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ARK

Arkansas 28 at Texas A&M 35

TA&M
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-10.6TA&M 57.3%Sam Irwin-Hill run for 51 yds for aTD, (John Henson KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 14 · Q2 1:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:03 · Sam Irwin-Hill run for 51 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 86Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense−7.0Garbage-time factor−2.8Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:03: Sam Irwin-Hill run for 51 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +10.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:02: AJ Derby 44 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick) — ARK win probability +17.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:59: Edward Pope 86 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Josh Lambo Kick) — TA&M win probability +17.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:08: Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 59 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +44.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +31.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:01TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13TA&M 4th & 5 at ARK 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:59ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:21TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:42ARK 4th & 9 at TA&M 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:27TA&M 4th & 6 at ARK 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:11TA&M 4th & 1 at ARK 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−3.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−14.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:55TA&M 4th & 17 at TA&M 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:42ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:34ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:44ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:27TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:29ARK 4th & 6 at TA&M 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:18ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−11.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:55TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:06ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:21ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:06TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:03ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:02ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:59TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:08TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:0081% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
80.5%
Brandon Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+21
80.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 6 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Henre' Toliver) to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
80.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
80.6%
Brandon Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:3920% → 22%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+28
80.5%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 28 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
80.3%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+8
80.3%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
80.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 13 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
80.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 16
OPP 23
+1
80.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+13
80.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 13 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
78.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5879% → 78%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
78.8%
Trey Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 10Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
78.7%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TexAM 10Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
78.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
78.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4622% → 23%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
77.8%
Korliss Marshall run for 8 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
77.5%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
77.5%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 43 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by TexAM Shaan WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2479% → 78%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
78.6%
Speedy Noil run for 10 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
78.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.6%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+1
78.4%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
77.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 38 yds, downed at the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0522% → 23%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
77.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+9
77.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 9 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
77.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+1
76.9%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 19 Alex Collins fumbled, recovered by Ark Alex Collins Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
76.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
76.6%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
76.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3277% → 76%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
77.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
76.7%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
76.1%
Drew Kaser punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:5424% → 32%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
75.8%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
74.9%
Alex Collins run for 5 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
74.6%
Korliss Marshall run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 1
50
0
73.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 1
50
+50
68.5%
Alex Collins run for 50 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:4070% → 78%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
69.9%
Trey Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
70.8%
Trey Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
69.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Trey WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
69.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trey Flowers) to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+10
70.3%
Kenny Hill run for 10 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
70.5%
Tra Carson run for 24 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
71.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 12 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
71.5%
Trey Williams run for no gain to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
77.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1726% → 29%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
72.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 1
50
+2
71.4%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
70.4%
Allen, Brandon pass incomplete to Hatcher, Keon, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Harris, De'Vante) 10 yards to the TEXASAM38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
70.4%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-10
69.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dan Skipper) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+7
70.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
69.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
71.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:0874% → 74%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.2%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-4
73.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Brandon Alexander) to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
73.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
74.1%
Trey Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
74.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 9 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
75.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 29 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
76.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 6 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
76.2%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-5
75.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Cameron Clear) to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
75.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
73.8%
Josh Lambo 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:2030% → 43%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
69.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 12 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.9%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+15
70.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 15 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.5%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
66.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
67.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+51
57.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill run for 51 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:4759% → 57%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to James WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
58.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
58.8%
Trey Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
58.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
57.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+7
56.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 53 yds , D.J. Dean returns for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
56.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0845% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
54.8%
AJ Derby run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
54.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
55.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
52.5%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
53.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
53.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1553% → 54%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
52.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Tra Carson for 6 yds to the TexAM 25 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Edward Pope) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 14
OWN 15
+5
52.5%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+50
52.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 50 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
57.7%
Trey Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+6
55.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
53.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 4:0351% → 77%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
49.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
47.4%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
45.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Sebastian Tretola) to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+14
46.4%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 14 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
43.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
42.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 6 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
40.5%
Korliss Marshall run for 2 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
22.8%
AJ Derby 44 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0027% → 23%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
26.7%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
26.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+15
25.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Trey Williams for 15 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
27.6%
Trey Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
27.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
50
-4
27.9%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-3
25.0%
Malcome Kennedy run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
23.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
22.5%
Drew Kaser punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:0280% → 86%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
20.0%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
19.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+17
18.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-13
16.2%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 44 ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Dan Skipper) to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 23
OWN 29
+4
18.0%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
14.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+6
14.5%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
14.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:1517% → 35%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
17.2%
Trey Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+86
34.6%
Edward Pope 86 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Josh Lambo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1170% → 74%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
30.0%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
30.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+7
31.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+39
26.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 39 yds , Speedy Noil returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:4931% → 30%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
31.1%
Tra Carson run for 9 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+11
33.8%
Tra Carson run for 11 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
34.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Clear) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
30.2%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Carroll Washington return for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3276% → 79%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
24.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
23.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
21.7%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
20.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0625% → 22%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
25.4%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
24.4%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
24.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
22.0%
Drew Kaser punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:4484% → 89%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
16.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 12 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
15.0%
Jonathan Williams run for 17 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
12.6%
Alex Collins run for 17 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
10.8%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 33 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark Brandon AllenSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+5
9.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+1
8.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
11.0%
John Henson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:1218% → 62%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
17.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 14 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
61.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 59 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3350% → 45%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
50.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
48.8%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-5
54.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Alan Turner) to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
50.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
55.3%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:3956% → 56%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
56.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 13 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
55.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 7 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 12%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
80.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
80.4%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 24Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+8
87.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 8 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
88.3%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:08
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 59 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
+44.1
TD · OT 0:00
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
+31
TD · Q3 5:02
AJ Derby 44 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (John Henson Kick)
-17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com