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UTAH

Utah 38 at Arizona 29

ARIZ
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:34 · Cameron Rising run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−10.0Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:24: Lucas Havrisik 57 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:02: Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +10.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:57: Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 17 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +7.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:34: Rhedi Short 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARIZ win probability +19.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:10: TJ Pledger run for 2 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:44ARIZ 4th & 5 at UTAH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:04ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:13UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:37ARIZ 4th & 1 at UTAH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:10UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:24ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTAH 40, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:33ARIZ 4th & 13 at UTAH 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:58UTAH 4th & 4 at ARIZ 12, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−9.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:29ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:31ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTAH 4, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:34UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:34UTAH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−11.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:02ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 23, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:05UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:44ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:55UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:02UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:57UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:34ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:10UTAH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5593% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.0%
TJ Pledger run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
7.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 8 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
7.0%
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
7.0%
TJ Pledger run for 3 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+27
7.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 27 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
7.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 2 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+11
7.0%
Micah Bernard run for 11 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
7.0%
TJ Pledger run for 1 yd to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
7.0%
KUITHE, Brant rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ARI10 (YOUNG, Jaydin). PENALTY Before the snap, ARI Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARI16 to the ARI11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
8.0%
Cameron Rising run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:218% → 10%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
8.3%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+8
8.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 8 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
8.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 15 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
8.4%
Will Plummer run for 5 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
8.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+43
9.8%
Will Plummer run for 43 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0090% → 89%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
9.7%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 24Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
9.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
9.8%
RISING, Cameron pass up the middle complete for 41 yards to COVEY, Britain caught at the ARI35 and advanced to the ARI35 (STUKES, Treydan). PENALTY UTA Holding on DANIELS, Braeden enforced 10 yards from the UTA24 to the UTA14 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+12
9.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 12 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-3
10.8%
Michael Williams punt for 43 yds , Tayvian Cunningham returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:0311% → 16%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
10.6%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+16
10.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 16 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
11.0%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 3 yds to the Utah 48Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
11.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+11
10.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 11 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
11.1%
Tayvian Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
11.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stevie Rocker Jr. for 2 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
12.9%
Jamarye Joiner pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
13.1%
run for 14 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
15.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4685% → 88%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
14.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 29 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
13.9%
TJ Pledger run for 13 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
13.6%
TJ Pledger run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+12
13.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 12 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
14.6%
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
12.0%
TJ Pledger run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4414% → 14%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
13.7%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
13.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
13.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 8
OWN 20
-2
13.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 52 yds , Britain Covey returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5187% → 84%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
13.5%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
13.6%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
13.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.3%
Cameron Rising run for no gain to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
13.4%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
13.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
15.7%
Michael Williams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3616% → 19%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
16.0%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
15.8%
run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+15
15.4%
PLUMMER, Will pass up the middle incomplete intended for BERRYHILL III, Stanley thrown to the ARI35. PENALTY UTA Personal Foul on BISHOP, Cole enforced 15 yards from the ARI19 to the ARI34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
16.1%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
16.8%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+32
16.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 32 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
17.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
17.4%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 8 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
17.0%
Will Plummer run for 1 yd to the Utah 19Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
19.1%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for no gain to the Utah 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2783% → 80%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
16.6%
TJ Pledger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 18Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+7
16.9%
TJ Pledger run for 7 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+12
16.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 12 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
16.1%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
15.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
16.3%
TEAM sacked by Jalen Harris for 0 yards to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
20.2%
Michael Williams punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4622% → 27%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
22.0%
Will Plummer sacked by Junior Tafuna for 0 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
21.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+14
21.1%
PLUMMER, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for BERRYHILL III, Stanley thrown to the ARI45. PENALTY UTA Roughing the Passer on BISHOP, Cole enforced 14 yards from the ARI39 to the UTA47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
23.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
23.2%
Will Plummer run for 1 yd to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
22.8%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+57
26.9%
Lucas Havrisik 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:2274% → 85%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+21
24.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
22.6%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
23.8%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+9
24.1%
Cameron Rising run for 9 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
22.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
22.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
22.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
23.7%
RISING, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for FOTHERINGHAM, Cole thrown to the ARI0. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on YOUNG, Christian enforced 4 yards to the ARI2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2719% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+45
18.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 45 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
22.8%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
22.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 6 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+10
21.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen John for 10 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
22.8%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the Utah 9Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
25.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen John for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 13Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
22.8%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
23.8%
Tyler Loop 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3577% → 80%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
23.1%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Maile) to the Utah 20Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
23.4%
Micah Bernard run for 12 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
21.7%
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
22.3%
TJ Pledger run for 5 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.4%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+43
21.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to TJ Pledger for 43 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.5%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
19.8%
Chris Curry run for 8 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-2
20.5%
TJ Pledger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 12Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
20.2%
Jadon Redding 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2923% → 23%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.8%
run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
23.2%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
23.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Britain Covey at the Utah 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:3278% → 89%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
22.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 20 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
20.0%
TJ Pledger run for 3 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+13
20.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 13 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.6%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+16
18.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jerry Roberts) to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
10.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 17 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:1912% → 16%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
12.2%
Jalen John run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
11.9%
Will Plummer run for 4 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
11.5%
UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (Junior Tafuna) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.2%
Jamarye Joiner sacked by Cole Bishop for 0 yards to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
11.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+28
11.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 28 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
14.5%
run for 6 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
14.7%
Jalen John run for 6 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
15.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 18 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
15.7%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
15.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Josh McCauley) to the Utah 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+6
14.7%
UTAH Penalty, Roughing the Passer on KAUFUSI, Devin enforced half the distance from the goal (Devin Kaufusi) to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
15.7%
Stanley Berryhill III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
15.7%
Michael Wiley pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the Utah 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
14.7%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
16.2%
Tyler Loop 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5788% → 67%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.3%
TJ Pledger run for 3 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
12.0%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
32.7%
Rhedi Short 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:2471% → 95%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 11 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
27.6%
TJ Pledger run for 13 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
25.8%
TJ Pledger run for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-10
24.8%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dalton Kincaid) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 9
50
+4
25.7%
TJ Pledger run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
25.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
27.7%
Cameron Rising run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
25.3%
TJ Pledger run for 11 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
23.4%
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
23.4%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+12
24.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
23.3%
TJ Pledger run for no gain to the Ariz 13Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
17.6%
UTAH Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+13
18.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Face mask (13 yards) (Isaiah Mays) to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
16.3%
TJ Pledger run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.0%
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:084% → 3%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.2%
Will Plummer run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Will Plummer sacked by Mika Tafua for 0 yards to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
3.9%
Will Plummer run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
3.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:34
Rhedi Short 3 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+19.9
TD · Q4 2:10
TJ Pledger run for 2 yds for a TD (Jadon Redding KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 0:02
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com