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GASO

Georgia Southern 10 at Arkansas 45

ARK
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:38 · Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+30.6Score differential+23.1Garbage-time factor+9.5Blowout margin+9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:42: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 14 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Justin Tomlin run for 76 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +3.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Alex Raynor 32 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +2.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:26: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 60 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:18: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 91 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:19GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:01GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:07GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:25ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:17ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:38GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:26ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:11GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:23ARK 4th & 7 at GASO 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 11 at ARK 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:32GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:53GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:38ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:59GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:55ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 34, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:09GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:23GASO 4th & 12 at ARK 34, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:37GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:19ARK 4th & 2 at GASO 44, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:07ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:22GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:26ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:18ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:22ARK Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:356% → 7%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
93.8%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.7%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
93.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 53 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 6 yds to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0494% → 94%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+47
93.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 47 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
93.5%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+8
93.4%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.6%
Trelon Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:587% → 7%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
93.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Amare Jones for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre Williams) to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
93.4%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 39 Justin Tomlin fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Justin TomlinSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+2
93.3%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+2
93.3%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
93.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
19 plays · 94 yds · 6:2393% → 94%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
93.2%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
93.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+1
92.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 4
OWN 12
+5
92.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (NaJee Thompson) to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
92.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 17 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
92.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
92.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Benz Josue) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+7
93.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+8
93.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 8 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
92.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
92.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+18
92.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 18 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
92.8%
AJ Green run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
92.7%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+10
92.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaquayln Crawford for 10 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
92.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Myron Cunningham) to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
92.6%
Treylon Burks run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
93.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:187% → 7%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.4%
Khaleb Hood run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
93.3%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for 6 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
93.1%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+8
93.2%
Justin Tomlin run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+8
93.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2694% → 93%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
93.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Ty Clary) to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
93.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:417% → 7%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
93.0%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+6
93.1%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+6
93.0%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+41
93.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 41 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1094% → 93%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
93.6%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
93.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+2
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+23
93.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the ARKANSAS 25 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Deon Edwards) to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:327% → 7%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.7%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
92.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
92.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Logan WrightSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+10
92.9%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Dexter Carter Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 54 yds, downed at the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 1:4793% → 97%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
93.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
93.3%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+6
93.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+24
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 24 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+48
93.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 48 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
96.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 14 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:114% → 7%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.1%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+76
92.9%
Justin Tomlin run for 76 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4393% → 93%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.0%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
93.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
92.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.4%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-3
92.4%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:3693% → 95%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
92.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 44 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 12 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 21 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
93.3%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
93.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Beaux Limmer) to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
93.4%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 0
OPP 12
+5
93.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dillon Springer) to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
94.8%
Cam Little 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15END OF HALF
16 plays · 60 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.2%
Khaleb Hood run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
94.1%
Logan Wright run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
94.0%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
93.8%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+19
93.7%
Gerald Green run for 19 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
93.1%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
93.0%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+14
93.2%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
92.8%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 1 yd to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-2
93.2%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 15 Justin Tomlin fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Justin TomlinSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
93.7%
Alex Raynor 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1794% → 98%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.5%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
93.4%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
93.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
97.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 60 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:463% → 3%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.0%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
97.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Tre Williams) to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.9%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
97.0%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
99.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 91 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
Khaleb Hood run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.5%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Dexter Carter Jr.Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.5%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
99.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Myron Cunningham) to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 14
OWN 22
0
99.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
99.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 7 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
99.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Aaron Dowdell) to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-4
99.6%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for 9 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.7%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Emil SmithSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.8%
Justin Tomlin run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Caleb Kelly) to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Khaleb Hood run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
99.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Catalon) to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Logan WrightSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-5
99.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Aaron Dowdell) to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Chase HancockSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:46100% → 100%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+10
99.8%
Malik Hornsby run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Malik Hornsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-10
99.8%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+17
99.8%
AJ Green run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+11
99.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.9%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jaquayln Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Jalen White for 10 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Gerald GreenSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 49 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 13 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Javion Hunt run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Bryce StephensSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.9%
Josh Oglesby run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Javion Hunt run for 3 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Javion Hunt run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Josh Oglesby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Josh Oglesby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Javion Hunt run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:26
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 60 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 8:42
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 14 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 7:22
Justin Tomlin run for 76 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com