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BALL

Ball State 13 at Iowa 17

IOWA
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:23 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+35.2Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:37: Scott Secor 42 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +6.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 2:52: Jake Rudock pass complete to Derrick Willies for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK) — IOWA win probability +35.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 1:00: Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK) — IOWA win probability +59.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44: Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 33 — BALL win probability +13.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:25: Timeout BALL ST, clock 00:25 — IOWA win probability +18.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:41IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35BALL 4th & 12 at IOWA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13IOWA 4th & 9 at BALL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47IOWA 4th & 9 at BALL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23IOWA 4th & 5 at BALL 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:58BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:14IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:34BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07IOWA 4th & 3 at BALL 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.5
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:37BALL 4th & 17 at IOWA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−8.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:43BALL 4th & 8 at IOWA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:37IOWA 4th & 4 at BALL 11, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−11.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:13BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:47IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:50BALL 4th & 3 at IOWA 43, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−4.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:17IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:50BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:23BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−5.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:08BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:52IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:00IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0490% → 90%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
90.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 8 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-2
90.2%
Mark Weisman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
90.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
90.0%
Dillon Kidd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:5510% → 11%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
89.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+6
89.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
89.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 1
50
+5
89.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 5 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
89.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
89.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
88.9%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
88.9%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Horactio BanksSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+3
88.9%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
88.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+53
88.9%
Scott Secor 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:1789% → 88%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
88.9%
Jonathan Parker run for 3 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
88.9%
Jonathan Parker run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
88.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Willies for 7 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
88.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 13 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.5%
Damon Bullock run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-1
88.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
87.7%
Dillon Kidd punt for 32 yds, downed at the BalSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4412% → 13%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
87.7%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-1
87.5%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+6
87.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
87.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2888% → 86%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
87.6%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brian Jones) to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
87.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+8
87.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
87.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
87.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake DuzeySimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-1
87.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
86.4%
Marshall Koehn 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3114% → 15%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
85.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 13 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
85.1%
Ozzie Mann run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
84.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 9 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
84.4%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (KeVonn Mabon) to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-1
84.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+37
85.1%
Scott Secor punt for 37 yds , Desmond King returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5885% → 81%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
85.2%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
85.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 13 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-35
81.0%
Blake Dueitt 35 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Secor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:3881% → 83%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+50
80.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 50 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
81.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
81.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 5 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
80.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Henry Krieger CobleSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
82.5%
Marshall Koehn 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1918% → 19%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.4%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Scott Secor punt for 44 yds, downed at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3581% → 78%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 3 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
80.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Macon Plewa for 4 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
80.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 5 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.4%
Mark Weisman run for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
79.3%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+4
78.6%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
78.1%
Dillon Kidd punt for 48 yds, downed at the BalSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3422% → 22%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
78.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+5
78.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+15
78.0%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 15 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jahwan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
76.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
77.1%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
77.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 48 yds, downed at the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 4:2176% → 72%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
76.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 7 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
77.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
76.2%
Jake Rudock sacked by Eric Patterson for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+6
75.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 6 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+19
73.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 19 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
76.7%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Walsh) to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+11
74.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 11 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
76.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+19
75.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 19 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
76.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Kevonte Martin-ManleySimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+7
75.1%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
72.3%
Marshall Koehn 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
70.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FUMBLE
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:1929% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
70.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Darian Green for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
70.6%
IOWA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
68.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Dylan Curry for 7 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
67.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
67.6%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (John Lowdermilk) to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
66.6%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+5
67.5%
Horactio Banks run for 5 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+26
66.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 26 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-11
64.0%
Ozzie Mann sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 29 BALL ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ozzie Mann) to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 21
OPP 29
+4
64.9%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
66.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
60.2%
Scott Secor 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4045% → 47%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
55.2%
Horactio Banks run for 11 yds to the Iowa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
54.5%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+4
54.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
53.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
52.7%
Scott Secor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:5451% → 44%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
51.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
51.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+8
50.8%
Mark Weisman run for 8 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
51.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+17
49.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 17 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
50.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
49.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 12 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
48.8%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
47.9%
Mark Weisman run for 4 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
46.9%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
44.4%
Mick Ellis 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1958% → 62%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.1%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
41.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
42.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 18 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.1%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
37.2%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Richard) to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
39.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Horactio Banks for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+10
39.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 10 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
37.8%
Scott Secor punt for 33 yds, downed at the Iowa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1837% → 34%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
36.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 6 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+10
36.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 10 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damon BullockSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
37.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 5 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
36.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
34.4%
Dillon Kidd punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5265% → 79%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
35.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
35.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
31.4%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 15 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
27.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 8 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
26.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
50
0
25.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
50
+1
24.0%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
23.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Horactio Banks for 6 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
20.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 yds, downed at the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:2522% → 17%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
21.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+8
20.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 8 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+6
19.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 6 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
20.6%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
19.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damon BullockSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+12
18.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 12 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
19.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
19.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 12 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
20.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damond PowellSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
19.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
18.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
16.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1883% → 86%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
16.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
14.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
14.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
14.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:5113% → 46%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
13.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damond PowellSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
12.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 9 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
13.3%
Damon Bullock run for 5 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
13.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
50
+16
13.3%
Jake Rudock run for 16 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
15.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
15.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Kevonte Martin-ManleySimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
12.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 8 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
10.8%
Jake Rudock run for 10 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
46.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Derrick Willies for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2376% → 76%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
20.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.3%
Scott Secor punt for 46 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 12 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:0033% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
32.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 16 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
36.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+10
38.5%
Damon Bullock run for 10 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
38.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 6 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+6
35.4%
Jake Rudock run for 6 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1919% → 23%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
77.2%
Ozzie Mann sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 29 Ozzie Mann fumbled, recovered by Iowa Carl Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:00
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK)
+59.5
TD · Q4 2:52
Jake Rudock pass complete to Derrick Willies for 12 yds for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK)
+35.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:25
Timeout BALL ST, clock 00:25
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com