Utah

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2582nd
  Defense+0.0881st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.8%87th
  Defense40.1%70th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2851st
  Defense+1.2844th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2894th
  Defense+0.0860th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2353rd
  Defense+0.1376th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.4%84th
  Defense47.9%46th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.1%76th
  Defense25.9%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4389th
  Defense3.0448th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%58th
  Defense19.8%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.9%84th
  Defense20.2%94th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Utah allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WEB
2. L
   BYU
3. L
   SDSU
4. W
   WSU
5. W
   USC
6. W
   ASU
7. L
   ORST
8. W
   UCLA
9. W
   STAN
10. W
    ARIZ
11. W
    ORE
12. W
    COLO
13. W
    ORE
14. L
    OSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Utah.

Players, 2021

1. Cameron RisingQB339 plays · +0.331 pts/play · 29th of 219 QBs
   2.10WAR1.47 to 2.75
2. Tavion ThomasRB156 plays · +0.250 pts/play · 30th of 387 RBs
   0.73WAR0.57 to 0.89
3. T.J. PledgerRB94 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 138th of 387 RBs
   0.32WAR0.23 to 0.41
4. Micah BernardRB82 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 189th of 387 RBs
   0.24WAR0.18 to 0.32
5. Charlie BrewerQB54 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 179th of 219 QBs
   0.19WAR0.09 to 0.28
6. Britain CoveyWR58 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 110th of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.21
7. Devaughn VeleWR26 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 296th of 474 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.10
8. Solomon EnisWR18 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 349th of 474 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Utah's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  70870831st of 130Roster talent: 708, 31st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20620634th of 130Recruiting: 206, 34th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%118th of 128Returning production: 37%, 118th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +15.2+15.216th of 130SP+ rating: +15.2, 16th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Utah's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at SDSUQ4 8:58 4th & 12 at SDSU 12, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.5 pts
2. at BYUQ3 13:24 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. at OSUQ4 8:19 4th & 4 at UTAH 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs UCLAQ4 7:23 4th & 1 at UCLA 49, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. at ORSTQ4 2:38 4th & 3 at ORST 15, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs UCLAQ3 6:52 4th & 2 at UCLA 44, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. at SDSUQ2 14:16 4th & 1 at UTAH 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at OSUQ3 12:12 4th & 5 at UTAH 25, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

40th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Utah's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WEB
2. L

   BYU
3. L

   SDSU
4. W

   WSU
5. W

   USC
6. W

   ASU
7. L

   ORST
8. W

   UCLA
9. W

   STAN
10. W

    ARIZ
11. W

    ORE
12. W

    COLO
13. W

    ORE
14. L

    OSU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Utah's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.96
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.30
• Other−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.96

Game by game

• WEBW 40-17 vs WEB96% → 92%Before kickoff +46 · On the field −5: Scoreboard +11, Timeouts −1
• BYUL 17-26 at BYU68% → 2%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −3
• SDSUL 31-33 at SDSU66% → 40%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −26: Timeouts +25, Clock −16
• WSUW 24-13 vs WSU81% → 98%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position +1
• USCW 42-26 at USC32% → 99%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +60, Clock +3
• ASUW 35-21 vs ASU46% → 99%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +2
• ORSTL 34-42 at ORST55% → 3%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −2
• UCLAW 44-24 vs UCLA61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• STANW 52-7 at STAN75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +30
• ARIZW 38-29 at ARIZ93% → 97%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• OREW 38-7 vs ORE51% → 100%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +47
• COLOW 28-13 vs COLO93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• OREW 38-10 vs ORE51% → 100%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts +1
• OSUL 45-48 at OSU52% → 10%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +6

Points of win probability, from Utah's side.

Closest call

KSU 47-51 UTAH (2025) - Utah dropped to a 8.1% win probability before pulling it out.