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UTAH

Utah 34 at Oregon State 42

ORST
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Cameron Rising run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−3.9Pregame prior−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.0Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:59: Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Colletto for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +11.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 10:48: Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +14.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 5:01: Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — UTAH win probability +19.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:58: Trevon Bradford run for 10 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +19.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:49: B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +18.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:57ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UTAH 4th & 1 at ORST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:15UTAH 4th & 5 at ORST 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−4.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:47UTAH 4th & 2 at ORST 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−7.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:08ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:26UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:26UTAH 4th & 20 at ORST 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:22UTAH 4th & 2 at ORST 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−3.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:47ORST 4th & 5 at UTAH 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:38UTAH 4th & 3 at ORST 15, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%−1.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:02UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:19UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:52ORST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:59ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:46UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:48ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:01UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:58ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:49ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5856% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.5%
Britain Covey run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
44.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the Utah 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
44.5%
RISING, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for KUITHE, Brant thrown to the UTA48. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on OLADAPO, Kitan enforced 15 yards to the UTA46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
44.5%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+9
44.5%
Cameron Rising run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+13
44.5%
TJ Pledger run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
44.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Face mask (9 yards) (Jaydon Grant) to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
43.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 14 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5744% → 44%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
44.2%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+3
44.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
44.1%
Chance Nolan sacked for 0 yards to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 19
OWN 1
0
43.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3857% → 60%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
43.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 14 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
43.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+3
43.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
43.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
43.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 11 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2741% → 44%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
40.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 14 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
41.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
41.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-5
41.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
41.5%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
41.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
41.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
41.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+4
41.7%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
41.9%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the Utah 19Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
42.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Utah 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
44.4%
Anthony Gould run for 14 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 7:3758% → 62%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
41.1%
TJ Pledger run for 3 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
41.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Theo Howard for 7 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
40.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 5 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
40.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
40.6%
Tavion Thomas run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
40.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 5 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
40.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
41.0%
Cameron Rising run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
40.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 8 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
40.0%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
40.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
40.0%
TJ Pledger run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
40.0%
Cameron Rising run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
40.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
37.9%
Jordan Noyes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1637% → 49%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.9%
Jesiah Irish run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+68
37.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 68 yds to the Utah 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Colletto for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1255% → 56%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
44.7%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 22Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
45.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+21
45.9%
Cameron Rising run for 21 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
43.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+41
43.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 41 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
41.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
44.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0445% → 45%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
45.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+4
44.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
45.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+15
45.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 15 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.2%
Chance Nolan sacked for 0 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5760% → 69%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
39.6%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-3
40.0%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+16
41.2%
Cameron Rising run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.8%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:3833% → 31%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.2%
Chance Nolan run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
32.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
33.0%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
32.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
31.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 55 yds, downed at the Utah 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1232% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
33.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
33.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+36
32.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 36 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
35.8%
Trevon Bradford run for 10 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
35.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the Utah 7Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 7
-3
34.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the Utah 12Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
34.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Utah 11Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
48.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT TD
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:2256% → 37%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.0%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
43.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 1 yd to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
44.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Cole Fotheringham for 6 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
42.9%
Brant Kuithe run for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
44.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to TJ Pledger for 5 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
44.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
63.3%
punt blocked by Luke Musgrave blocked by Luke Musgrave for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2539% → 64%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Targeting on GRANT, Jaydon enforced (Jaydon Grant) to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
57.1%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
57.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 10 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
55.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 29 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5645% → 70%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
44.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
47.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+38
44.3%
Trey Lowe run for 38 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
51.2%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for BRADFORD, Trevon thrown to the UTA11 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UTA Targeting on LLOYD, Devin enforced 15 yards from the UTA31 to the UTA16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
51.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the Utah 10Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
70.4%
Trevon Bradford run for 10 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:3237% → 33%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
60.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
62.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Alexander Skelton) to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
58.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
58.4%
TJ Pledger run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-3
60.0%
Cameron Rising run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.4%
Cameron Rising run for no gain to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
58.0%
QB Keeper RISING, Cameron rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the OSU11 (JONES, Elijah). PENALTY UTA Holding on DANIELS, Braeden enforced 10 yards from the OSU24 to the OSU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
60.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 20
OPP 34
0
63.4%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+52
66.8%
Jordan Noyes 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1169% → 91%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
69.2%
Anthony Gould run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
71.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
71.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+11
70.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 11 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
72.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 32 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:2712% → 10%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 15 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
86.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 15 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
85.4%
Cameron Rising run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
84.5%
Micah Bernard run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
84.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 9 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+7
84.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.0%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
84.0%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.3%
Cameron Rising run for no gain to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
90.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:3592% → 95%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
91.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
91.8%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+54
91.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 54 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
93.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Musgrave) to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
95.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+3
95.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+6
95.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 6 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
95.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:094% → 7%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
96.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 43 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
95.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
95.4%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 15
OPP 27
0
95.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+12
96.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
93.3%
Jordan Noyes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
96.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:58
Trevon Bradford run for 10 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+19.2
TD · Q3 5:01
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-19
TD · Q4 9:49
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com