2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:00 · Jadon Redding 31 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:14: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +5.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:40: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 26 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:18: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the WshSt 24 — WSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:43: TJ Pledger run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK) — UTAH win probability +31.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:19: Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK) — UTAH win probability +12.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 11:25WSU 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.0%71% to convertField goal16.8%−0.247% to makePunt16.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:43UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q1 8:43WSU 4th & 2 at UTAH 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.0%57% to convertField goal17.8%−0.240% to makePunt17.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:29UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%average punt
- Q2 10:34WSU 4th & 15 at UTAH 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.816% to convertField goalTheir call22.3%72% to makePunt20.0%−2.4average punt
- Q2 8:54UTAH 4th & 15 at UTAH 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it71.7%−1.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%average punt
- Q2 6:32WSU 4th & 13 at WSU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it26.2%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q2 0:49WSU 4th & 1 at UTAH 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.2%71% to convertField goal24.5%−0.781% to makePunt20.9%−4.3average punt
- Q2 0:00WSU 4th & 1 at UTAH 4, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snapGo for it27.2%65% to convertField goalTheir call25.4%−1.893% to makePunt20.6%−6.7average punt
- Q3 9:15UTAH 4th & 9 at WSU 11, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snapGo for it57.2%−1.527% to convertField goalTheir call58.7%87% to makePunt47.8%−10.9average punt
- Q3 3:39WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it37.8%−5.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q3 1:00UTAH 4th & 13 at WSU 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snapGo for it51.6%−3.617% to convertField goalTheir call55.2%85% to makePunt42.1%−13.0average punt
- Q4 12:45WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it48.7%−1.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%average punt
- Q4 8:42WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it55.0%−2.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q4 2:19WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.7%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.4%−3.3average punt
- Q4 0:50WSU 4th & 25 at WSU 22, down 11Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 4:14UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.6%97% to makeGo for two78.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:40WSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:43UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.8%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−1.745% to convert
- Q4 2:19UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two95.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3519% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.4%
UTAH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Faybian Marks) to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
81.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Van Fillinger for 0 yards to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
81.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 12 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4281% → 80%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
80.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 8 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
80.7%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 47 fumbled, recovered by Utah Micah BernardSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+7
80.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 7 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 46
-5
80.5%
UTAH Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Britain Covey) to the Utah 49Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
79.5%
Cameron Peasley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3INT11 plays · 64 yds · 5:5521% → 24%
Q1 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+16
79.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 16 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
79.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 8 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+8
79.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 8 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted return for no gain to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1978% → 77%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5FG11 plays · 58 yds · 5:5523% → 27%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
76.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 12 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Junior Tafuna for 0 yards to the WshSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 36
-15
76.3%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WshSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
75.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 8 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
74.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 12 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.7%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Mika Tafua for 0 yards to the Utah 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 31
+5
75.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 5 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 26
+4
75.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 4 yds to the Utah 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3573% → 71%
WSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3731% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1871% → 80%
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
70.6%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Isom) to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9FG16 plays · 71 yds · 4:1423% → 29%
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.5%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, False Start (De'Zhaun Stribling) to the WshSt 20Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
77.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 14 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
76.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 5 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
76.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
75.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 22 yds to the Utah 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
74.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 7 yds to the Utah 18Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
74.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 3 yds to the Utah 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FUMBLE1 play · -4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1530% → 46%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
69.9%
MCINTOSH, Deon rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the UTE13 (MCKINNEY, Brandon). PENALTY COU Holding on LEAHY, JP enforced 10 yards from the UTE21 to the UTE31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+26
54.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 26 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12FG12 plays · 64 yds · 4:2560% → 63%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
62.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 13 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
63.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 14 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+8
64.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 8 yds to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
64.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd to the WshSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13INT7 plays · 2 yds · 2:4740% → 41%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Aliki Vimahi for 0 yards to the WshSt 28Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
59.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-10
58.6%
MCINTOSH, Deon rush to the right for a gain of 15 yards to the UTE48 (MCKINNEY, Brandon). PENALTY COU Holding on VICTOR, Lincoln enforced 10 yards from the COU37 to the COU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 21
OWN 27
0
58.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted return for no gain to the WshSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4367% → 67%
WSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0641% → 42%
UTAHDrive 16MISSED FG10 plays · 41 yds · 2:3963% → 58%
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+27
63.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 27 yds to the WshSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
65.5%
RISING, Cameron pass up the middle incomplete intended for KINCAID, Dalton thrown to the COU10. PENALTY COU Pass Interference on MARSH, Armani enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the COU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1545% → 49%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
54.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Deon McIntosh for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
54.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 15 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
51.5%
Nick Haberer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FUMBLE6 plays · 83 yds · 0:0054% → 64%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
54.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 9 yds to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3655% → 55%
UTAHDrive 20TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5950% → 89%
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
50.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 9 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
53.3%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offsides (Ahmir Crowder) to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
54.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 18 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21DOWNS TD5 plays · -25 yds · 2:2417% → 3%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 14 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
81.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Karene Reid for 0 yards to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+7
84.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
97.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
TJ Pledger run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+31
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:18
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the WshSt 24
-18.8
TD · Q3 13:40
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 26 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-16.3