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AUB

Auburn 38 at Arkansas 23

ARK
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:28 · KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson Morris
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense−37.2Pregame prior+0.2Score differential−17.9Garbage-time factor−16.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +13.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:30: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 30 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +11.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:16: Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 71 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +20.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Dominique Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARK win probability +17.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 10:35: Anders Carlson 29 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +7.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:37ARK 4th & 12 at AUB 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:38AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28ARK 4th & 3 at AUB 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 16, up 4
    Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17ARK 4th & 5 at AUB 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:21ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:34AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:24ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:34AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:27ARK 4th & 3 at AUB 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:35AUB 4th & 7 at ARK 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−16.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:41ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:28ARK 4th & 10 at AUB 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:16AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:59AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:18ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:30ARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:16AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:30AUB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3940% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
60.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Brandon Council) to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
60.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
59.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
59.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 10 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
58.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3359% → 59%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
59.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
58.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
50
+14
59.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
58.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
59.0%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
58.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 5 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
58.6%
AJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
58.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-1
58.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
58.6%
Cam Little 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5341% → 42%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
58.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
58.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
58.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+4
58.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Landen King for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
58.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:0258% → 59%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
58.2%
Trelon Smith run for 10 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
58.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 12 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
59.0%
Trelon Smith run for 10 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
59.3%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
59.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
59.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
58.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0242% → 42%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
58.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
57.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
58.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
58.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4559% → 58%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.7%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
58.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
58.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
58.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-1
58.7%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
57.6%
Cam Little 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:0943% → 54%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
55.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+19
55.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Landen King for 19 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
54.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
53.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 11 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
53.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+17
53.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 17 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.4%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 57 yds · 3:2947% → 44%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
47.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
46.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
46.7%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
45.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 19 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
47.4%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
46.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
46.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
47.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
47.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
46.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
45.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
44.1%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:1956% → 60%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
43.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+11
43.2%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Capers, Ze'Vian, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Bishop, LaDarrius) 11 yards to the AUBURN34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
43.0%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.7%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
41.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 10 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
40.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-1
39.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
39.7%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Montaric Brown return for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 2:3240% → 55%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
40.0%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Zakoby McClain) to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
40.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+2
39.3%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+15
38.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
41.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
42.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
42.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 7 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
44.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 3 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
44.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+9
44.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
41.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 7 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
55.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2052% → 68%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
51.7%
AJ Green run for 7 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Derick Hall) to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
54.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
54.4%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+20
52.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 20 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
56.8%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
68.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 30 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4437% → 35%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
62.7%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
65.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0365% → 64%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
64.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
66.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
65.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Hudson HenrySimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+8
64.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for 8 yds to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4637% → 34%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Luke DealSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
63.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 5 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Landen KingSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 57 yds, downed at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:4965% → 45%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
64.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-6
64.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 6Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
45.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 6 yards, Jefferson fumbled, forced by Hall, recovered by Aub Marcus Harris for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4848% → 48%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
50.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 8 yds to the Ark 40 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (De'Vion Warren) to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
48.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 17 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
51.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 16 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
52.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+1
51.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+1
47.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
27.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 71 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0628% → 47%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
27.5%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
26.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
26.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 19 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
28.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
29.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
28.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
27.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 11 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
30.6%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
29.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+14
28.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
29.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
47.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:1964% → 80%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
34.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+21
31.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 21 yds to the ARKANSAS 34 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
29.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
29.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
30.8%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Robertson, Demetris, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Clark, Hudson) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
28.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
27.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-2
28.4%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
20.5%
Anders Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4924% → 21%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
21.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0482% → 98%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
15.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
15.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kilian Zierer) to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
11.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
10.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
9.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
8.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 15 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
7.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+6
6.8%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
5.8%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Brandon Council) to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+2
5.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+23
2.1%
Bo Nix run for 23 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
3.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 6 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
3.1%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
2.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 16 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
2.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
2.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
2.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
1.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
1.5%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:16
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 71 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-20
TD · Q3 0:00
Dominique Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+17.5
TD · Q2 0:18
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com