2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Husky Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:02 · Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:07: Max Borghi run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:53: Jacob Eason run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +2.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:12: Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 16 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +4.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:38: Richard Newton run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +8.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:54: Richard Newton run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +10.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:00WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q1 7:31WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.5%average punt
- Q2 11:38WSU 4th & 11 at WASH 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.622% to convertField goalTheir call34.7%87% to makePunt31.5%−3.2average punt
- Q2 11:32WASH 4th & 5 at WSU 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.8%42% to convertField goal64.3%−0.545% to makePunt63.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 7:06WSU 4th & 27 at WSU 3, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it27.1%−2.75% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q2 0:02WASH 4th & 2 at midfield, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt80.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 6:40WSU 4th & 20 at WASH 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snapGo for it6.5%−2.19% to convertField goalTheir call8.7%75% to makePunt3.8%−4.9average punt
- Q4 12:57WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 14, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q4 6:35WASH 4th & 1 at WSU 5, up 15Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.4%67% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%−1.192% to makePunt92.7%−3.7average punt
- Q4 3:31WSU 4th & 5 at WASH 15, down 18Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%−0.339% to convertField goal2.1%83% to makePunt1.1%−1.1average punt
- Q4 3:06WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 23, up 18Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:07WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.0%97% to makeGo for two33.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:53WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.5%97% to makeGo for two67.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:12WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38WASH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:54WASH Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD14 plays · 81 yds · 5:5328% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 5 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+16
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 16 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 3 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+9
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 9 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
72.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
WSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
68.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 3 yds to the WshSt 17Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
68.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 4 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
68.3%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 50 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for no gain to the Wash 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:1568% → 71%
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+57
67.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 57 yds to the WASHINGTON 12 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5FG17 plays · 64 yds · 7:1530% → 35%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
69.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 3 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
68.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 3 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
69.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
68.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+4
68.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 4 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
67.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-1
66.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 34Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
66.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 22 yds to the Wash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
66.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 5 yds to the Wash 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-8
67.0%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Edefuan Ulofoshio for a loss of 8 yards to the Wash 11 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Anthony Gordon) to the Wash 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD12 plays · 72 yds · 4:2066% → 73%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
66.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 20 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+15
65.6%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Otton, Cade, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Beekman, Bryce) 15 yards to the WSU40, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
68.0%
Salvon Ahmed run for 5 yds to the WshSt 35 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WshSt 45Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+8
66.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 8 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
67.8%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terrell Bynum, broken up by Derrick LangfordSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+7
66.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 7 yds to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
68.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 12 yds to the WshSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
73.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 16 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -17 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
70.0%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Ryan Bowman for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 11 Anthony Gordon fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 19
OWN 11
-8
70.4%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Joe Tryon for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 3Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 27
OWN 3
+12
71.8%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 56 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 12 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4173% → 83%
WSUDrive 9INT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5718% → 17%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
81.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-9
81.0%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Ryan Bowman and Edefuan Ulofoshio for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
83.4%
Anthony Gordon pass intercepted Elijah Molden return for no gain to the Wash 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3084% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0681% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
81.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 14 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
82.0%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, offside defense (Karson Block) to the Wash 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
82.2%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Bynum, Terrell (Marsh, Armani), PENALTY WSU holding (Strong, Marcus) 10 yards to the WSU45, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
82.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Hunter Bryant for 39 yds to the WshSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.3%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Jones, Ty, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Strong, Marcus) 2 yards to the WSU2, 1ST DOWN WASH, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG13 plays · 55 yds · 5:1411% → 11%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
88.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
89.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 13 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+18
88.7%
Anthony Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (Zion Tupuola-Fetui) to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
87.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 24 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
86.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 8 yds to the Wash 12Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
86.8%
Anthony Gordon sacked by Joe Tryon for a loss of 11 yards to the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FUMBLE7 plays · 48 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 2 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
50
+13
90.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 13 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
90.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 13 yds Aaron Fuller fumbled, forced by Jahad Woods, recovered by WshSt Misiona Aiolupotea-PeiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14FUMBLE13 plays · 63 yds · 3:5711% → 9%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
89.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
88.7%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 4 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for no gain to the Wash 48Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
87.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 7 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
89.9%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 7 yds to the Wash 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
90.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for no gain Deon McIntosh fumbled, forced by Trent McDuffie, recovered by Wash Myles BryantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
WSUDrive 16INT3 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WASHDrive 17FG6 plays · 35 yds · 3:3996% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18DOWNS14 plays · 60 yds · 3:043% → 2%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 3 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
97.1%
Gordon, Anthony pass incomplete to Borghi, Max, PENALTY WASH holding (Williams, C.) 10 yards to the WSU38, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
97.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 9 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
96.8%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 5 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.9%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Deon McIntosh, broken up by Laiatu LatuSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
96.6%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 8 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+6
96.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
96.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 5 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
97.9%
Anthony Gordon pass incomplete to Dezmon Patmon, broken up by Elijah MoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
WSUDrive 20END OF GAME8 plays · 48 yds · 1:132% → 1%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.3%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 5 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
98.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.4%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Travell Harris for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 7
50
+19
98.5%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 4 yds to the WASHINGTON 46 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (Kyler Gordon) to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.0%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 4 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+11
99.2%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Renard Bell for 11 yds to the Wash 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Richard Newton run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 1:38
Richard Newton run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 7:12
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 16 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+4.4