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UTSA

UTSA 12 at Troy 18

TROY
2022 · Duluth Trading Cure Bowl · Dec 16, 2022 · Orlando City Stadium
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:32 · Mike Rivers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the TexSA 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−10.1Home team on offense−5.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:50: Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +11.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:07: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 1 yd to the TexSA 21 — TROY win probability +13.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 2:43: Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Clayton Ollendieck for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +22.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:18: Brooks Buce 27 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +10.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55: Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 8 — TROY win probability +8.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:43TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59UTSA 4th & 12 at TROY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 10, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01UTSA 4th & 2 at TROY 39, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−1.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:02TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 3, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:21UTSA 4th & 3 at TROY 24, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:40TROY 4th & 12 at UTSA 36, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:10TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:22UTSA 4th & 1 at TROY 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−6.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:58UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.4%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:18TROY 4th & 2 at UTSA 10, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−3.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−22.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01UTSA 4th & 3 at TROY 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−3.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−20.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:41TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:32UTSA 4th & 9 at TROY 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−4.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:30UTSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:43TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0136% → 36%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
35.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+1
36.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
36.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
36.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3564% → 62%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
36.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
36.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
36.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
36.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
36.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-6
36.9%
Frank Harris sacked by Shakel Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
37.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
37.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3738% → 38%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
37.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+29
38.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 29 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
38.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
39.0%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
38.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+1
38.3%
Mike Rivers punt for 46 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 19 Chris Carpenter fumbled, recovered by TexSA Chris CarpenterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0761% → 60%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
38.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
38.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
38.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
39.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
39.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 9
OWN 34
-5
39.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 67 yds, downed at the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5SF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:4740% → 38%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
39.5%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-3
39.6%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 7
-7
38.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1361% → 67%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
38.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
38.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
38.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
37.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
37.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+10
38.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
37.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
37.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
38.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
37.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Oscar CardenasSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
37.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
38.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 7 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 2 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4534% → 33%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
33.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
33.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deyunkrea LewisSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
32.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
32.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2167% → 66%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
33.5%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
33.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
33.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
33.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Kevorian BarnesSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
34.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3333% → 31%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
32.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 17
-6
33.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-8
32.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
31.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3470% → 71%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
30.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
30.2%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
30.6%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
29.5%
Jared Sackett 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11INT
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:2529% → 29%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
28.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
28.1%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Johnson, RaJae', PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Mayfield Jr., Corey) 13 yards to the TROY34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
29.1%
Gunnar Watson run for 9 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-6
29.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Trumane Bell II for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
28.3%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Brown, Demontrez, PENALTY UTSA holding (Fortune, Nicktroy) 10 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
29.7%
DK Billingsley run for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
30.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jamal Ligon for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+11
29.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
29.0%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Clifford Chattman return for no gain to the TexSA 13 Clifford Chattman fumbled, recovered by TroySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1530% → 41%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
29.2%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Stoudemire, Deshon, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Chattman, Clifford) 11 yards to the UTSA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1365% → 64%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-30
36.1%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Richard Jibunor return for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1441% → 38%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
40.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
40.5%
Tez Johnson pass incomplete to Demontrez BrownSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
38.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nick Booker-Brown) to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
38.4%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Kelechi Nwachuku return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
34.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4566% → 68%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
33.1%
Frank Harris run for 7 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-8
32.5%
Frank Harris sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 34 Frank Harris fumbled, forced by Richard Jibunor, recovered by Troy Richard Jibunor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5741% → 35%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
40.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
40.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
36.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
35.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5368% → 69%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
32.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
31.6%
Chris Carpenter run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
31.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 9 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
31.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+11
31.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 11 yds Oscar Cardenas fumbled, forced by Keyshawn Swanson, recovered by Troy Keyshawn SwansonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5236% → 33%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
36.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Corey Mayfield Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
35.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+3
34.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
33.4%
Mike Rivers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the TexSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20INT
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4466% → 70%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
33.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 20 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
31.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
31.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
32.9%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
30.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 10 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
29.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 22 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
29.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
28.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-46
30.5%
Frank Harris pass intercepted for a 1ST down KJ Robertson return for 61 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Personal Foul (Oscar Cardenas) to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2444% → 66%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
43.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
43.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
41.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
43.4%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
65.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Clayton Ollendieck for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4040% → 37%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Kevorian BarnesSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Dan DishmanSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Orlando Lacey at the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 7:3261% → 85%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
60.5%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
60.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 6 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
60.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
62.0%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+5
61.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+6
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+4
66.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
69.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 13 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
70.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TroySimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+14
69.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
71.6%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+15
70.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Asyrus Simon) to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
75.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-1
74.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 10Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
84.9%
Brooks Buce 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:0522% → 23%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
78.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 9 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
77.3%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+53
76.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 53 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
72.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:1486% → 92%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
85.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+9
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
88.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+11
88.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
90.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
91.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-6
91.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+12
92.4%
Mike Rivers punt for 53 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for 12 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0614% → 13%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+26
87.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 26 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
83.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 42 lat. to Kevorian Barnes for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
85.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
87.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5596% → 97%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
96.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:43
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Gunnar Watson pass to Clayton Ollendieck for Two-Point Conversion)
+22.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:07
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 1 yd to the TexSA 21
+13.1
TD · Q2 0:50
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com