Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 28 at Arkansas 21

ARK
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 44 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK) — TA&M win probability +7.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:17: Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +22.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:12: Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +19.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:50: Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Allen pass to Josh Reynolds for Two-Point Conversion) — TA&M win probability +46.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Christian Kirk 20 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick) — TA&M win probability +19.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:36ARK 4th & 2 at TA&M 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:36ARK 4th & 7 at TA&M 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:33TA&M 4th & 6 at ARK 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:52ARK 4th & 19 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:30TA&M 4th & 4 at ARK 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:04TA&M 4th & 4 at ARK 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−12.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:11TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:35TA&M 4th & 7 at ARK 42, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−1.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:11ARK 4th & 8 at TA&M 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:08ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:48TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:17ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:12ARK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:50TA&M Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.9%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:1442% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
42.5%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
42.7%
Brandon Allen run for 17 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
43.2%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
43.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 1 yd to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
43.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 5 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
43.9%
Toby Baker punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0256% → 56%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
43.6%
Kyle Allen run for 11 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
43.7%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
44.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 6 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
44.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 7:0744% → 52%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
44.2%
Alex Collins run for 12 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
44.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 7 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
44.8%
Brandon Allen run for 16 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
45.7%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+6
46.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
46.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Hunter Henry) to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-10
46.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+4
46.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 4 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+21
46.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 21 yds to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
47.5%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
47.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
52.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
5 plays · 98 yds · 1:0749% → 56%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
51.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 7 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+11
51.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 11 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
51.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 36 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
44.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 44 yds for a TD, (Taylor Bertolet KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5INT
13 plays · 40 yds · 7:0647% → 49%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.8%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
47.7%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
48.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 9 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
49.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
49.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 8 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
49.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dan Skipper) to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-10
49.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitch Smothers) to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 30
OWN 42
0
48.6%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 30
OWN 42
+17
48.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-5
49.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dan Skipper) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+11
48.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+17
49.3%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Donovan Wilson return for 7 yds to the TexAM 28 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Brandon Williams) to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FG
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0354% → 59%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
46.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Julien Obioha) to the TexAM 7Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+29
46.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 29 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+57
45.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 57 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
41.8%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
41.8%
Kyle Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
42.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
41.3%
Taylor Bertolet 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:3343% → 40%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 14 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
44.1%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
45.6%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+11
45.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
46.5%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-10
46.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hunter Henry) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 15
OPP 46
-4
44.2%
Brandon Allen sacked by Zaycoven Henderson for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 19
50
0
40.2%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 19
50
0
39.5%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4559% → 56%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
40.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
42.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Germain Ifedi) to the TexAM 19Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
42.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+45
43.8%
Drew Kaser punt for 51 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 45 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:4658% → 69%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
41.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
40.3%
Kyle Allen run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+17
40.6%
Kyler Murray run for 17 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
39.6%
Kyler Murray run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
39.2%
Kyler Murray run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ricky Seals-Jones) to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
39.7%
Christian Kirk run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
38.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
40.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
37.1%
Kyle Allen run for 9 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+13
36.6%
Tra Carson run for 13 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
35.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by Karl Roesler for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
36.0%
Tra Carson run for no gain to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
38.2%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 15 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
31.4%
Taylor Bertolet 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:2836% → 62%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
35.5%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
37.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
35.7%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
37.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Damon Mitchell for 6 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
37.7%
Rawleigh Williams run for 19 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
40.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 31 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.4%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5448% → 44%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
51.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
51.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
53.6%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
56.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4857% → 84%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
57.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
59.5%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
59.2%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
61.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to JoJo RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+38
59.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 38 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
64.3%
Rawleigh Williams run for 13 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
64.7%
Brandon Allen run for 4 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.3%
Rawleigh Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1520% → 20%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
79.7%
Kyler Murray run for 4 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-3
80.4%
Kyler Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 17Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+13
81.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 13 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
79.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Mitchell Loewen) to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
76.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
77.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-4
76.3%
Kyle Allen sacked by Tevin Beanum and Mitchell Loewen for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:1784% → 93%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
84.3%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
85.2%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
85.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+6
85.9%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
88.3%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the Ark 32 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zaycoven Henderson) to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.6%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
90.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (Daylon Mack) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
92.3%
Rawleigh Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.0%
Rawleigh Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
93.1%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+6
93.3%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-5
92.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Denver Kirkland) to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Toby Baker punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:108% → 61%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
91.9%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Christian Kirk for 9 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
90.7%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Tra Carson for 6 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+63
91.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 63 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
86.7%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Reynolds, Josh, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Dean, D.J.) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Caden SmithSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.3%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Allen pass to Josh Reynolds for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3657% → 59%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
56.9%
Alex Collins run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
59.3%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
61.0%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.6%
Rawleigh Williams run for no gain to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-9
58.7%
Brandon Allen sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 41 Brandon Allen fumbled, forced by Myles Garrett, recovered by TexAM A.J. Hilliard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5659% → 61%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
41.3%
Allen, Kyle pass incomplete to Seals-Jones, Ricky, PENALTY ARKANSAS roughing passer (Ledbetter, Jeremiah) 14 yards to the ARKANSAS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
37.4%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
37.4%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+38
38.7%
Taylor Bertolet 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
40.5%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
20.8%
Christian Kirk 20 Yd pass from Kyle Allen (Taylor Bertolet Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19Uncategorized
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+6
22.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
27.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to JoJo Robinson for 5 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
25.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
22.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:50
Tra Carson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Allen pass to Josh Reynolds for Two-Point Conversion)
-46.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.8
TD · Q3 4:17
Alex Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+22.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com