2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:01 · Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:46: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 9 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +12.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 8:15: Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +15.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:06: Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaylon Johnson return for 39 yds for a TD — UTAH win probability +21.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:23: Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +28.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:01: Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +18.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:32UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q1 9:17WASH 4th & 3 at UTAH 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.6%52% to convertField goal45.5%−0.156% to makePunt45.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:06UTAH 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snapGo for it48.4%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 14:56UTAH 4th & 8 at WASH 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.3%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call47.7%85% to makePunt44.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 10:12UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it38.8%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.5%average punt
- Q2 8:52WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 37, up 11Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:54UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.6%70% to convertField goal35.6%−2.030% to makePunt35.9%−1.7average punt
- Q2 1:09WASH 4th & 1 at UTAH 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.0%70% to convertField goal55.2%−1.925% to makePunt55.6%−1.4average punt
- Q3 9:19UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 15, down 1Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it41.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:56WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 29, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snapGo for it74.2%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%average punt
- Q3 1:41WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 30, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it56.7%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q4 10:14WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 26, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it29.4%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%average punt
- Q4 3:43WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 45, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:19WASH 4th & 10 at UTAH 31, down 12Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%−0.429% to convertField goal6.2%54% to makePunt4.7%−1.5average punt
- Q4 1:01WASH 4th & 3 at UTAH 3, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.0%44% to convertField goal5.9%−1.193% to makePunt3.3%−3.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:36WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.1%97% to makeGo for two48.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:19WASH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:46UTAH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:15WASH Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:23UTAH Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 4:52UTAH Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 1:01WASH Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%97% to makeGo for two10.8%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1762% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD14 plays · 70 yds · 5:4839% → 44%
Q1 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
38.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 6 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
39.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for a loss of 7 yards to the Wash 42Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+21
39.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Marquis Spiker for 21 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+5
40.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 5 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
40.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 9 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
41.1%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
44.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Jordan Chin for 11 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4456% → 53%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
43.8%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Tuli Letuligasenoa for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 17Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+31
44.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
50
-1
43.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 49Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-6
44.8%
Jason Shelley sacked by Ryan Bowman for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1747% → 47%
UTAHDrive 5FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2355% → 56%
Q1 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-1
45.4%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Benning Potoa'e for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2745% → 56%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
46.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 14 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
47.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 9 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
55.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 34 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2546% → 43%
WASHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1657% → 57%
Q2 8:52
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
57.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demari Simpkins at the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5743% → 52%
WASHDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 1:2053% → 55%
UTAHDrive 11END OF HALF12 plays · 41 yds · 0:5951% → 53%
Q2 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+19
48.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 19 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+11
49.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
50.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 5 yds to the Wash 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12INT10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2452% → 58%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 23Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
51.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 14 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
54.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 12 yds Terrell Bynum fumbled, recovered by WashSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
55.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 14 yds to the Utah 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.7%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted Julian Blackmon return for no gain to the Utah 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5147% → 44%
WASHDrive 14TD4 plays · 52 yds · 0:5657% → 73%
UTAHDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0432% → 37%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
68.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 41 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
63.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 13 yds to the Wash 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
63.1%
Jordan Wilmore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 25 Jordan Wilmore fumbled, recovered by WashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0771% → 72%
UTAHDrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 31 yds · 2:2229% → 26%
WASHDrive 18INT TD3 plays · -12 yds · 0:0778% → 56%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
78.0%
Jacob Eason sacked by John Penisini for a loss of 12 yards to the Wash 30 WASHINGTON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jacob Eason) to the Wash 30Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 22
OWN 30
+39
56.2%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaylon Johnson return for 39 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 22
OWN 30
+39
56.2%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaylon Johnson return for 39 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1857% → 55%
UTAHDrive 20TD10 plays · 82 yds · 5:0444% → 76%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
55.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 4 yds to the Utah 22Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+5
57.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 5 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+41
58.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 41 yds to the Wash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
51.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Wash 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5034% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22TD11 plays · 84 yds · 5:0272% → 93%
Q4 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
25.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Solomon Enis for 14 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+36
19.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 28 yds to the Wash 15 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (8 Yards) to the Wash 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23TD22 plays · 75 yds · 3:478% → 23%
Q4 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 12 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
7.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 8 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+8
6.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 8 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
6.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 16 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+12
6.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 12 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+11
6.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 11 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
6.8%
Jacob Eason sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 17Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+14
4.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 14 yds to the Utah 3Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24Uncategorized5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4694% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
-28.2
TD · Q3 3:06
Jacob Eason pass intercepted for a TD Jaylon Johnson return for 39 yds for a TD
-21.8
TD · Q4 1:01
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+18.4