Try the model
BALL

Ball State 10 at Massachusetts 24

MASS
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 12, 2014 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:06: Lorenzo Woodley 1 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick) — MASS win probability +6.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:11: Scott Secor 37 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:56: Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line — BALL win probability +7.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:31: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 16 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down — MASS win probability +6.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:40: Elgin Long 7 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick) — MASS win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 8:39MASS 4th & 19 at MASS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:38BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:57BALL 4th & 5 at MASS 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:55BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:43MASS 4th & 3 at BALL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:40MASS 4th & 17 at BALL 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:17BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:15MASS 4th & 2 at BALL 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 12, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:00BALL 4th & 1 at MASS 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−4.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:00BALL 4th & 1 at MASS 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−2.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:11BALL 4th & 6 at MASS 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:06MASS 4th & 1 at BALL 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−4.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:41BALL 4th & 4 at MASS 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:44MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−2.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:04BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−1.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:00MASS 4th & 7 at BALL 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−9.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:05MASS 4th & 13 at BALL 37, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:58MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:23BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:06MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:40MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 0:4964% → 64%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
63.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+61
63.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 61 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah 3 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:1836% → 37%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
64.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 9 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
64.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 3 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
64.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Sam Brunner for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
64.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
64.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
64.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
64.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
63.0%
Jordan Williams 33 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Scott Secor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2664% → 63%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
63.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for 8 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+16
63.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 16 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
64.2%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Osazuwamen Igbinosun for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-5
63.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Jalen Williams) to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 19
OWN 43
0
63.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
62.9%
Brian McDonald punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4737% → 37%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
62.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-1
62.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
63.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2263% → 64%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
63.1%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 16 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
63.3%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 7 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
63.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shadrach AbrokwahSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+22
63.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 22 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+12
64.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 12 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
64.3%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Michael Ayers for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+7
64.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+14
64.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Dedrick Cromartie return for 14 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FUMBLE
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:1737% → 40%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
62.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
61.9%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
61.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
61.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
62.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 10 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
60.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (Da'Sean Downey) to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Da'Sean DowneySimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
60.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Jovan Santos-KnoxSimilar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+16
60.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 16 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
59.7%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
59.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 4 yds to the UMass 11Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-1
60.0%
Jack Milas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 12 Jack Milas fumbled, recovered by UMassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1463% → 64%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
62.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
62.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+10
61.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 10 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
62.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 21 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
64.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Avery Bailey return for 7 yds to the UMass 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1440% → 39%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
60.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
59.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
60.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
61.0%
Scott Secor punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4563% → 72%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
63.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 16 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
64.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 11 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
65.2%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 2 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+50
65.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 50 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.2%
Lorenzo Woodley 1 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5730% → 28%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
69.8%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
70.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-6
70.8%
Jack Milas sacked by Trey Seals for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:0572% → 72%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
71.9%
Marken Michel run for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+7
71.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Matt Tuleja for 7 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+22
71.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
50
0
73.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shadrach Abrokwah for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
50
+8
73.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-1
73.7%
Marken Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+9
72.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
74.8%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Nick Miles for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
73.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shadrach AbrokwahSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
72.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
71.6%
Brian McDonald punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:0228% → 32%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
72.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+9
72.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
72.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 38 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
68.0%
KeVonn Mabon run for 2 yds to the UMass 33 KeVonn Mabon fumbled, forced by Jovan Santos-Knox, recovered by UMass Khary Bailey-SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13END OF HALF
14 plays · 60 yds · 1:2073% → 75%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
73.2%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 11 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
74.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 8 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
75.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 5 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
74.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 6 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
73.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+13
73.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 13 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
74.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
74.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
74.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 7 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+24
74.8%
Logan Laurent 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2326% → 23%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
73.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
74.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+2
76.6%
Jack Milas run for 2 yds to the BalSt 42 Jack Milas fumbled, forced by Jovan Santos-Knox, recovered by BalSt Jack MilasSimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
77.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5578% → 78%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+40
77.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 40 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
79.3%
Frohnapfel, Blake pass incomplete to Sharpe, Tajae (Conaway, Darius), PENALTY BALLST pass interference (Conaway, Darius) 16 yards to the BALLST12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UMASS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
79.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 5 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
79.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 2 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+1
78.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 4
0
78.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0722% → 20%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
78.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+2
78.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
79.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
80.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 1:3780% → 77%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
79.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Blake Frohnapfel) to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-1
78.8%
Lorenzo Woodley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 16
OWN 32
-5
78.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Michael Boland) to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 21
OWN 27
-5
78.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Michael Boland) to the UMass 22Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 26
OWN 22
+4
78.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 4 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 22
OWN 26
0
78.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
77.3%
Brian McDonald punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
14 plays · 36 yds · 5:0023% → 26%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
77.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Horactio Banks for 10 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
76.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
76.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
77.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+4
78.8%
Schmidt, Kyle punt 26 yards to the UMASS15, fair catch by Dudley-Giles, Trey, PENALTY UMASS running into kicker (Downey, Da'Sean) 4 yards to the UMASS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
78.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
76.1%
Jack Milas run for 6 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
75.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
77.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
79.1%
Jack Milas run for 2 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
76.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
76.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Jovan Santos-KnoxSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+1
78.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 1 yd to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
73.6%
Scott Secor 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5380% → 80%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
79.9%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
81.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
80.0%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1528% → 25%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.1%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
50
+3
73.2%
Jack Milas run for 3 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
73.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
75.5%
Scott Secor punt for 34 yds, downed at the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4782% → 82%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
82.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 16 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
83.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
83.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
82.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Brian McDonald punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3423% → 21%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
76.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
75.8%
Corey Lacanaria pass complete to Jack Milas for 7 yds to the BalSt 49 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drake Miller) to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 13
OWN 39
0
78.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jahwan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
79.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+10
80.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 10 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
79.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5684% → 86%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
84.4%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 3 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+44
84.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 29 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (David Moore) to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
86.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+18
86.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 18 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
87.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
87.5%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 1 yd to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+2
87.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
85.8%
Logan Laurent 34 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0619% → 17%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.1%
Jack Milas run for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
79.1%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
80.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
80.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
82.7%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Trey Seals return for 6 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:0088% → 97%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
88.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 11 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
88.8%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
89.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+8
89.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 8 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
90.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.5%
Elgin Long 7 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:446% → 6%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
93.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
93.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
93.9%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Randall Jette return for no gain to the UMass 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 26 yds · 3:5597% → 99%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+11
97.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
98.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+8
98.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 8 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
98.2%
Lorenzo Woodley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
98.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
98.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-10
98.7%
Long, Elgin rush for 12 yards to the BALLST15, PENALTY UMASS holding (Tuleja, Matt) 10 yards to the BALLST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+2
99.3%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.6%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:56
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
-7.9
TD · Q2 9:06
Lorenzo Woodley 1 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)
+6.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:31
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 16 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com