Try the model
INST

Indiana State 27 at Ball State 20

BALL
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadINST aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreINST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:28 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IndSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+36.6Home team on offense+0.8Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:31: Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 23 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +2.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:51: Mike Perish pass complete to A.J. Johnson for 25 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK) — INST win probability +4.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: Mike Perish pass complete to Isaac Beverstock for 2 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK) — INST win probability +10.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:57: Eric Heidorn 38 yd FG GOOD — INST win probability +6.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:50: Mike Perish pass complete to Kyani Harris for 28 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK) — INST win probability +34.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 13INST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 11:15INST 4th & 8 at BALL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46INST 4th & 8 at INST 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:00INST 4th & 3 at INST 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:28INST 4th & 2 at midfield, down 4
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at INST 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 2 at INST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:51BALL 4th & 10 at INST 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52INST 4th & 7 at INST 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:20BALL 4th & 6 at INST 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:14INST 4th & 6 at INST 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:05INST 4th & 4 at BALL 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:54BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:57INST 4th & 15 at BALL 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:14BALL 4th & 7 at INST 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−9.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:08INST 4th & 8 at INST 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:08BALL 4th & 7 at INST 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−12.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00INST 4th & 9 at INST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:40BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−6.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:30INST 4th & 3 at BALL 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−1.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−22.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:30BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−6.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:05INST 4th & 1 at INST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.7%−8.3
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:43BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−1.5
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:03INST 4th & 12 at INST 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:57BALL 4th & 2 at INST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−8.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2INST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:46BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:31BALL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:51INST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:04INST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:50INST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
INSTDrive 1FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:458% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 9 yds to the IndSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
91.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 14 yds Gary Owens fumbled, recovered by IndSt Gary Owens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
91.7%
Buck Logan run for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
91.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 8 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-5
91.7%
INDIANA ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
91.7%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
91.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Jamar Brown for 8 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Travis Reyes for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
91.7%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Travis ReyesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
91.7%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
90.5%
Eric Heidorn 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2091% → 91%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
90.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 6 yds to the IndSt 27Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
90.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the IndSt 27Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+15
90.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 15 yds to the IndSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
90.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 8 yds to the IndSt 4Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
90.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IndSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.3%
Buck Logan run for 2 yds to the IndSt 27Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.3%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
90.4%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
90.4%
Osborn Umeh punt for 47 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
90.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 16
OWN 27
0
89.9%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Jameer ThurmanSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
89.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IndSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.9%
LeMonte Booker run for 3 yds to the IndSt 27Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
89.8%
LeMonte Booker run for 3 yds to the IndSt 30Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
89.9%
INDIANA ST Penalty, false start (Nick Dachota) to the IndSt 25Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+6
90.0%
Mike Perish pass complete to Travis Reyes for 6 yds to the IndSt 31Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
90.0%
Osborn Umeh punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
89.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
89.1%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
89.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IndSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0911% → 12%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
88.9%
LeMonte Booker run for a loss of 3 yards to the IndSt 27 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Aaron Taylor) to the IndSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
88.6%
LeMonte Booker run for 6 yds to the IndSt 48Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
88.5%
Mike Perish pass complete to LeMonte Booker for 1 yd to the IndSt 49Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
88.5%
Buck Logan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 2
50
0
88.4%
Osborn Umeh punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:5189% → 91%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
88.5%
Horactio Banks run for 6 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+11
88.7%
Horactio Banks run for 11 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
88.8%
Horactio Banks run for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
88.6%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
88.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 10 yds to the IndSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the IndSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
88.6%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the IndSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
88.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 6 yds to the IndSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
88.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the IndSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
88.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the IndSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
88.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IndSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
88.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Andrew Spears for no gain to the IndSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+5
88.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the IndSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
91.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 23 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3410% → 15%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
90.0%
Mike Perish pass complete to Kyani Harris for 14 yds to the IndSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
89.6%
Mike Perish pass complete to Buck Logan for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
89.5%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 16 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
84.6%
Mike Perish pass complete to A.J. Johnson for 25 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 13 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
86.6%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+14
86.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 14 yds to the IndSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
87.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 9 yds to the IndSt 37Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+2
87.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the IndSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the IndSt 35Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
87.0%
Ozzie Mann run for no gain to the IndSt 35Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
86.1%
BALL ST Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Scott Secor punt for 33 yds, downed at the IndSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
85.6%
Buck Logan run for 2 yds to the IndSt 4Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
85.6%
Buck Logan run for 1 yd to the IndSt 5Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
86.1%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary Owens, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+6
86.4%
Osborn Umeh punt for 41 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 6 yds to the IndSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
86.0%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the IndSt 36Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
