Washington

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1872nd
  Defense+0.0280th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.8%80th
  Defense41.8%60th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1526th
  Defense+1.0892nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1478th
  Defense+0.0360th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2464th
  Defense+0.0288th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.2%85th
  Defense47.2%52nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.5%64th
  Defense29.9%80th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0364th
  Defense2.6181st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.7%60th
  Defense19.2%48th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.2%83rd
  Defense17.5%18th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   EWU
2. L
   CAL
3. W
   HAW
4. W
   BYU
5. W
   USC
6. L
   STAN
7. W
   ARIZ
8. L
   ORE
9. L
   UTAH
10. W
    ORST
11. L
    COLO
12. W
    WSU
13. W
    BOIS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington.

Players, 2019

1. Jacob EasonQB381 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 71st of 228 QBs
   1.10WAR0.42 to 1.80
2. Salvon AhmedRB158 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 74th of 349 RBs
   0.46WAR0.33 to 0.60
3. Richard NewtonRB77 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 157th of 349 RBs
   0.26WAR0.22 to 0.32
4. Peyton HenryPK17 plays · +0.453 pts/play · 35th of 114 kickers
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.19
5. Hunter BryantTE66 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 6th of 207 TEs
   0.14WAR0.01 to 0.25
6. Aaron FullerWR76 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 155th of 439 WRs
   0.13WAR0.02 to 0.23
7. Sean McGrewRB40 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 241st of 349 RBs
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.15
8. Terrell BynumWR38 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 243rd of 439 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  80180119th of 130Roster talent: 801, 19th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  23723719th of 130Recruiting: 237, 19th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  53%53%86th of 130Returning production: 53%, 86th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +18.3+18.316th of 130SP+ rating: +18.3, 16th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WSUQ4 6:35 4th & 1 at WSU 5, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
2. at ORSTQ3 4:39 4th & 4 at ORST 45, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. vs CALQ3 5:50 4th & 4 at CAL 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at COLOQ4 15:00 4th & 8 at COLO 24, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at ARIZQ2 12:59 4th & 11 at ARIZ 32, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at STANQ2 5:59 4th & 4 at STAN 8, down 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs UTAHQ2 8:52 4th & 2 at WASH 37, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at ARIZQ4 6:59 4th & 1 at ARIZ 11, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

106th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   EWU
2. L

   CAL
3. W

   HAW
4. W

   BYU
5. W

   USC
6. L

   STAN
7. W

   ARIZ
8. L

   ORE
9. L

   UTAH
10. W

    ORST
11. L

    COLO
12. W

    WSU
13. W

    BOIS

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Washington's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.15
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.97

Game by game

• EWUW 47-14 vs EWU95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• CALL 19-20 vs CAL83% → 20%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −34, Clock −3
• HAWW 52-20 vs HAW92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +10
• BYUW 45-19 at BYU70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +36, Clock +1
• USCW 28-14 vs USC75% → 98%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28
• STANL 13-23 at STAN79% → 3%Before kickoff +29 · On the field −76: Scoreboard −44, Possession & field position −2
• ARIZW 51-27 at ARIZ66% → 99%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +41, Clock +2
• OREL 31-35 vs ORE36% → 5%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −44, Clock −3
• UTAHL 28-33 vs UTAH38% → 6%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −43, Clock −3
• ORSTW 19-7 at ORST76% → 97%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• COLOL 14-20 at COLO81% → 4%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −77: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −2
• WSUW 31-13 vs WSU72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30, Possession & field position −1
• BOISW 38-7 vs BOIS64% → 100%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Washington's side.

Closest call

WASH 37-34 ORE (2022) - Washington dropped to a 6.2% win probability before pulling it out.