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ARK

Arkansas 49 at Texas Tech 28

TTU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:04 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.2Pregame prior+10.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:45: Davis Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK) — TTU win probability +9.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:30: Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +18.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:57: Brandon Allen run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +15.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:42: Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK) — TTU win probability +17.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:59: Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +16.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:16TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04ARK 4th & 3 at TTU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:13TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:07ARK 4th & 1 at TTU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−4.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:55TTU 4th & 15 at ARK 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:10TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:37ARK 4th & 3 at TTU 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:58TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:36ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:26ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:04TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:15ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:45TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:30ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:57ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:42TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:59ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:56ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3961% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
60.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 8 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds , Jared Collins returns for no gain to the Ark 31 Jared Collins fumbled, recovered by TexTc Sam EguavoenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:0261% → 62%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
61.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Justin Stockton for 8 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+5
61.2%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
61.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
61.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4638% → 38%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
61.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
61.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 6 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+9
62.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 9 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
62.1%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
62.1%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
62.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4663% → 63%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
62.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
62.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 4 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
62.8%
Davis Webb run for 1 yd to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
63.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for a loss of 2 yards Jakeem Grant fumbled, forced by Brooks Ellis, recovered by Ark Taiwan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2438% → 40%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
62.0%
Keon Hatcher run for 7 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
59.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3861% → 60%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
60.8%
Quinton White run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
60.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:1440% → 47%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
60.4%
Collins, Alex rush for 12 yards to the ARKANSAS44, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+13
60.6%
Alex Collins run for 13 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+7
60.2%
Korliss Marshall run for 7 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.9%
Korliss Marshall run for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
60.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
59.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.3%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
59.3%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
59.1%
Korliss Marshall run for 2 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
59.0%
Korliss Marshall run for 2 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+21
58.2%
Brandon Allen run for 21 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
53.2%
Jonathan Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0855% → 63%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
54.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 14 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
55.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 9 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+11
56.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
56.8%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
56.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to D.J. Polite-BraySimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+14
55.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 14 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
56.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+6
56.4%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
56.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4041% → 50%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
59.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 8 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kenny Williams) to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
57.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
57.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
57.0%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Keenon Ward) to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
50.2%
Alex Collins run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1553% → 63%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
52.9%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
52.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 11 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
53.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
54.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
53.8%
Quinton White run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
54.5%
Quinton White run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+7
52.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 7 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
53.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 14 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
53.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+11
53.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 11 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
62.5%
Davis Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:3343% → 47%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
56.4%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
57.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 11 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+561
55.0%
Korliss Marshall run for 2 yds to the Ark 48 Korliss Marshall fumbled, recovered by Ark Korliss Marshall for a 1ST down TexTc Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
54.5%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
54.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+10
54.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jonathan Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
53.4%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
53.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+16
54.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 16 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-16
52.6%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 16 yards to the TexTc 27 Alex Collins fumbled, recovered by TexTc Justis NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1360% → 59%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.2%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
59.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+30
58.5%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Martrell Spaight return for 30 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
40.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:1246% → 43%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 7 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
48.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
46.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Davis for 5 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
45.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan DavisSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
44.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
42.6%
Taylor Symmank punt for 53 yds, downed at the Ark 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
42.5%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5457% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
42.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
41.3%
Keon Hatcher run for 9 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
39.7%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
39.3%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+9
38.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
38.3%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+21
39.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 21 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
36.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
36.2%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
36.7%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
35.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the TexTc 5Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.0%
Brandon Allen run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:0925% → 43%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+31
24.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 31 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
27.1%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
26.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
25.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Quinton White for 8 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
26.3%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
25.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+39
42.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:2563% → 91%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
37.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 10 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
36.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Hunter Henry) to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+7
36.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
35.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
32.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
32.1%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
31.0%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
30.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
30.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
29.2%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
28.6%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+9
27.8%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
25.1%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 7Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 1:5216% → 15%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
16.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
16.0%
Quinton White run for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
17.1%
Jakeem Grant run for 18 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
17.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Alfredo Morales) to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
16.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
16.5%
Davis Webb run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
14.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
14.5%
Taylor Symmank punt for 28 yds, downed at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:4592% → 98%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
8.1%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+84
1.8%
Alex Collins run for 84 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
2.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 12 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
2.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 4 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
2.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-10
2.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+13
2.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 13 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
2.8%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22END OF GAME
14 plays · 51 yds · 8:5699% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
1.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+4
1.2%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.2%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.9%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
0.9%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
0.7%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+11
0.6%
Kody Walker run for 11 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
0.6%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
0.5%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
0.5%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
0.4%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q3 5:42
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)
+17.2
TD · Q4 13:59
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com