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ARK

Arkansas 35 at Alabama 42

ALA
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-13.4ALA 79.4%Reid Bauer pass complete to Blake Kernfor 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 34 · Q4 11:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:24 · Reid Bauer pass complete to Blake Kern for 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+6.0Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:40: Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +7.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 10:09: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 66 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +5.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:24: Reid Bauer pass complete to Blake Kern for 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +13.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:39: Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 40 yds for a TD, (B. Young Run For Two-point Conversion) — ALA win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:02: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +12.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:44ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34ALA 4th & 1 at ARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41ALA 4th & 8 at ARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:30ARK 4th & 11 at ALA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:11ALA 4th & 14 at ARK 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:40ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:26ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:15ALA 4th & 29 at ARK 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:09ALA 4th & 8 at ARK 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24ARK 4th & 9 at ALA 32, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:30ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 7, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 14:54ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:06ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:21ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:40ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:44ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:09ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:24ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:39ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:02ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:019% → 9%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
91.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 12 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
91.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
90.9%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+1
90.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
90.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:0191% → 90%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
90.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
90.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 10 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
90.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
90.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
90.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
90.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
90.1%
Bryce Young sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+13
89.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 13 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
89.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-1
89.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
89.3%
TEAM run for 1 yd to the Ark 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Alab Dallas TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3490% → 90%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
89.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
89.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
89.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
89.5%
Will Reichard 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:0011% → 11%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
89.4%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
89.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+11
89.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 11 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
88.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-4
88.3%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-1
88.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds, downed at the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 3:0688% → 90%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
88.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+25
87.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 25 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
87.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 25 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
88.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 12 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
87.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
87.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+20
89.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 20 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3211% → 10%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
89.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:4489% → 89%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
89.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-3
89.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+33
89.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 33 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
89.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darrian Dalcourt) to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
89.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+6
88.9%
Bryce Young run for 6 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
88.9%
James Burnip punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:4910% → 17%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+32
89.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 32 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.1%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-8
88.9%
Treylon Burks run for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 30 Treylon Burks fumbled, recovered by Ark De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+15
89.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
89.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
88.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
88.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
88.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+10
88.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 10 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for no gain to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
87.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trelon Smith for 8 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
83.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2485% → 89%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
84.7%
Bryce Young sacked by Zach Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+79
89.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 79 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3011% → 19%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.0%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
88.4%
Trelon Smith run for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
88.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 16 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
87.9%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-10
87.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 41 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (KJ Jefferson) to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+40
88.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 40 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4184% → 90%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
84.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 10 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
84.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+12
84.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
90.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:0911% → 11%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.0%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
88.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
88.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+1
88.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 9
OWN 43
-3
88.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds , Slade Bolden returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 5 Slade Bolden fumbled, recovered by Alab Slade Bolden ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
88.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1989% → 94%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
88.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
89.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 28 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
89.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
89.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+12
89.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 12 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
89.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
94.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Christian Leary for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:066% → 12%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
94.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
88.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 66 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5089% → 88%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+24
88.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 24 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+38
89.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 38 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
89.8%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
89.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damieon George Jr.) to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
89.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 1 yd to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-16
89.4%
Bryce Young sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 16 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 29
+47
88.0%
Will Reichard 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4012% → 10%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 4 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
87.8%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-7
88.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+1
89.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 50 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:0189% → 93%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+25
88.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 25 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
90.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+15
90.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
90.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 12 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
90.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Simeon Blair for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+3
90.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 3 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+3
89.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
93.3%
Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:367% → 21%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
92.2%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.9%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
92.0%
Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
91.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Raheim SandersSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+27
92.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 27 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
90.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+8
91.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-5
92.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
92.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 4
OPP 27
-5
92.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+32
79.4%
Reid Bauer pass complete to Blake Kern for 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2687% → 90%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
86.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 27 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
89.0%
Bryce Young run for 16 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
89.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
90.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+20
90.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 20 yds Cameron Latu fumbled, forced by Montaric Brown, recovered by Ark Montaric BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1519% → 12%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
81.4%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
81.6%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
87.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
87.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:4191% → 98%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
91.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
91.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
91.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-5
91.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+40
97.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 40 yds for a TD, (B. Young Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:273% → 14%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
96.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 2 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
97.3%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-1
97.5%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+16
97.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
50
-6
97.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 16
OWN 44
-1
97.8%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+15
97.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brian Branch) to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
97.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 7 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+14
96.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:24
Reid Bauer pass complete to Blake Kern for 32 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q4 1:02
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 3:40
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com