Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 10 at Arkansas 20

ARK
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:52 · Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+9.4Pregame prior−5.6Garbage-time factor+4.4Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:27: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 85 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:55: KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 48 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +12.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:51: Isaiah Spiller run for 67 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +15.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:46: KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon Burks — ARK win probability +5.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:55: Dominique Johnson run for 16 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST down — ARK win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:37TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20ARK 4th & 9 at TA&M 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:38TA&M 4th & 21 at ARK 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:17TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:39TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−4.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:29ARK 4th & 1 at TA&M 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−2.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21TA&M 4th & 10 at ARK 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:04ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:04TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:07ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:52ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−4.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:43TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:45ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:39ARK 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−12.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:04TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:17ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 28, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:58TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:27ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:55ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:51TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:1867% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
33.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
33.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 1 yd to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
33.3%
Zach Calzada run for 5 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
33.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
33.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
34.0%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
34.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1534% → 36%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
34.2%
Trelon Smith run for 16 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
34.5%
Trelon Smith run for 15 yds to the Ark 45 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+12
34.9%
Trelon Smith run for 12 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
35.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 23 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
35.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
35.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
36.0%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
36.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
36.2%
Cam Little 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 30 yds · 5:2264% → 60%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
36.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 19 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
36.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Max Wright for 8 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
36.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
36.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
36.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
37.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.0%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-6
37.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-5
39.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 21
OPP 45
0
39.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
39.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1139% → 43%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
38.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+85
42.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 85 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5856% → 54%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
44.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
44.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
44.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+2
46.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 41 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 2 yds to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:2045% → 59%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
44.8%
Warren Thompson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 27 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
46.1%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
46.6%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+48
59.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 48 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:1144% → 38%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
56.8%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
57.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
58.5%
Calzada, Zach pass complete to Smith, Ainias for 15 yards to the TEXASAM47, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal touching 0 yards to the TEXASAM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-10
59.8%
Calzada, Zach pass complete to Achane, Devon for 6 yards to the TEXASAM38, PENALTY TEXASAM holding 10 yards to the TEXASAM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 25
OWN 22
0
60.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 25
OWN 22
+4
61.0%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the TexAM 26 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 21
OWN 26
+1
61.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 54 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 1 yd to the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2465% → 64%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
64.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
65.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
64.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon Burks, broken up by Antonio JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+30
63.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the ARKANSAS 40 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:2139% → 35%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
61.5%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+2
61.9%
Calzada, Zach pass incomplete to Spiller, Isaiah, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 2 yards to the TEXASAM47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
61.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 7 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-4
60.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 7
50
-3
62.8%
Zach Calzada sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
64.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0568% → 77%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
67.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+19
67.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
68.8%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 22 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+21
69.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.2%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
72.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
71.5%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Burks, Treylon, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference 15 yards to the TEXASAM42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
73.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
73.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
77.4%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-10
77.9%
Jefferson, KJ rush for 9 yards to the TEXASAM24, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the TEXASAM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 22
OPP 43
+21
77.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 21 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
76.5%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:0429% → 32%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
71.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 14 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.3%
Calzada, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 3 yards to the TEXASAM39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
69.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 6 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
69.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the TexAM 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexAM Devon AchaneSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+11
70.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
68.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.7%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
68.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
70.1%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
67.9%
Seth Small 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5172% → 72%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
72.6%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.6%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
74.0%
AJ Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
73.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ GreenSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
72.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5627% → 24%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
72.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 16Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+4
73.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 4 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-1
74.7%
Zach Calzada sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
75.8%
Nik Constantinou punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3878% → 78%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
77.9%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
79.1%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
78.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+26
78.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the ARKANSAS 10 ARKANSAS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5923% → 38%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
77.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
77.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
62.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 67 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 3:5468% → 67%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
67.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
70.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 5
OWN 46
0
71.2%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
71.9%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
72.5%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+1
70.2%
Malik Hornsby run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 13
50
-8
69.4%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Aaron Hansford for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0534% → 27%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
66.1%
Devon Achane run for 8 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+8
64.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 8 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
65.3%
Calzada, Zach pass complete to Smith, Ainias for 8 yards to the TEXASAM42, PENALTY TEXASAM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TEXASAM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-10
67.1%
Zach Calzada sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 25
OWN 19
+18
70.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 18 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
69.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-5
71.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5576% → 78%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
75.5%
Malik Hornsby run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+19
77.0%
Trelon Smith run for 19 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.7%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
78.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
79.6%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+55
77.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the ARKANSAS 20 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20INT
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:3524% → 25%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
75.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 23 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted Montaric Brown return for no gain to the TexAM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1683% → 87%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
83.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 16 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
83.8%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+1
84.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
84.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
85.5%
Treylon Burks run for 14 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.5%
Malik Hornsby pass incomplete to Jaquayln CrawfordSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
85.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
85.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 6Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
85.3%
Malik Hornsby pass incomplete to Blake KernSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
87.3%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2415% → 10%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
86.5%
Calzada, Zach rush for 8 yards to the TEXASAM40, PENALTY TEXASAM holding 10 yards to the TEXASAM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+10
88.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 10 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
89.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 57 yds, downed at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4389% → 92%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
89.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-3
89.9%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+10
90.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 10 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
90.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
91.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
93.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:138% → 6%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
92.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 36Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+11
93.9%
Zach Calzada run for 11 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
92.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah Spiller TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:4796% → 97%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
95.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
96.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+10
96.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
97.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the TexAM 16Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
97.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-4
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
Isaiah Spiller run for 67 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 13:55
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 48 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+12.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:55
Dominique Johnson run for 16 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST down
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com