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USM

Southern Miss 10 at Troy 27

TROY
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+1TROY 63.1%Brooks Buce 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 1:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:41 · Brooks Buce 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior+9.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:34: Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +6.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:52: DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +7.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:23: Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +17.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:14: Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 20 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +6.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:48: Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:40USM 4th & 3 at USM 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:41TROY 4th & 5 at USM 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:36USM 4th & 11 at USM 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:32TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:32USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:23TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:27USM 4th & 8 at TROY 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:20TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:14TROY 4th & 8 at USM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:49USM 4th & 28 at USM 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:02TROY 4th & 9 at USM 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32USM 4th & 1 at TROY 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:34USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:52TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:23TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:48TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
62.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
62.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-4
62.3%
Zach Wilcke sacked by T.J. Jackson and TJ Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
62.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+9
62.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 9 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
62.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:5762% → 62%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
62.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
62.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+23
62.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 23 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
62.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-1
62.6%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-4
62.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+23
61.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 40 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 23 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1739% → 39%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
61.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 2 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-1
61.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
61.5%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:4563% → 63%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
62.5%
DK Billingsley run for 11 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
62.8%
DOEGE, Jarret pass up the middle complete for 23 yards to JOHNSON, RaJae' caught at the USM24 and advanced to the USM24 (SHORTS, Malik;SCOTT, Eric). PENALTY Before the snap, TRO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USM47 to the TRO48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
62.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+10
62.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+7
62.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
63.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-6
63.0%
Jarret Doege sacked by Jordyn Mahaffey for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+10
62.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
63.1%
Brooks Buce 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5237% → 36%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-12
62.7%
Zach Wilcke sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
63.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 52 yds , Deshon Stoudemire returns for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Jarret Doege pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8INT
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:3059% → 61%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
59.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
60.0%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
59.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+16
58.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Devonte Ross for 16 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
60.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 39 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.8%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:3643% → 47%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.5%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
57.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
57.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
57.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
57.6%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+15
58.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 15 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
56.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 18 yds to the TROY 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Demarcus Jones) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 7
OWN 49
+13
56.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
52.8%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3659% → 66%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
59.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
59.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
59.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
58.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.5%
Jarret Doege run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:1036% → 34%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
63.6%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
63.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+10
64.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 10 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
63.4%
Zach Wilcke sacked by AJ Pierce for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 17
OWN 13
-5
63.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Tykeem Doss) to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 22
OWN 8
0
64.2%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+11
65.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
65.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 37 yds, downed at the Troy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0467% → 63%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.6%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
65.6%
Jarret Doege sacked by Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+6
63.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
63.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
64.3%
[NH] Kneel down by USM at USM9 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:3764% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
64.1%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
63.9%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
64.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 29 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+30
67.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 30 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
67.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
62.8%
DOEGE, Jarret pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROGERS, Marcus thrown to the TRO30. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on SCOTT, Eric enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the TRO30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
79.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5123% → 21%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
76.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
78.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 4:0979% → 79%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
78.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
78.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
77.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Michael Vice for 4 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
78.7%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
78.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-8
77.9%
Jarret Doege sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
79.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5622% → 26%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
77.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
77.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 4 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
76.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
76.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
77.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Latreal Jones for 11 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
75.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
75.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
77.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
73.7%
Briggs Bourgeois 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 6:0779% → 85%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
79.1%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+8
78.9%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
79.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-5
83.2%
DOEGE, Jarret pass to the right complete for 3 yards to VIDAL, Kimani caught at the TRO16 and advanced to the TRO19 (STANLEY, Jay), clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, TRO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TRO16 to the TRO11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+13
83.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 13 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
83.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Micheal Caraway Jr.) to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.7%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-10
85.1%
DOEGE, Jarret pass to the left complete for 22 yards to ROSS, Devonte caught at the USM35 and advanced to the USM35 (SHORTS, Malik). PENALTY TRO Holding on BUTLER, Deandre enforced 10 yards from the TRO43 to the TRO33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+10
82.2%
Jarret Doege run for 10 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+7
84.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 51 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 7 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.4%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0088% → 87%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
87.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 20 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
87.6%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
87.6%
Jarret Doege run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
86.7%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
87.0%
Brooks Buce 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:2112% → 11%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-8
89.0%
Zach Wilcke sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
96.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:594% → 3%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
96.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
96.3%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Shakel Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-15
96.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness on BARNES, Kyron enforced (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 28
OWN 18
0
96.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:4797% → 98%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
97.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
97.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-4
97.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
17 plays · 66 yds · 4:022% → 2%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.9%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
97.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
97.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 16 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+10
97.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Latreal Jones for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
97.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chandler Pittman) to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
97.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Janari Dean for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
97.7%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
97.8%
TROY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Carlton Martial) to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
97.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.0%
Zach Wilcke run for 9 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
97.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Janari Dean for 1 yd to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
97.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Janari Dean for 9 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
97.6%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:23
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q4 8:48
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 3:52
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com