2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Charlie Brewer pass intercepted
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:04: Tavion Thomas run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding PAT MISSED) — UTAH win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:31: Kyle Thompson 25 yd FG GOOD — WEB win probability +2.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:25: Kyle Thompson 51 yd FG GOOD — WEB win probability +3.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:35: Jadon Redding kickoff for 70 yds — WEB win probability +2.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:43: Bronson Barron pass complete to Hayden Meacham for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Thompson KICK) — WEB win probability +1.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WEB made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 13:22WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 13:22WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 8:39UTAH 4th & 7 at WEB 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.9%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%91% to makePunt94.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:22WEB 4th & 8 at WEB 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q1 4:22WEB 4th & 12 at WEB 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q1 2:53UTAH 4th & 6 at WEB 13, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%85% to makePunt93.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 0:28WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q1 0:28WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 14:44UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 25, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 14:44UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 25, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 4:36WEB 4th & 1 at UTAH 1, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%59% to convertField goal5.6%−0.794% to makePunt4.0%−2.2average punt
- Q2 0:00UTAH 4th & 14 at WEB 44, up 12Close callWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%−0.819% to convertField goal93.2%−0.727% to makePunt93.9%average punt
- Q3 10:31WEB 4th & 4 at UTAH 8, down 12Close callKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.5%42% to convertField goalTheir call7.3%−0.290% to makePunt4.6%−2.9average punt
- Q3 9:05UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, up 9Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:25WEB 4th & 9 at UTAH 34, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call8.7%47% to makePunt8.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:23WEB 4th & 21 at WEB 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it12.5%−3.88% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q4 11:44UTAH 4th & 1 at WEB 1, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.3%59% to convertField goal85.5%−2.994% to makePunt78.1%−10.3average punt
- Q4 10:12WEB 4th & 2 at WEB 9, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%−2.1average punt
- Q4 7:49WEB 4th & 1 at WEB 45, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.8%−4.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:07UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:04UTAH Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
96.1%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Justin Malone for 5 yds to the WebSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.1%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Shaheed,Rashid) 5 yards from WSU25 to WSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 36Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2FG11 plays · 57 yds · 4:4396% → 95%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
95.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Micah Bernard for 16 yds to the WebSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+8
95.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Micah Bernard for 8 yds to the WebSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+6
95.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 6 yds to the WebSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
95.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Kuithe,Brant PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Smith,Preston) 15 yards from UTA36 to WSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1995% → 95%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Micah Bernard for 17 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
94.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 14 yds to the WebSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
94.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Solomon Enis for 24 yds to the WebSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
94.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 17 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:376% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2994% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:206% → 7%
Q1 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
93.9%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Ty MacPherson for 7 yds to the WebSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 20Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4494% → 93%
Q2 14:44
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+65
93.1%
Cameron Peasley punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAH 25 WEBER ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Eddie Heckard) to the WebSt 27Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+65
93.1%
Cameron Peasley punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAH 25 WEBER ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Eddie Heckard) to the WebSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 8INT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:327% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD3 plays · 31 yds · 1:0894% → 95%
WEBDrive 10DOWNS21 plays · 74 yds · 7:286% → 6%
Q2 12:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
94.0%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Ty MacPherson for 7 yds to the WebSt 27Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
94.0%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Ty MacPherson for 13 yds to the WebSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
50
+14
93.5%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Justin Malone for 14 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
93.4%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Jon Christensen for 2 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+8
94.0%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Rashid Shaheed for 8 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
93.5%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Justin Malone for 13 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11INT9 plays · 55 yds · 4:3695% → 94%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
94.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
94.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
94.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
95.0%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Conner Mortensen for a loss of 10 yards to the WebSt 47Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+3
94.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 3 yds to the WebSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
WEBDrive 13FG8 plays · 24 yds · 3:448% → 10%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-5
92.5%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Szilagyi,Trevor) 5 yards from UTA34 to UTA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+9
93.0%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Jon Christensen for 9 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+16
92.7%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Jon Christensen for 16 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+5
92.6%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Randal Grimes for 5 yds to the Utah 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2691% → 91%
WEBDrive 15FG5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4010% → 14%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
90.4%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Randal Grimes for 36 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:5888% → 89%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Howard,Theo for 9 yards to the UTA43 (Heckard,Eddie), out of bounds PENALTY UTA Illegal Block in Back offsetting WSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 12
50
+35
88.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 35 yds to the WebSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
88.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Solomon Enis for 8 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 3:0415% → 15%
Q3 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
85.9%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Ty MacPherson for 19 yds to the WebSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
83.6%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Szilagyi,Trevor) 5 yards from WSU42 to WSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
84.8%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Ty MacPherson for 2 yds to the WebSt 39Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-8
85.3%
Bronson Barron sacked by Devin Lloyd for a loss of 8 yards to the WebSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 71 yds · 4:3988% → 89%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
87.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Howard,Theo PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Garrett,Kamden) 15 yards from UTA28 to UTA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
89.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 5 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
89.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Solomon Enis for 22 yds to the WebSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
89.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 12 yds to the WebSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
89.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 1 yd to the WebSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
88.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Britain Covey for 5 yds to the WebSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 19PUNT3 plays · 8 yds · 1:3217% → 14%
UTAHDrive 20TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:2891% → 91%
WEBDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
82.5%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Josh Davis for 7 yds to the WebSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22TD2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3891% → 91%
WEBDrive 23TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0618% → 26%
Q4 7:49
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-5
79.0%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Lutui,Jordan) 5 yards from WSU44 to WSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
80.3%
Bronson Barron sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 5 yards to the WebSt 34Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+11
83.4%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Justin Malone for 11 yds to the WebSt 45Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
76.6%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Logan Snyder for 10 yds to the Utah 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
75.9%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Hudson Schenck for 22 yds to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.5%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Hayden Meacham for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 29 yds · 2:4393% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.5
FG · Q3 7:25
Kyle Thompson 51 yd FG GOOD
-3.3
FG · Q3 10:31
Kyle Thompson 25 yd FG GOOD
-2.3