2019 · Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 21, 2019 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:40 · Jacob Eason run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:32: Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +2.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:46: Salvon Ahmed run for 8 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +6.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:06: Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Cade Otton — WASH win probability +4.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:22: Richard Newton run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:44: Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 10 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:40WASH 4th & 1 at BOIS 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.1%70% to convertField goal60.7%−0.428% to makePunt60.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:41BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.2%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.9%average punt
- Q1 2:31WASH 4th & 5 at midfield, up 7Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snapGo for it65.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:39BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snapGo for it32.6%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 5:01BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 40, down 14Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:20WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.5%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q2 0:23BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.951% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%average punt
- Q3 13:31WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it82.0%−2.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.4%average punt
- Q3 8:00BOIS 4th & 3 at WASH 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.3%53% to convertField goal4.4%−0.938% to makePunt4.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:24WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 34, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it92.5%−1.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.8%average punt
- Q4 14:11BOIS 4th & 4 at WASH 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%48% to convertField goal4.5%−1.434% to makePunt4.8%−1.2average punt
- Q4 10:08BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 23, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 7:00WASH 4th & 3 at BOIS 35, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%53% to convertField goal98.8%−0.245% to makePunt98.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 4:00WASH 4th & 1 at BOIS 14, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%71% to convertField goal99.1%−0.284% to makePunt98.7%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:32WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.5%97% to makeGo for two63.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:46WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:22WASH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:44BOIS Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.1%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:44WASH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 2:29WASH Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1INT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5136% → 36%
WASHDrive 2TD12 plays · 52 yds · 5:5865% → 68%
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
64.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for 7 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
64.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
65.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 7 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
65.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 2 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
68.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3433% → 32%
Q1 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
67.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Matt Pistone for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0469% → 68%
BOISDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4232% → 30%
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+7
68.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Garrett Collingham for 7 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
68.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Hightower for 12 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
68.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+3
69.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 40 yds , Aaron Fuller returns for 3 yds to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD13 plays · 74 yds · 5:3570% → 80%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
69.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 8 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
70.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 10 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+7
71.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
71.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2922% → 21%
WASHDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 3:2080% → 82%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
80.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 3 yds to the Wash 21Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-2
80.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 19Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+15
80.4%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Baccellia, Andre, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Williams, Avery) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+2
81.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 2 yds to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:4418% → 17%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
82.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+9
82.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 9 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
83.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
82.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10END OF HALF6 plays · 41 yds · 0:1484% → 86%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
84.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Marquis Spiker for 26 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
84.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for 6 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
85.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 9 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1685% → 84%
BOISDrive 12INT5 plays · 25 yds · 2:0915% → 14%
WASHDrive 13TD3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4490% → 95%
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+22
90.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 22 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD14 plays · 77 yds · 5:105% → 10%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
94.8%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 21 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
94.6%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 7 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+21
95.2%
CT Thomas pass complete to Octavius Evans for 21 yds to the Wash 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
94.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wash 22Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+6
95.0%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to Octavius Evans for 6 yds to the Wash 16Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 10 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 3:1393% → 93%
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 2 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
92.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 9 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-7
93.6%
Jacob Eason sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Wash 34Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+29
93.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 41 yds , Avery Williams returns for 29 yds to the Wash 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 2:017% → 6%
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
93.2%
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to CT Thomas for 4 yds to the Wash 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:1795% → 99%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
95.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 18 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+23
95.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 23 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
96.2%
Davis, Cameron rush for 17 yards to the BOISEST0, PENALTY WASHINGTON holding 10 yards to the BOISEST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
98.8%
Richard Newton pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 10:08
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
98.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD12 plays · 55 yds · 7:2899% → 100%
Q4 7:00
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+12
99.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sean McGrew for 12 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20FUMBLE10 plays · 52 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 9 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 4 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+54
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Hightower for no gain John Hightower fumbled, forced by Elijah Molden, recovered by Wash Jackson Sirmon , return for 54 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:46
Salvon Ahmed run for 8 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 4:44
Jaylon Henderson pass complete to George Holani for 10 yds for a TD (Eric Sachse KICK)
-6
TD · Q3 10:22
Richard Newton run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
+5.1