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ARK

Arkansas 16 at LSU 13

LSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:36 · Reid Bauer run for 23 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 126Home team on offense−4.5Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Pregame prior−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:01: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 43 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +16.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:37: Cam Little 27 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +5.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:53: Cade York 45 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Ark 25 KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LSU 21 — ARK win probability +24.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Cam Little 37 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +12.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:35LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59ARK 4th & 5 at LSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14LSU 4th & 9 at ARK 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:51ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:51LSU 4th & 2 at ARK 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:47LSU 4th & 6 at ARK 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:12ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:50ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:46LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:52ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:32ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:12LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:22ARK 4th & 12 at LSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:36LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:09ARK 4th & 4 at LSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−2.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:23LSU 4th & 5 at ARK 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:36ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:37ARK 4th & 7 at LSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−14.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00LSU 4th & 1 at ARK 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−5.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−7.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:53LSU 4th & 7 at ARK 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−12.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:09ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:58LSU 4th & 3 at ARK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−5.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−5.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:54ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:17LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−3.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:52LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:01ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2548% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
48.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+26
48.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 49 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 26 yds to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3652% → 52%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
48.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
48.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
48.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+3
48.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
48.4%
Cam Little 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 5:4548% → 49%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
48.4%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
48.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
48.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
48.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
48.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+11
48.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 11 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
48.8%
WILLIAMS, Josh rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the ARK41 (POOL, Bumper). PENALTY LSU Holding on MARTINEZ, Marlon enforced 10 yards from the ARK45 to the LSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 20
OWN 45
-2
48.6%
Armoni Goodwin run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 22
OWN 43
+15
48.5%
JOHNSON, Max pass to the left incomplete intended for LEE, Devonta thrown to the ARK28. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on BROWN, Montaric enforced 15 yards to the ARK42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
48.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
48.8%
Max Johnson sacked by Taurean Carter for 0 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
48.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2351% → 50%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
48.9%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
49.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
49.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 21
OWN 9
+12
50.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 12 yds to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0450% → 51%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
49.8%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
49.7%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+5
49.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
50.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
50.3%
DAVIS-PRICE, Tyrion rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ARK23 (HENRY, Hayden). PENALTY ARK Offsides on BLAIR, Simeon enforced 5 yards from the ARK24 to the ARK19 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
50.2%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
50.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+1
49.7%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+34
51.2%
Cade York 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2750% → 49%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
49.9%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
50.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Micah Baskerville for 0 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
50.5%
Treylon Burks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+10
51.3%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 10 yds to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:2053% → 58%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
52.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
58.2%
Jack Bech 29 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0244% → 42%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
56.1%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
56.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+21
57.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 57 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 21 yds to the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0458% → 57%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
58.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-5
57.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
57.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
56.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
56.5%
Avery Atkins punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5443% → 41%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.0%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
57.3%
Treylon Burks run for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-3
57.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
59.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:2160% → 62%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
60.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+17
60.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 17 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
60.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Mashburn for 18 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-12
61.7%
run for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 30 fumbled, recovered by Ark Greg Brooks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5941% → 40%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
58.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.2%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
58.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+2
57.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 2 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2062% → 61%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.7%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
61.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
60.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
60.5%
Avery Atkins punt for 52 yds, downed at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5039% → 33%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
61.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
60.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
61.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
60.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
59.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
61.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-3
64.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
66.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4666% → 65%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
65.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+11
65.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey Palmer for 11 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
65.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-3
66.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+4
65.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 44 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:3633% → 35%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
66.9%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
65.3%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
67.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+28
64.8%
Trelon Smith run for 28 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:5135% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
64.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
64.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
63.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
64.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 19 yds to the LSU 25 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Warren Thompson) to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 9
OPP 43
-1
61.7%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
61.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
62.1%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
65.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Damone Clark for 0 yards to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4671% → 72%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
70.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey Palmer for 8 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
70.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
69.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
70.9%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by John Ridgeway for 0 yards to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+10
69.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
69.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+55
71.5%
Cade York 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:2233% → 53%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for no gain to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
67.4%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+9
69.1%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for WARREN, De'Vion thrown to the ARK45. PENALTY LSU Pass Interference on MCGLOTHERN, Dwight enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the ARK45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
65.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
64.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
47.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 43 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1755% → 57%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
55.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey Palmer for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
55.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted return for no gain to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:0750% → 60%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
49.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 23 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.8%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
46.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
46.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+23
48.2%
Reid Bauer run for 23 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
43.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
43.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
45.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
39.7%
Cam Little 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:4443% → 57%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
43.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offsides (Eric Gregory) to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kole Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
45.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+13
48.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
49.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey Palmer for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
49.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
48.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
46.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
51.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
51.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
48.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
57.1%
Cade York 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3151% → 48%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
49.5%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-15
51.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey Knox) to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+15
51.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 15 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
52.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
51.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1156% → 59%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
55.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
56.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
54.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Devonta Lee for 12 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
59.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 14 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
62.0%
Trey Palmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
59.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+10
56.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 10 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
58.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0454% → 51%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
46.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
46.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
45.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
46.3%
JOHNSON, Dominique rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ARK48 (CLARK, Damone;JONES JR., Mike). PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Formation on JEFFERSON, K.J. enforced 5 yards from the ARK48 to the ARK43, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 1 yards on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
49.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 52 yds , Trey Palmer returns for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3755% → 55%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
54.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+11
55.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
56.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 13 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
57.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
60.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey Palmer for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
60.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
58.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
55.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29FG
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Ark 25 KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
41.1%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Hayden Henry for 0 yards to the Ark 35 KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
28.4%
Cam Little 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-28.4
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Ark 25 KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LSU 21
-24.5
TD · Q3 6:01
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 43 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com