86.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
85.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
85.0%
Scott Secor punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IndSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1615% → 15%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
85.0%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
85.1%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Travis ReyesSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+4
85.5%
Mike Perish pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 4 yds to the IndSt 8Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+1
85.5%
Osborn Umeh punt for 45 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 49 Aaron Hepp fumbled, recovered by IndSt Connor UnderwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:0118% → 29%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.1%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to LeMonte BookerSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
82.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
82.1%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+14
83.0%
Buck Logan run for 14 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
80.6%
Mike Perish pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 14 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
81.6%
Perish, Mike pass incomplete to Owens, Gary (COOPER, Quintin), PENALTY BALL pass interference (COOPER, Quintin) 13 yards to the BALL2, 1ST DOWN INS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Isaac Beverstock for 2 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
74.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-3
75.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+4
74.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 4 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
73.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 17FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0430% → 35%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.9%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Travis ReyesSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
69.9%
Buck Logan run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+25
70.4%
Mike Perish pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 25 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
68.9%
Buck Logan run for no gain to the BalSt 15Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
68.9%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-5
70.3%
INDIANA ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
71.1%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+38
65.0%
Eric Heidorn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:4367% → 70%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Darian Green for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
68.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
67.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 37 yds to the IndSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
71.2%
Ozzie Mann run for a loss of 4 yards to the IndSt 30Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+7
69.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the IndSt 23Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
69.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
70.3%
Scott Secor 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
67.0%
Mike Perish pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 6 yds to the IndSt 21 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, roughing passer (Michael Ayers) to the IndSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.7%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to LeMonte BookerSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
66.3%
Buck Logan run for 2 yds to the IndSt 38Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
65.9%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Sampson Levingston, broken up by Brian JonesSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
68.3%
Osborn Umeh punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
12 plays · 83 yds · 3:5067% → 73%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
67.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 9 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+12
67.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 12 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
68.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
70.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+38
68.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 38 yds to the IndSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
72.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
72.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the IndSt 21Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+13
71.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 13 yds to the IndSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
72.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the IndSt 7Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
73.2%
Scott Secor 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0231% → 31%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
69.2%
Buck Logan run for 3 yds to the IndSt 11Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-10
69.1%
Mike Perish sacked by Darnell Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the IndSt 1Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 17
OWN 1
+23
70.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 23 yds to the IndSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
68.5%
Mike Perish run for a loss of 7 yards to the IndSt 17Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+7
69.1%
LeMonte Booker run for 7 yds to the IndSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+1
67.6%
LeMonte Booker run for 1 yd to the IndSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Osborn Umeh punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:3970% → 67%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
69.8%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
70.9%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
69.5%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-5
68.4%
Ozzie Mann sacked by Connor Underwood for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mark Sewall at the IndSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:2836% → 40%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
63.6%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 7 yds to the IndSt 43Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
61.1%
Mike Perish pass complete to Jamar Brown for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
50
+28
60.2%
Mike Perish pass complete to Gary Owens for 28 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
58.5%
Booker, LeMonte rush for 3 yards to the BALL19 (INGLE, Ben;MILES, Nick), PENALTY INS holding (Borens, Zach) 10 yards to the BALL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+2
59.6%
Buck Logan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+15
60.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Kyani Harris for 15 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
60.4%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
59.6%
Eric Heidorn 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
66.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 11 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
67.4%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
67.4%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-2
65.7%
Ozzie Mann sacked by Conlan Cassidy and Connor Underwood for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
64.2%
Scott Secor punt for 32 yds, downed at the IndSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 25TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1543% → 86%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
56.9%
Buck Logan run for 6 yds to the IndSt 43Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-10
53.9%
Mike Perish sacked by Nick Miles for a loss of 10 yards to the IndSt 33Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-5
60.7%
INDIANA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the IndSt 28Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+18
60.7%
Mike Perish pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 18 yds to the IndSt 46Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+9
55.1%
Buck Logan run for 9 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
50.9%
Mike Perish pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 17 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.8%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Gary OwensSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
14.5%
Mike Perish pass complete to Kyani Harris for 28 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
25.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
27.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.0%
Ozzie Mann run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
26.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Dejuan LangSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
25.4%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
23.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mark Sewall at the IndSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1485% → 84%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
14.6%
Buck Logan run for a loss of 3 yards to the IndSt 12Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
13.4%
Mike Perish pass incomplete to Isaac BeverstockSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+1
14.3%
Buck Logan run for 1 yd to the IndSt 13Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
15.6%
Osborn Umeh punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
13 plays · 49 yds · 1:3319% → 17%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
18.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the IndSt 44Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+11
21.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the IndSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
24.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
24.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the IndSt 25Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
24.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+3
22.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the IndSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
27.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 9 yds to the IndSt 13Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
21.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
19.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the IndSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
17.2%
Ozzie Mann run for 6 yds to the IndSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:50
Mike Perish pass complete to Kyani Harris for 28 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK)
-34.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.2
TD · Q2 0:04
Mike Perish pass complete to Isaac Beverstock for 2 yds for a TD, (Eric Heidorn KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com