2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tristan Vizcaino 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:37: Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +20.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:42: Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 76 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +20.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:52: Tyler Huntley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +28.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:58: Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +41.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Tristan Vizcaino 38 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +29.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:18WASH 4th & 10 at UTAH 40, tiedClose callPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.6%30% to convertField goal86.6%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call86.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:53UTAH 4th & 14 at UTAH 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q1 4:50UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 47, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:47UTAH 4th & 7 at WASH 10, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%88% to makePunt17.8%−2.1average punt
- Q2 5:18WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snapGo for it78.7%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.5%average punt
- Q2 4:24UTAH 4th & 19 at UTAH 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it16.8%−2.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q2 1:58WASH 4th & 4 at UTAH 16, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snapGo for it79.2%46% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%−0.281% to makePunt75.5%−3.7average punt
- Q3 11:33UTAH 4th & 6 at WASH 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.2%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call23.4%91% to makePunt16.3%−7.1average punt
- Q3 6:42WASH 4th & 4 at UTAH 13, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snapGo for it72.5%46% to convertField goalTheir call72.2%−0.385% to makePunt63.4%−9.1average punt
- Q3 2:50UTAH 4th & 1 at WASH 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.3%71% to convertField goal31.0%−5.249% to makePunt29.3%−7.0average punt
- Q4 14:12UTAH 4th & 17 at UTAH 27, tiedNumbers favored punt by 5.9 ptsWent for it · 33.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.9%−5.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.8%average punt
- Q4 4:31WASH 4th & 8 at UTAH 15, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 27.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%−2.431% to convertField goal24.9%83% to makePunt13.1%−11.7average punt
- Q4 2:03UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snapGo for it84.8%−1.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q4 1:33WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.5%−1.7average punt
- Q4 0:29UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it44.3%−1.771% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:11WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:04UTAH Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.8%97% to makeGo for two16.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:45WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:37UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two51.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:42WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.3%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 10:52UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.2%97% to makeGo for two62.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:58WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two44.5%−5.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2689% → 88%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
88.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 32 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-5
88.5%
Jake Browning sacked by Bradlee Anae for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 40 Jake Browning fumbled, forced by Bradlee Anae, recovered by WashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1612% → 12%
Q1 10:53
4TH & 14
OWN 1
+18
88.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 49 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 18 yds to the Utah 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD7 plays · 32 yds · 3:3688% → 88%
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
87.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 4 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+4
87.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 4 yds to the Utah 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5512% → 16%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
87.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Harrison Handley for 12 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
86.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 5 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+40
84.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FG13 plays · 42 yds · 5:0816% → 19%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
84.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 15 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
83.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 10 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
82.5%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Carrington II, Darren, PENALTY WASHINGTON offside (Murphy, Byron) 5 yards to the WASHINGTON19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
81.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 14Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
81.5%
McCormick Jr., Troy rush for 10 yards to the WASHINGTON4, PENALTY UTAH holding (Barton, Jackson) off-setting, PENALTY WASHINGTON targeting (McIntosh, JoJo) off-setting, NO PLAY. McIntosh ejected.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5481% → 84%
UTAHDrive 7INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3617% → 17%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-4
81.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+1
82.7%
Tyler Huntley pass intercepted Taylor Rapp return for 1 yd to the Wash 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:4784% → 81%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
83.5%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wash 35Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+17
82.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 17 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-9
83.0%
Jake Browning sacked by Bradlee Anae and Filipo Mokofisi for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4919% → 18%
WASHDrive 10FG7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1983% → 85%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
50
+18
82.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Will Dissly for 18 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
83.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 3 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+7
83.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 7 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+4
81.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Lavon Coleman for 4 yds to the Utah 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11END OF HALF13 plays · 49 yds · 1:4817% → 19%
Q2 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
81.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 19 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
80.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for 3 yds to the Wash 21Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
80.5%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Greg Gaines for a loss of 5 yards to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2021% → 29%
Q3 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
80.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 25 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
76.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 31 yds to the Wash 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
75.5%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 6 yds to the Wash 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13MISSED FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:4175% → 74%
UTAHDrive 14TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:5831% → 61%
Q3 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+36
70.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 36 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
60.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Siale Fakailoatonga for 20 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD3 plays · 76 yds · 0:3947% → 68%
UTAHDrive 16TD14 plays · 66 yds · 4:3836% → 73%
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-10
64.0%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Tevis Bartlett for a loss of 10 yards to the Utah 27Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
59.9%
UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mitch Wishnowsky) to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
62.8%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 9 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+39
56.1%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jake Jackson for 39 yds to the Wash 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17DOWNS17 plays · 61 yds · 6:0937% → 26%
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
36.3%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Baccellia, Andre, PENALTY UTAH holding (Tauteoli, Sunia) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
37.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 3 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
37.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 5 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
38.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Lavon Coleman for 5 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
36.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 7 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
36.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 10 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-2
30.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1885% → 87%
WASHDrive 19TD9 plays · 61 yds · 0:5716% → 66%
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
14.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Lavon Coleman, broken up by Donavan ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+14
13.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 14 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
18.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 9 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
21.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 2 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
18.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 6 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+28
24.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Will Dissly for 28 yds to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2051% → 51%
Q4 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
45.2%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Demari Simpkins, broken up by Ben Burr-KirvenSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
46.8%
Tyler Huntley run for 1 yd to the Utah 34 Tyler Huntley fumbled, forced by Myles Bryant, recovered by Utah Tyler HuntleySimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
49.2%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 51 yds · 0:2456% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
+41.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Tristan Vizcaino 38 yd FG GOOD
+29.4
TD · Q4 10:52
Tyler Huntley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)
-28.9