Ball State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1240th
  Defense+0.1737th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.2%53rd
  Defense46.1%19th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.064th
  Defense+1.1083rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0223rd
  Defense+0.1244th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2561st
  Defense+0.2435th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.9%54th
  Defense51.3%13th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%35th
  Defense33.3%46th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6224th
  Defense3.0824th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.3%30th
  Defense14.3%7th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.9%10th
  Defense2.4%73rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ball State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   COLG
2. L
   IOWA
3. L
   INST
4. L
   TOL
5. L
   ARMY
6. L
   WMU
7. W
   CMU
8. W
   AKR
9. L
   NIU
10. L
    MASS
11. W
    EMU
12. W
    BGSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ball State.

Players, 2014

1. Jack MilasQB228 plays · +0.244 pts/play · 98th of 199 QBs
   1.04WAR0.63 to 1.43
2. Ozzie MannQB123 plays · +0.264 pts/play · 136th of 199 QBs
   0.61WAR0.42 to 0.80
3. Jahwan EdwardsRB240 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 18th of 350 RBs
   0.52WAR0.34 to 0.69
4. Scott SecorPK22 plays · +0.454 pts/play · 11th of 114 kickers
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.25
5. KeVonn MabonWR59 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 111th of 469 WRs
   0.16WAR0.06 to 0.26
6. Horactio BanksRB50 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 231st of 350 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
7. Kyle SchmidtP41 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 51st of 94 punters
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.15
8. Corey LacanariaWR25 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 265th of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ball State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ball State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.19 of the 0.29 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WMUQ4 7:25 4th & 1 at BALL 42, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. vs WMUQ3 6:07 4th & 1 at BALL 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
3. at CMUQ3 1:02 4th & 3 at CMU 3, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
4. at ARMYQ3 7:46 4th & 1 at BALL 10, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
5. at IOWAQ4 9:50 4th & 3 at IOWA 43, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
6. at MASSQ4 13:04 4th & 3 at BALL 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
7. vs INSTQ4 3:43 4th & 9 at BALL 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
8. at MASSQ3 0:41 4th & 4 at MASS 47, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

86th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ball State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   COLG
2. L

   IOWA
3. L

   INST
4. L

   TOL
5. L

   ARMY
6. L

   WMU
7. W

   CMU
8. W

   AKR
9. L

   NIU
10. L

    MASS
11. W

    EMU
12. W

    BGSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Ball State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.73
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.06
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.20

Game by game

• COLGW 30-10 vs COLG96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +8
• IOWAL 13-17 at IOWA10% → 4%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −15, Possession & field position −1
• INSTL 20-27 vs INST92% → 17%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position +4
• TOLL 23-34 at TOL23% → 4%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −25, Possession & field position −1
• ARMYL 24-33 at ARMY35% → 5%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −30, Possession & field position −1
• WMUL 38-42 vs WMU56% → 7%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• CMUW 32-29 at CMU26% → 72%Before kickoff −24 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +32, Clock +2
• AKRW 35-21 vs AKR40% → 99%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts +2
• NIUL 21-35 vs NIU40% → 1%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −46, Clock −2
• MASSL 10-24 at MASS36% → 1%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
• EMUW 45-30 vs EMU84% → 98%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• BGSUW 41-24 at BGSU24% → 98%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +61, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Ball State's side.

Closest call

BALL 20-17 NIU (2023) - Ball State dropped to a 6.1% win probability before pulling it out.