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BALL

Ball State 24 at Army 33

ARMY
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:53 · Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, roughing passer (Hayden Pierce) to the Army 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+18.4Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor+5.8Score differential+7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:44: Jahwan Edwards run for 56 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +3.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:02: Aaron Kemper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +10.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:53: Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +10.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:35: Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 6 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +20.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:41: Angel Santiago run for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Schurr failed ) — ARMY win probability +15.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:05BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01BALL 4th & 1 at ARMY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 4 at BALL 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:09ARMY 4th & 4 at BALL 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:58BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:47ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16BALL 4th & 5 at ARMY 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07ARMY 4th & 2 at BALL 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.3
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at BALL 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:46BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 10, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:53BALL 4th & 3 at ARMY 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53ARMY 4th & 15 at ARMY 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:05ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:13ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:02ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53BALL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:35BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
64.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 3 yds Jahwan Edwards fumbled, forced by Chris Carnegie, recovered by Army Chris CarnegieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:1565% → 66%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.6%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the BalSt 29 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by Army A.J. SchurrSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
64.6%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+16
64.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 16 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
64.6%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+8
64.6%
Larry Dixon run for 8 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
65.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 10 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
65.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
65.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
65.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jahwan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
65.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 yds, downed at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
66.3%
Terry Baggett run for 7 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
66.4%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+34
66.2%
Larry Dixon run for 19 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Eric Patterson) to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
66.9%
Joe Walker run for 7 yds to the BalSt 44 Joe Walker fumbled, forced by Tracy Key, recovered by BalSt Michael AyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
63.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 56 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:2065% → 68%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+40
64.6%
Larry Dixon run for 40 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
65.0%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
65.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Terry BaggettSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+7
64.6%
Schurr, A.J. pass incomplete to Lawrence, C., PENALTY BALL roughing passer (NOEL, Keenan) 7 yards to the BALL8, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
65.0%
Tony Giovannelli run for 5 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
66.5%
Ozzie Mann run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+2
67.1%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+10
67.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 10 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-1
66.9%
Ozzie Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 43 Ozzie Mann fumbled, recovered by BalSt Ozzie MannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1769% → 69%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.6%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
68.4%
Tony Giovannelli run for 14 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
68.8%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
68.8%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+4
68.4%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
68.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, downed at the BalSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
68.2%
Ozzie Mann run for 1 yd to the BalSt 2Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
68.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 2Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+4
68.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
69.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds , Josh Jenkins returns for no gain to the BalSt 44 Josh Jenkins fumbled, recovered by Army N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:5270% → 71%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
70.2%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
70.1%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
69.7%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.3%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
70.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
69.6%
Raymond Maples run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
71.1%
Daniel Grochowski 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
71.6%
Horactio Banks run for 6 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
71.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
71.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
71.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by James KellySimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+7
71.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
72.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
72.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 54 yds, downed at the Army 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
73.7%
Larry Dixon run for 12 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.9%
Larry Dixon run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
74.4%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 33Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
73.7%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Tony GiovannelliSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+9
73.2%
Angel Santiago run for 9 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
73.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1126% → 29%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
74.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 27 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
72.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 34 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.8%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the Army 5Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.6%
Ozzie Mann run for no gain to the Army 5Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
71.4%
Scott Secor 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:0973% → 76%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
73.2%
Angel Santiago run for 27 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+37
75.0%
Angel Santiago run for 37 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
74.8%
Tony Giovannelli run for 2 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
74.8%
Terry Baggett run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+11
73.4%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 11 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
75.5%
Daniel Grochowski 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.5%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
76.6%
Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.2%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
77.1%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
77.4%
Angel Santiago run for 7 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
76.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
77.8%
Terry Baggett run for 23 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
78.1%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+25
78.0%
Larry Dixon run for 25 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
78.1%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.1%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
77.3%
Larry Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 2Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.2%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
79.8%
Ozzie Mann run for 2 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
80.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
80.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
81.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 51 yds, downed at the Army 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:3982% → 94%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
82.4%
Angel Santiago run for 7 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
82.6%
Tony Giovannelli run for 6 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
82.8%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+37
82.8%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Edgar Poe for 37 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:007% → 20%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
92.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.2%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
92.1%
Horactio Banks run for 13 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
92.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+6
92.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 6 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+20
92.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, roughing passer (Hayden Pierce) to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
90.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 13 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.9%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 23Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
84.6%
Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
83.8%
Angel Santiago sacked by Keenan Noel for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 20Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+51
83.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the ARMY 38 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:1116% → 40%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.4%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jahwan Edwards, broken up by Andrew KingSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+10
85.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 10 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
83.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
82.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 15 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
81.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 24 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-9
80.4%
Ozzie Mann sacked by John Voit for a loss of 9 yards to the Army 26Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+20
81.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 20 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.4%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the Army 6Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 6 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5472% → 92%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.1%
Raymond Maples run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
74.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
73.4%
Terry Baggett run for 39 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
77.0%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
77.0%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
75.4%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
77.0%
Matt Giachinta run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
77.0%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
92.4%
Angel Santiago run for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Schurr failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
91.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+7
89.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
89.8%
Ozzie Mann pass intercepted Jeremy Timpf return for 7 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0794% → 95%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
93.9%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
95.1%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
95.1%
Larry Dixon run for 9 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
95.1%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:35
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 6 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q4 3:41
Angel Santiago run for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Schurr failed )
+15.4
TD · Q3 3:02
Aaron Kemper run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com