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ARK

Arkansas 14 at Missouri 21

MIZ
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:05 · Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense−10.5Pregame prior−3.7Score differential−3.9Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:15: Keon Hatcher 12 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +7.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:41: Jimmie Hunt 4 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Bud Sasser Pass to Darius White for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +33.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:41: Andrew Baggett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ARK win probability +6.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:38: Marcus Murphy 12 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +27.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:03: Russell Hansbrough run for 16 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down — MIZ win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:37MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:13MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−4.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:23MIZ 4th & 17 at ARK 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:58MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:08ARK 4th & 10 at MIZ 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MIZ 4th & 10 at ARK 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05ARK 4th & 7 at MIZ 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:42MIZ 4th & 12 at ARK 18, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−2.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 39, up 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:17ARK 4th & 3 at MIZ 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−1.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:13ARK 4th & 6 at MIZ 34, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:42ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:36MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−7.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−22.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35ARK 4th & 5 at MIZ 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−2.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:48ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:15ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:41MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:38MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1542% → 42%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.0%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
42.2%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
42.4%
Christian Brinser punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 6:4458% → 60%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
42.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
42.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
42.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 7 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
42.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody Hollister, broken up by Braylon WebbSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
42.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 2
50
+3
42.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
42.9%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
43.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-10
42.8%
Collins, Alex rush for 1 yard to the MISSOURI33, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Skipper, Dan) 10 yards to the MISSOURI44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+15
43.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 15 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+6
43.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 6 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
40.2%
Jonathan Williams 23 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3FG
20 plays · 41 yds · 7:1441% → 43%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
41.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 4 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.0%
Maty Mauk run for 5 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 1 yd to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
41.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+16
40.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 16 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
42.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
42.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
42.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+11
41.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 11 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
42.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
42.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
41.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
41.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
42.5%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+9
41.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 9 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-12
41.7%
Maty Mauk sacked by Trey Flowers for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+52
43.4%
Andrew Baggett 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:5456% → 55%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Sebastian Tretola) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
44.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 19 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
42.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Sprinkle) to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
44.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody Hollister, broken up by Kenya DennisSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-1
44.3%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 16
OWN 33
0
44.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Alex CollinsSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 16
OWN 33
-4
44.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 48 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 15 Marcus Murphy fumbled, recovered by Misso Marcus MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2444% → 43%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
44.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 11 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
44.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-2
44.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+35
43.1%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 35 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3858% → 66%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
41.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
41.9%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+12
42.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
41.5%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete to Collins, Alex, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Tretola, Sebastian) 10 yards to the MISSOURI27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+6
41.6%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+9
40.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
33.6%
Keon Hatcher 12 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5034% → 32%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
34.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-4
34.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 41 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Bud Sasser) to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
33.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
32.7%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+5
32.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 36 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 5 yds to the Ark 37 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Carroll Washington) to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:2566% → 68%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
33.8%
Alex Collins run for 16 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Scherer) to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
32.3%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 46 Jonathan Williams fumbled, forced by Josh Augusta, recovered by Misso Donavin NewsomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
34.0%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted D.J. Dean return for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:2468% → 69%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
32.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Hunter Henry) to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+2
32.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 13
50
-5
32.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Sebastian Tretola) to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 18
OWN 45
-5
32.1%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+18
31.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 18 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
30.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
31.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
17 plays · 60 yds · 2:0230% → 33%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
29.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+13
30.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 13 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
31.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 5 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
31.5%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+13
30.7%
Maty Mauk run for 13 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
32.1%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to White, Darius, PENALTY ARKANSAS roughing passer (Philon, Darius) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
33.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-8
34.1%
Maty Mauk sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+9
31.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 9 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
33.0%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
31.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
32.5%
Andrew Baggett 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4171% → 70%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
29.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
50
+4
28.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
28.8%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
28.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13MISSED FG
18 plays · 73 yds · 5:1532% → 32%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
31.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
31.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 12 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
31.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 14 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
32.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
34.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
33.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
34.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jason Reese for 12 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
36.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
35.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 5 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+10
35.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
37.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 1 yd to the Ark 25 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
37.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bud Sasser) to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
37.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 11 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
37.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
37.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
34.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
31.5%
Andrew Baggett 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dan SkipperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:1870% → 73%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
29.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 16 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.4%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
27.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Alex CollinsSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
28.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+23
30.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill run for 23 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
26.2%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-1
25.4%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
25.6%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
27.4%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4828% → 26%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
28.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
28.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+19
25.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 19 yds Bud Sasser fumbled, forced by Jared Collins, recovered by Ark Rohan GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0376% → 76%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
23.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Misso 45 Jonathan Williams fumbled, forced by Donavin Newsom, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
23.4%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
22.6%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
22.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
24.2%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 32 yds, downed at the Misso 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 3:2426% → 63%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
25.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+12
25.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 12 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
25.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus Murphy, broken up by Trey FlowersSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
25.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+44
24.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 44 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
30.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 11 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
32.1%
Hansbrough, Russell rush for 1 yard to the ARKANSAS25, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Culkin, Sean) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+4
27.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+28
27.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 28 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.4%
Jimmie Hunt 4 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Bud Sasser Pass to Darius White for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5349% → 47%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.8%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
50.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.7%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
49.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
50.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
53.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:5556% → 92%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
56.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
56.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
50
+12
61.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 12 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
62.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
62.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+9
60.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
64.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
65.0%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
63.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
65.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
65.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
92.3%
Marcus Murphy 12 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
16 plays · 40 yds · 2:2912% → 6%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
87.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
86.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 3
OWN 44
-5
87.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 8
OWN 39
-5
89.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+15
90.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Shane Ray) to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
85.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
86.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
86.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Demetrius WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+9
87.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 9 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
87.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Misso 35 Alex Collins fumbled, forced by Markus Golden, recovered by Misso Markus GoldenSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
94.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 16 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4597% → 96%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 11
50
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Jimmie Hunt 4 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Bud Sasser Pass to Darius White for Two-Point Conversion)
+33.4
TD · Q4 4:38
Marcus Murphy 12 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)
+27
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:03
Russell Hansbrough run for 16 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com