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BALL

Ball State 32 at Central Michigan 29

CMU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-5CMU 58.1%Scott Secor 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 19 - HOME 14 · Q2 2:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:55 · Scott Secor 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense−5.2Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:14: Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +9.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:01: Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 27 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 1:02: Scott Secor 20 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +10.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:22: Titus Davis 8 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Cooper Rush Pass to Jesse Kroll for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +44.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:17: Scott Secor 55 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +32.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 6:04CMU 4th & 7 at BALL 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:55BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 21, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%−0.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:55BALL 4th & 11 at CMU 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−7.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:14CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 38, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:56BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 45, up 5
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:14CMU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:38BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 40, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:18BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−12.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:02BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 3, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−2.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−17.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:37BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:22CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−3.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−18.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:41BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 5, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−7.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:17BALL 4th & 9 at CMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−5.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−11.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:04CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:11BALL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:03CMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14BALL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:01CMU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:22CMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:1726% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
73.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
73.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
73.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 15 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
73.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 18 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
73.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+15
73.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Chris Shillings for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brandon Greer) to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
73.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Blake SerpaSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
73.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+8
73.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Sam Brunner for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Leterrius Walton) to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
73.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:3173% → 74%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
72.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
50
+14
73.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 14 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
73.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 4 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+27
73.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 27 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5327% → 30%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.1%
MILAS, Jack pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jord., PENALTY CMU pass interference (NALOR, Dennis) 15 yards to the BSU40, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
72.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
73.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
50
+8
72.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 8 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
72.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
72.6%
Jack Milas run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
69.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 40 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
70.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 14 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
71.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
71.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Dedrick CromartieSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
71.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Keenan NoelSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
70.5%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:4131% → 36%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
69.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
69.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
69.3%
MILAS, Jack pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jord., QB hurry by LOPEZ, Cody, PENALTY CMU holding (NALOR, Dennis) 10 yards to the BSU33, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
68.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
68.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 4 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+25
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 25 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
68.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
68.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Dennis NalorSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
68.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+39
64.0%
Scott Secor 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
64.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
64.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
65.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
64.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
65.1%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
65.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42 Thomas Rawls fumbled, forced by Martez Hester, recovered by BalSt Sean WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
60.9%
Jack Milas sacked by Blake Serpa for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 35 Jack Milas fumbled, recovered by CMich Blake Serpa , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:1563% → 69%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.3%
Martez Walker run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
63.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+7
62.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
60.4%
RAWLS, Thomas rush for 14 yards to the BSU11 (CROMARTIE, D.), PENALTY CMU holding 0 yards to the BSU25, NO PLAY, PENALTY BSU offside defense 0 yards to the BSU25, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
63.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 14 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
63.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
63.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.4%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.3%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:0637% → 42%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
63.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
50
+10
62.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
62.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+9
63.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
62.0%
Jack Milas run for 8 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
61.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
61.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
62.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
63.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+37
58.1%
Scott Secor 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mike KinvilleSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
57.8%
Cooper Rush sacked by Darnell Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 1 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by BalSt Michael Ayers , return for 0 yards , return for 12 yds to the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3847% → 57%
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
47.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 5 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
47.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
46.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus DavisSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
46.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 7 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
46.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Eric PattersonSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, downed at the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
43.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5345% → 59%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
44.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+23
44.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 23 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
46.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
47.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
45.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
58.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 27 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
51.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
50.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
50.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
49.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
51.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.6%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
53.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 3
50
0
55.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Thomas RawlsSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 3
50
0
53.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
49.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+8
49.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
49.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 11 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
48.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
46.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
47.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
49.8%
Scott Secor punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0049% → 52%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
49.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 12 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
49.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
52.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 5 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
52.3%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Eric Patterson return for 43 yds to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1660% → 70%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
40.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+8
40.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
41.3%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+8
44.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
39.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 10 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Tony Annese) to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
39.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.3%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
30.4%
Scott Secor 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:5634% → 38%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
34.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+8
36.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 8 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
37.1%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to DAVIS, Titus, PENALTY BSU pass interference (PATTERSON, Eric) 15 yards to the BSU32, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
38.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+10
34.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 10 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-7
36.2%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, sideline interference (NA) to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
38.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 15 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
38.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 8 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
38.4%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the BalSt 12 Thomas Rawls fumbled, forced by Eric Patterson, recovered by BalSt Sean WigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
24.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
24.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+7
25.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 7 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
24.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-8
24.5%
Jack Milas sacked by Tim Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+13
27.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 54 yds , Amari Coleman returns for 13 yds to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:0025% → 28%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
25.3%
RAWLS, Thomas rush for no gain to the CMU37 (AYERS, Michael), PENALTY BSU offside defense 5 yards to the CMU42, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 5
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Deon ButlerSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
27.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
27.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+31
27.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 31 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
31.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Eric PattersonSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
31.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+6
29.4%
Cooper Rush run for 6 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
27.5%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
11.9%
BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nick Miles) to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 15
OWN 7
-3
12.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+1
12.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 17
OWN 5
0
13.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Dennis NalorSimilar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 17
OWN 5
0
13.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:4218% → 66%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
17.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+37
19.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 37 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
21.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.7%
Titus Davis 8 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Cooper Rush Pass to Jesse Kroll for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:5951% → 87%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
49.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 9 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+1
45.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
46.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 9 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
44.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+9
44.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
44.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Dennis NalorSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
45.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+55
13.0%
Scott Secor 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0023% → 28%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
23.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 17 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.9%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Eric Patterson return for no gain to the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:22
Titus Davis 8 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Cooper Rush Pass to Jesse Kroll for Two-Point Conversion)
+44
FG · Q4 0:17
Scott Secor 55 yd FG GOOD
-32.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-27.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com