Troy

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0838th
  Defense0.0090th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.6%25th
  Defense39.9%72nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2972nd
  Defense+1.0995th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0332nd
  Defense+0.0271st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2659th
  Defense+0.0492nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.4%22nd
  Defense46.5%60th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.0%31st
  Defense25.9%84th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8817th
  Defense3.0942nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.2%45th
  Defense16.5%46th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.7%52nd
  Defense16.4%54th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Troy allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MISS
2. W
   AAMU
3. L
   APP
4. W
   MRSH
5. W
   WKU
6. W
   USM
7. W
   TXST
8. W
   USA
9. W
   UL
10. W
    ARMY
11. W
    ULM
12. W
    ARST
13. W
    CCU
14. W
    UTSA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Troy.

Players, 2022

1. Gunnar WatsonQB321 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 102nd of 234 QBs
   0.73WAR0.15 to 1.39
2. Kimani VidalRB210 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 38th of 384 RBs
   0.47WAR0.27 to 0.67
3. DK BillingsleyRB130 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 56th of 384 RBs
   0.40WAR0.30 to 0.51
4. Tez JohnsonWR64 plays · +0.227 pts/play · 24th of 455 WRs
   0.27WAR0.14 to 0.39
5. Jarret DoegeQB68 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 179th of 234 QBs
   0.19WAR0.06 to 0.33
6. Deshon StoudemireWR45 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 105th of 455 WRs
   0.16WAR0.08 to 0.24
7. RaJae' JohnsonWR35 plays · +0.227 pts/play · 116th of 455 WRs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.21
8. Brooks BucePK18 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 13th of 110 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Troy's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  46446490th of 129Roster talent: 464, 90th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  128128110th of 129Recruiting: 128, 110th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  68%68%46th of 128Returning production: 68%, 46th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.1+8.144th of 129SP+ rating: +8.1, 44th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Troy's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs UTSAQ4 9:18 4th & 2 at UTSA 10, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. at USAQ4 14:48 4th & 1 at TROY 25, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.5 pts
3. at WKUQ4 1:56 4th & 2 at TROY 44, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
4. vs MRSHQ4 0:00 4th & 1 at MRSH 17, up 9Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
5. at ULQ2 11:17 4th & 1 at TROY 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. vs UTSAQ3 12:40 4th & 12 at UTSA 36, down 5Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs ARMYQ3 10:06 4th & 4 at ARMY 4, down 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs TXSTQ2 2:48 4th & 3 at TXST 6, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

2nd of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Troy's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MISS
2. W

   AAMU
3. L

   APP
4. W

   MRSH
5. W

   WKU
6. W

   USM
7. W

   TXST
8. W

   USA
9. W

   UL
10. W

    ARMY
11. W

    ULM
12. W

    ARST
13. W

    CCU
14. W

    UTSA

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Troy's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.49
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts+0.07
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.02

Game by game

• MISSL 10-28 at MISS8% → 1%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −13
• AAMUW 38-17 vs AAMU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• APPL 28-32 at APP15% → 5%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −2
• MRSHW 16-7 vs MRSH36% → 97%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +2
• WKUW 34-27 at WKU36% → 94%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• USMW 27-10 vs USM62% → 98%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +35, Possession & field position −2
• TXSTW 17-14 vs TXST87% → 96%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +18
• USAW 10-6 at USA41% → 87%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +43, Clock +3
• ULW 23-17 at UL60% → 87%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +39, Clock +3
• ARMYW 10-9 vs ARMY74% → 90%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +2
• ULMW 34-16 vs ULM83% → 98%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21
• ARSTW 48-19 at ARST81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +25
• CCUW 45-26 vs CCU63% → 99%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +1
• UTSAW 18-12 vs UTSA36% → 97%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Troy's side.

Closest call

USA 24-31 TROY (2021) - Troy dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.