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ALA

Alabama 14 at Arkansas 13

ARK
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:29 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 35 yds , Christion Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 31 Christion Jones fumbled, recovered by Ark Kody Walker
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−27.0Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:43: AJ Derby 54 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick) — ARK win probability +18.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:36: DeAndrew White 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +19.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q4 9:23: Brandon Allen sacked by Eddie Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Ark 32 — ARK win probability +11.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:13: Amari Cooper run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 42 — ALA win probability +14.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:53: T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line — ALA win probability +16.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:29ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40ARK 4th & 7 at ALA 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:21ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:14ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09ARK 4th & 9 at ALA 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:48ALA 4th & 11 at ARK 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43ALA 4th & 10 at ARK 37, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:35ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56ARK 4th & 11 at ALA 35, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:46ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:06ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 44, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:36ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 10, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−5.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:51ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:37ALA 4th & 1 at ARK 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−11.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−8.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:21ARK 4th & 1 at ALA 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.6%−6.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:45ALA 4th & 4 at ARK 46, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−7.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:09ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 19, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−2.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:50ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 47, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:40ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:47ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:43ARK Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:36ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2123% → 23%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
23.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
23.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
23.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 35 yds , Christion Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 31 Christion Jones fumbled, recovered by Ark Kody WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0024% → 25%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
23.6%
Brandon Allen run for 14 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
24.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+6
24.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 6 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Alab 6Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
24.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 5 yds Kody Walker fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3176% → 75%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
24.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
24.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
24.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
25.0%
JK Scott punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 6:3425% → 29%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
25.0%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 10 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark Brandon AllenSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+7
25.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+14
25.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
25.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
26.6%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
26.9%
Korliss Marshall run for 1 yd to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
27.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 18 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
27.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
28.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 6 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
28.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 3 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
29.2%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
29.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 7
OPP 26
-9
28.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0972% → 71%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
27.9%
DeAndrew White run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
28.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
28.6%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
29.0%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5829% → 29%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
29.2%
Williams, Jonathan rush for 3 yards to the ARKANSAS18, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal formation 5 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 10
0
29.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+17
29.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 17 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
30.0%
Korliss Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 36 yds , Maurice Smith returns for no gain to the Alab 39 Maurice Smith fumbled, recovered by Ark Alan D'AppollonioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5132% → 31%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
32.0%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+2
32.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
32.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
30.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:1170% → 68%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
30.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
29.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
30.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+47
31.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 47 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
28.9%
Yeldon, T.J. rush for loss of 2 yards to the ARKANSAS27, PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul (Flowers, Trey) 13 yards to the ARKANSAS12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
29.0%
Blake Sims run for 4 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
29.3%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-5
30.3%
Blake Sims sacked by Trey Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
31.7%
Adam Griffith 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
33.8%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 23 Alex Collins fumbled, forced by A'Shawn Robinson, recovered by Alab Ryan Anderson , return for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5170% → 75%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
29.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
30.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
24.6%
T.J. Yeldon 22 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:4026% → 38%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
26.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 21 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Korliss Marshall for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
26.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 10 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
27.9%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete to Henry, Hunter, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Ragland, Reggie) 15 yards to the ALABAMA31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
28.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 16 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
29.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
29.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 3 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
27.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
28.7%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.7%
Jonathan Williams 3 Yd Run (John Henson PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:5369% → 68%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
31.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
32.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+21
32.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 21 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
29.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
29.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-1
29.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
30.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-5
32.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
32.3%
JK Scott punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ark 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:3434% → 36%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
33.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
34.5%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+21
34.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 21 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
36.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
36.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1066% → 63%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
33.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-13
34.1%
Blake Sims sacked by Darius Philon for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 22
OWN 15
+13
36.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 13 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
37.1%
JK Scott punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
15 plays · 48 yds · 5:2937% → 39%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
36.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
36.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+11
35.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
37.5%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+3
37.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+26
36.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 26 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
42.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
42.8%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul off-setting, PENALTY ALABAMA Personal Foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
42.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
42.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
40.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 11 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
45.0%
Brandon Allen sacked by Jarran Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
45.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
42.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5662% → 59%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
38.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
38.5%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
40.2%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
41.5%
JK Scott punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5044% → 62%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
43.6%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
43.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+54
62.0%
AJ Derby 54 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1444% → 44%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
55.9%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
57.9%
Blake Sims run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
56.4%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:2364% → 65%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
64.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-2
66.9%
Brandon Allen sacked by Xzavier Dickson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-5
65.9%
Brandon Allen sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
65.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 46 yds, downed at the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5243% → 64%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
57.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 12 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
55.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
56.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 9 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
55.9%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
54.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Cam Sims for 15 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
54.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
54.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
35.7%
DeAndrew White 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2841% → 38%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
41.4%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
41.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
40.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+6
37.7%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 38 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 6 yds to the Alab 48 Cyrus Jones fumbled, recovered by Alab Trey DePriestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5866% → 64%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
33.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
35.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+10
36.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
36.1%
Blake Sims run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0248% → 46%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-11
47.7%
Brandon Allen sacked by Eddie Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+6
42.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+14
42.3%
Brandon Allen run for 14 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
45.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2869% → 68%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
31.0%
Amari Cooper run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
34.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+7
35.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+5
35.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
32.5%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3043% → 39%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
43.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Patrick Arinze for 7 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
43.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
40.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+1
38.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 39 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5970% → 68%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
29.8%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 3
50
+2
28.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-5
29.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
29.3%
Blake Sims run for 5 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
30.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
32.2%
JK Scott punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4343% → 40%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
43.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
42.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+14
40.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
43.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted Landon Collins return for no gain to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5377% → 95%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
23.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
50
+7
22.2%
Blake Sims run for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-5
16.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Arie Kouandjio) to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+6
5.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 6 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:36
DeAndrew White 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)
-19
TD · Q3 4:43
AJ Derby 54 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick)
+18.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:53
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com