Arkansas

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2686th
  Defense+0.0880th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.4%59th
  Defense39.5%74th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2959th
  Defense+1.2364th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2177th
  Defense+0.0374th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3478th
  Defense+0.1474th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.3%67th
  Defense47.7%47th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%51st
  Defense22.2%98th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3281st
  Defense2.8472nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.2%46th
  Defense19.1%73rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.5%44th
  Defense16.5%47th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Arkansas allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   RICE
2. W
   TEX
3. W
   GASO
4. W
   TA&M
5. L
   UGA
6. L
   MISS
7. L
   AUB
8. W
   UAPB
9. W
   MSST
10. W
    LSU
11. L
    ALA
12. W
    MIZ
13. W
    PSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Arkansas.

Players, 2021

1. KJ JeffersonQB349 plays · +0.305 pts/play · 32nd of 219 QBs
   1.99WAR1.23 to 2.70
2. Dominique JohnsonRB90 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 122nd of 387 RBs
   0.35WAR0.27 to 0.43
3. Raheim SandersRB86 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 136th of 387 RBs
   0.33WAR0.25 to 0.39
4. Treylon BurksWR78 plays · +0.219 pts/play · 18th of 474 WRs
   0.32WAR0.23 to 0.41
5. Trelon SmithRB88 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 173rd of 387 RBs
   0.27WAR0.17 to 0.36
6. Cam LittlePK20 plays · +0.272 pts/play · 30th of 128 kickers
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
7. Tyson MorrisWR22 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 299th of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.09
8. Warren ThompsonWR25 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 327th of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Arkansas's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  72372328th of 130Roster talent: 723, 28th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21421427th of 130Recruiting: 214, 27th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  51%51%103rd of 128Returning production: 51%, 103rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +13.8+13.822nd of 130SP+ rating: +13.8, 22nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Arkansas's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MSSTQ3 4:38 4th & 2 at MSST 33, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
2. vs RICEQ4 9:50 4th & 2 at RICE 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
3. at ALAQ4 7:30 4th & 4 at ARK 7, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. at LSUQ4 9:09 4th & 3 at ARK 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at LSUQ2 7:32 4th & 4 at ARK 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs TEXQ3 2:08 4th & 4 at TEX 4, up 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs MIZQ2 1:28 4th & 1 at ARK 34, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs AUBQ1 3:28 4th & 3 at AUB 41, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

16th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Arkansas's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   RICE
2. W

   TEX
3. W

   GASO
4. W

   TA&M
5. L

   UGA
6. L

   MISS
7. L

   AUB
8. W

   UAPB
9. W

   MSST
10. W

    LSU
11. L

    ALA
12. W

    MIZ
13. W

    PSU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Arkansas's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.43
• Clock−0.25
• Timeouts+0.23
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.29

Game by game

• RICEW 38-17 vs RICE91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14
• TEXW 40-21 vs TEX33% → 99%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +51, Possession & field position +1
• GASOW 45-10 vs GASO94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• TA&MW 20-10 vs TA&M33% → 97%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +2
• UGAL 0-37 at UGA10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −13
• MISSL 51-52 at MISS32% → 41%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +9: Possession & field position +7, Timeouts −2
• AUBL 23-38 vs AUB60% → 1%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3
• UAPBW 45-3 vs UAPB100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• MSSTW 31-28 vs MSST59% → 68%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +10, Possession & field position −5
• LSUW 16-13 at LSU52% → 72%Before kickoff +2 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +39, Clock −23
• ALAL 35-42 at ALA9% → 3%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts −1
• MIZW 34-17 vs MIZ81% → 99%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23
• PSUW 24-10 vs PSU55% → 99%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Arkansas's side.

Closest call

ARK 41-38 TCU (2016) - Arkansas dropped to a 2.1% win probability before pulling it out.