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TOL

Toledo 16 at Arkansas 12

ARK
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · War Memorial Stadium (AR)
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Brandon Allen pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:53: Alex Collins 21 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:09: Damion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +19.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:30: Cole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +12.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:00: Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 36 — ARK win probability +9.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:51: Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 10 — TOL win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:42TOL 4th & 17 at ARK 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:59ARK 4th & 14 at TOL 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:01TOL 4th & 1 at ARK 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:40TOL 4th & 9 at ARK 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:50TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 29, down 1
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:50ARK 4th & 1 at TOL 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−1.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06TOL 4th & 10 at ARK 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:39ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:45TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:00TOL 4th & 1 at ARK 14, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−4.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−17.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30ARK 4th & 1 at TOL 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−4.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−17.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:30ARK 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−14.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:05TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−2.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:55ARK 4th & 7 at TOL 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−10.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−17.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:59TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:53ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:09TOL Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:088% → 9%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
92.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
92.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-5
91.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
91.9%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+32
91.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 32 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
91.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-2
91.6%
Marc Remy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 17
OPP 32
0
91.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
91.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
91.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:0692% → 90%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
91.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
91.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 9 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
91.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
91.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.8%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-2
90.9%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
90.4%
Brandon Allen run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0610% → 11%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
89.7%
Corey Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
89.6%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+25
89.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 25 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.3%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.8%
Corey Jones 5 Yd pass from Phillip Ely (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:3189% → 87%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
88.9%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+22
88.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 22 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
88.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 19 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
88.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
88.7%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
88.4%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-4
88.2%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 14
OPP 24
0
87.4%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+41
87.0%
Cole Hedlund 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5MISSED FG
20 plays · 62 yds · 6:1513% → 18%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-13
86.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-13 Yards) to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+27
86.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 27 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
85.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
85.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
85.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.9%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
84.7%
Marc Remy run for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
84.7%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+12
84.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
84.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+9
83.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 9 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
83.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+13
82.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 13 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.3%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.8%
Phillip Ely run for 3 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
81.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
82.0%
Jameson Vest 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jeremiah Ledbetter Josh Williams return for 1 yd to the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:3783% → 87%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
82.6%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
82.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+18
81.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
81.5%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+26
81.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 26 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
81.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 28 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
82.3%
Damon Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
87.1%
Alex Collins 21 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0015% → 14%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
85.2%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
85.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
85.1%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5386% → 85%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
86.0%
Kody Walker run for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the Toledo 47 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 6
OWN 43
-5
86.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 11
OWN 38
+2
85.9%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+17
85.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
86.1%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
85.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
85.1%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:3717% → 23%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
82.9%
Marc Remy run for 11 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
81.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 24 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
80.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+7
79.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 7 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
79.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
79.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
80.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
77.1%
Jameson Vest 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:5379% → 78%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
78.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 14 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
80.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 18 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
80.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+7
78.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Alex Collins for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 18
50
0
78.6%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
50
-10
77.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0877% → 75%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
77.1%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
76.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 13 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
76.7%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
76.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
74.6%
Toby Baker punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2926% → 26%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
73.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
73.7%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+5
74.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+43
74.4%
Michael Julian punt for 36 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 43 yds to the ARKANSAS 34 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1278% → 76%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
77.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 15 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
77.3%
Rawleigh Williams run for 4 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
76.9%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
75.6%
Brandon Allen pass intercepted, touchback. DeJuan Rogers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5829% → 54%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+27
70.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 27 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
67.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
67.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+18
66.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
64.0%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
63.6%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
64.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
65.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
46.4%
Damion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
24 plays · 73 yds · 10:1149% → 44%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.1%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
48.2%
Brandon Allen run for 9 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
47.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
45.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 14 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
49.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+11
44.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 11 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
46.3%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
45.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+10
41.7%
Brandon Allen run for 10 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
43.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 11 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.5%
Keon Hatcher run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
44.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
41.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams for 6 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
39.5%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
41.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
41.2%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
40.2%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.6%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Toled 3Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.2%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
32.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
44.0%
Cole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:2066% → 72%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
34.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+3
34.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+9
34.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+9
33.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
31.6%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
27.3%
Marc Remy run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
24.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 3
OWN 41
-5
26.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
27.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0537% → 23%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
36.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+10
38.7%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
38.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 10 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
39.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
40.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 13 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
38.8%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
39.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
38.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
36.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
34.7%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
23.0%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18SF
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:5988% → 92%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
11.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+1
11.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+3
7.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 14
-14
8.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19END OF GAME
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:3117% → 25%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
16.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
50
0
18.2%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
50
0
16.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
50
+18
14.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 18 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
22.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 16 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
26.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
24.5%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.5
TD · Q3 5:09
Damion Jones-Moore 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
-19.3
FG · Q4 9:30
Cole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com