Try the model
TEX

Texas 21 at Arkansas 40

ARK
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.1ARK 70.0%Cam Little 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 16 · Q2 3:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:00 · Cam Little 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense+13.1Pregame prior−9.4Score differential+6.0Garbage-time factor+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:34: Cam Little 24 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +6.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:17: Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +13.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:16: Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +10.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:50: Raheim Sanders run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +8.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:33: Casey Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:36ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:32TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:49ARK 4th & 2 at TEX 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:03ARK 4th & 6 at TEX 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:43TEX 4th & 15 at ARK 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:49TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:02TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00ARK 4th & 4 at TEX 26, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:36TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:14TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:13TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:08ARK 4th & 4 at TEX 4, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−6.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:26TEX 4th & 2 at ARK 2, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:55ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:17TEX Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:16ARK Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:50ARK Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:33TEX Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:27ARK Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:26TEX Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2434% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
33.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
33.5%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
33.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 3 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
33.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trelon Smith for 10 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
34.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3766% → 65%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
34.2%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+5
34.6%
Hudson Card run for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
35.0%
Cameron Dicker punt for 54 yds , Greg Brooks Jr. returns for no gain to the Ark 4 Greg Brooks Jr. fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5235% → 36%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
35.0%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 3Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+16
35.1%
Trelon Smith run for 16 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
35.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
35.4%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
35.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 9 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
35.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2864% → 63%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
35.5%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
36.2%
Hudson Card sacked by Grant Morgan and Tre Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
36.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:2037% → 40%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
36.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
37.3%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
37.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trelon SmithSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
38.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
38.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+12
38.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
39.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
39.6%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
39.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
39.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 3 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
40.1%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:1160% → 58%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.2%
Hudson Card run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
40.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 25 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
39.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 20 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
39.0%
Hudson Card run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-5
39.0%
Hudson Card sacked by John Ridgeway for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
40.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
41.3%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+52
42.2%
Cameron Dicker 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4042% → 50%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
41.5%
Trelon Smith run for 22 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
43.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 6 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
43.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 7 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
44.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 20 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
44.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+9
44.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
49.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5150% → 47%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
49.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-1
49.8%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
52.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
52.8%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
53.5%
Cameron Dicker punt blocked by Jake Yurachek blocked by Jake YurachekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4153% → 60%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
52.7%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
53.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 1 yd to the Texas 6Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
53.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
60.0%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1342% → 39%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
58.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Juan Davis for no gain to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
60.2%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
60.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4562% → 70%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
61.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 8 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
62.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+34
62.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 34 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
65.0%
AJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
65.2%
AJ Green run for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
64.9%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
70.0%
Cam Little 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0933% → 31%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
66.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
66.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
66.7%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-5
67.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+8
69.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 8 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
68.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
70.8%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3128% → 26%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
71.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
73.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.7%
Cameron Dicker punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2276% → 76%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
76.0%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-9
76.3%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted B.J. Foster return for 9 yds to the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1330% → 39%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
69.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
70.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
70.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
71.4%
Hudson Card run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+9
74.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 1:4467% → 82%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
66.8%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+45
66.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 45 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
70.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 19 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
71.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 12 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
71.5%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:5021% → 19%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
79.0%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
79.6%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
80.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 11 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
78.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
78.1%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
80.8%
Hudson Card run for 3 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-1
81.3%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5289% → 94%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
89.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
89.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
89.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
90.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 11 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
90.4%
Trelon Smith run for 9 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
90.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
91.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.6%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
93.7%
Cam Little 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.0%
Hudson Card sacked by Zach Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 26 Hudson Card fumbled, recovered by Ark , return for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:571% → 8%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.4%
Casey Thompson run for 5 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.4%
Casey Thompson run for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
99.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+15
99.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.5%
Casey Thompson run for 8 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
99.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.9%
Casey Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3397% → 100%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.8%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
97.0%
AJ Green run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
97.4%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
97.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
97.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
97.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
97.9%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+30
99.8%
AJ Green run for 30 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:520% → 2%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Keilan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 15 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Casey Thompson run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-1
99.8%
Keilan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+16
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 16 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.8%
Casey Thompson run for 9 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
99.8%
Keilan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 15 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.8%
Keilan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Keilan Robinson run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Keilan Robinson run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.3%
Josh Oglesby run for 2 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+29
99.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 29 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-3
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 8:16
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 1:50
Raheim Sanders run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com