2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:47 · Joel Whitford punt for 52 yds, downed at the EWash 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:07: Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 50 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:17: Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 7 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +0.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:57: Eric Barriere pass complete to Andrew Boston for 64 yds for a TD, (Andre Slyter KICK) — EWU win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:35: Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 18 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 5EWU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 14:05EWU 4th & 14 at WASH 21, tiedClose callPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.117% to convertField goal6.6%74% to makePuntTheir call6.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:22WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 23, tiedClose callWent for it · 92.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.4%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.4%average punt
- Q1 8:15EWU 4th & 2 at WASH 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:29EWU 4th & 7 at WASH 28, down 14Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%−<0.137% to convertField goal6.8%60% to makePuntTheir call6.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 0:42EWU 4th & 18 at WASH 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.313% to convertField goal4.7%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q2 12:47WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q2 4:57EWU 4th & 18 at WASH 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.611% to convertField goalTheir call3.9%79% to makePunt2.4%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:30WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 29, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q3 10:48EWU 4th & 6 at WASH 20, down 28Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.138% to convertField goal0.8%75% to makePuntTheir call0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:35WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 27, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.6%average punt
- Q3 7:11EWU 4th & 13 at WASH 24, down 28Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.120% to convertField goal0.5%68% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:00EWU 4th & 1 at WASH 7, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal0.1%−0.291% to makePunt-0.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 5:37EWU 4th & 9 at WASH 26, down 31Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.1%64% to makePuntTheir call-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:34WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 39, up 31Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6EWU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:22WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:07WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:17WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:57EWU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:35WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:13WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:12EWU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEWUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 0:535% → 5%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
94.9%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, False Start (Chris Schlichting) to the EWash 20Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+6
94.9%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dre' SonteDorton for 6 yds to the EWash 26Similar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-5
94.9%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, False Start (Chris Schlichting) to the EWash 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3895% → 94%
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+11
94.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 11 yds to the EWash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.3%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caleb Davis) to the EWash 26Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
94.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 5 yds to the EWash 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 15 yds · 2:006% → 6%
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-1
94.1%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Jayce Gilder for 9 yds to the EWash 45 EASTERN WASH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jayson Williams) to the EWash 35Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
94.0%
Barriere, Eric pass incomplete, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Gordon, Kyler) 10 yards to the EASTWASH45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTWASH.Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-4
93.9%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Antoine Custer Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the EWash 42Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-3
93.9%
Eric Barriere sacked by Josiah Bronson for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
50
+50
94.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 50 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:186% → 6%
WASHDrive 6TD9 plays · 50 yds · 2:0695% → 95%
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
94.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 11 yds to the EWash 21 for a 1ST down EASTERN WASH Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+13
94.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 13 yds to the EWash 14Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
94.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 4 yds to the EWash 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
94.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for 4 yds to the EWash 6Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+7
95.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 7 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 3:285% → 4%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.5%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Jayce Gilder for 5 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
95.5%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Andrew Boston for 4 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
95.7%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Jayce Gilder for 7 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-15
95.7%
Eric Barriere sacked by Benning Potoa'e for a loss of 15 yards to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
96.0%
Trevor Bowens punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4596% → 96%
EWUDrive 9MISSED FG19 plays · 79 yds · 7:324% → 3%
Q2 11:35
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+8
96.1%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Johnny Edwards IV for 8 yds to the EWash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
96.0%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dennis Merritt for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 16Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
96.1%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Andrew Boston for 7 yds to the EWash 23Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
96.1%
Barriere, Eric pass incomplete to Edwards IV, Johnny, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Gordon, Kyler) 10 yards to the EASTWASH42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTWASH.Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+10
96.4%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dennis Merritt for 10 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
96.1%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dylan Ingram for 8 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
96.0%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Andrew Boston for 17 yds to the Wash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+10
96.2%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dennis Merritt for 2 yds to the Wash 16 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Ariel Ngata) to the Wash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
96.3%
Eric Barriere sacked by Ryan Bowman for a loss of 10 yards to the Wash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5997% → 99%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
97.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 14 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
97.5%
Eason, Jacob pass complete to Fuller, Aaron for 9 yards to the WASHINGTON48, PENALTY WASHINGTON ineligible downfield on pass (Adams, Trey) 5 yards to the WASHINGTON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+30
97.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 30 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
99.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 11TD5 plays · 84 yds · 0:461% → 3%
WASHDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2298% → 98%
EWUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:2098% → 100%
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+21
97.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 21 yds to the EWash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+14
97.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 14 yds to the EWash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
99.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 18 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q3 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+6
99.2%
Trevor Bowens punt for 44 yds , Chico McClatcher returns for 6 yds to the Wash 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 31 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
99.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 27 yds to the EWash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:160% → 1%
Q3 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-4
99.6%
Eric Barriere sacked by Benning Potoa'e for a loss of 4 yards to the EWash 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD10 plays · 62 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
99.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 19 yds to the EWash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for 1 yd to the EWash 39Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
99.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 15 yds to the EWash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 3 yds to the EWash 21Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+15
99.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 15 yds to the EWash 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 6
OWN 9
+6
99.7%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Fuller, Aaron, PENALTY EASTWASH offside (Johnson, Mitchell) 6 yards to the EASTWASH3, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 19TD17 plays · 75 yds · 4:500% → 0%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+28
99.7%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Johnny Edwards IV for 28 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Jayson Williams for 3 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Dennis Merritt for 15 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20FG16 plays · 70 yds · 7:27100% → 100%
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 1 yd to the Wash 30Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 11 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+20
99.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 20 yds to the EWash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
99.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 7 yds to the EWash 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Eric Barriere pass complete to Jayce Gilder for 1 yd to the EWash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
EWUDrive 23SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 39 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
Eric Barriere pass complete to Andrew Boston for 64 yds for a TD, (Andre Slyter KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 1:51
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q3 11:35
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 18 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+1.7