4th & 9 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09ARK 4th & 13 at MSST 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:08MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−2.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−10.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:03ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:35MSST 4th & 5 at ARK 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:38ARK 4th & 16 at MSST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−13.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:45ARK 4th & 3 at MSST 21, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:05ARK 4th & 3 at MSST 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−6.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−15.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:29MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:30ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:01ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:30MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:21MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:1018% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
82.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 11 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.4%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+23
82.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 23 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
81.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
81.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
81.4%
Kody Walker run for 8 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+7
81.1%
Damon Mitchell run for 7 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
80.8%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
80.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Patrick ArinzeSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
80.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
80.7%
Adam McFain 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:3981% → 81%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
80.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 21 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
80.7%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Alan Turner return for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 3:0420% → 21%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
80.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 12 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
79.9%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
79.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
79.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
79.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
79.0%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 24 yds, downed at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2579% → 78%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
78.9%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 13
OWN 5
0
78.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+2
78.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 2 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+4
77.8%
Devon Bell punt for 51 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3822% → 22%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.2%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
77.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 6 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
77.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
77.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1478% → 76%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
77.6%
Josh Robinson run for 13 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+47
77.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 47 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-17
78.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 33 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malcolm Johnson) to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 27
OPP 48
0
77.5%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 27
OPP 48
+12
77.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 12 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
76.2%
Devon Bell punt for 29 yds, downed at the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1123% → 23%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
76.9%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
76.2%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
76.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 6
OWN 11
-20
76.6%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 44 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for a loss of 20 yards to the MisSt 25 Jamoral Graham fumbled, recovered by Ark Kody WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3826% → 33%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
74.3%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
73.9%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
73.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (Brandon Allen) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+5
73.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
72.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+14
73.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.3%
Williams, Jonathan rush for no gain to the MISSSTATE1, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Smith, Preston) 0 yards to the MISSSTATE1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3167% → 74%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
67.6%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
67.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 31 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
68.3%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
68.1%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
66.6%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gus WalleySimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
67.1%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+12
65.3%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
66.0%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.3%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:0829% → 31%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
70.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+8
70.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 8 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
69.2%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
68.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 5 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
68.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 5 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
67.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
50
0
67.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
50
0
67.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
50
0
69.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11INT
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:4869% → 69%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
69.4%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-1
69.9%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+10
68.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
69.2%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
70.4%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
69.6%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
70.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
71.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-2
70.8%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+27
68.9%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Brooks Ellis return for 27 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2538% → 34%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
62.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
61.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-5
62.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brey Cook) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
64.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
65.6%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
64.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:5267% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
66.9%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
66.3%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
65.4%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
67.9%
Fred Ross run for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+10
68.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
68.4%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
69.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
67.5%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
68.8%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
66.6%
Prescott, Dak pass complete to Walley, Gus for 7 yards to the ARKANSAS27, PENALTY MISSSTATE illegal touching (Walley, Gus) 0 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+12
64.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
65.3%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 5:0537% → 41%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
62.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
62.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+16
61.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 16 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-13
56.9%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 47 ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Drew Morgan) to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
57.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
56.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Keon Hatcher) to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-2
58.5%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+6
59.8%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:2860% → 68%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
62.7%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-5
63.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Dillon Day) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
62.5%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
63.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Nick Griffin for 23 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
64.3%
Prescott, Dak pass complete to Morrow, Joe for 13 yards to the ARKANSAS12, PENALTY MISSSTATE ineligible downfield on pass (Day, Dillon) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+6
63.3%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
64.0%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
61.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
68.1%
Evan Sobiesk 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5737% → 37%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
63.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 15 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.7%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
59.0%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
58.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Denver Kirkland) to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+42
60.4%
Alex Collins run for 42 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
54.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-5
55.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Hunter Henry) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 16
OPP 25
0
57.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kody WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 16
OPP 25
0
59.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+42
62.8%
Adam McFain 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1765% → 87%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.0%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
65.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (De'Runnya Wilson) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
64.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
86.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 69 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
18 plays · 72 yds · 8:1617% → 16%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
83.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 8 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.9%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+14
82.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Alex CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
80.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+10
80.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 10 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
77.8%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
77.7%
Damon Mitchell pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+4
80.2%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+12
81.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
80.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 6 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
82.2%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the MisSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:3690% → 95%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
90.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 21 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
90.7%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-2
92.2%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
92.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Ben Beckwith) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+21
91.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 21 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.0%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
95.0%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
95.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+7
94.7%
Devon Bell punt for 42 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 7 yds to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:148% → 14%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
91.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
91.7%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-5
92.9%
Brandon Allen sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+36
93.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 36 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
90.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
89.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+24
89.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 24 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
85.7%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted, touchback. Will Redmond return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:1596% → 96%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
96.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:21
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 69 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+22.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 10
+10.7
TD · Q2 7:30
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com