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TROY

Troy 34 at Western Kentucky 27

WKU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:43 · Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense−10.2Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:55: DK Billingsley run for 21 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +4.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:57: Brayden Narveson 43 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:27: Brayden Narveson 47 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:14: Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +6.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:20: Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — TROY win probability +5.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:51TROY 4th & 7 at WKU 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04TROY 4th & 10 at WKU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:11TROY 4th & 12 at WKU 38, up 5
    Close callWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:09WKU 4th & 10 at TROY 40, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    58.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:46TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:57WKU 4th & 4 at TROY 25, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:24WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:10TROY 4th & 24 at TROY 3, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−8.3
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:27WKU 4th & 21 at TROY 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−5.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:43TROY 4th & 9 at WKU 33, up 5
    Close callWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54WKU 4th & 1 at TROY 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.5%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:56WKU 4th & 2 at TROY 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−5.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:14WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 24, down 5
    Numbers favored punt by 3.4 ptsWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:56TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 44, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:58WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:55TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0264% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Austin Reed for 8 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
64.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 3 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.0%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+33
64.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 33 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
64.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 18 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
64.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for 13 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:4735% → 36%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
64.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 7 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+10
64.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
64.3%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
64.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
64.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+14
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
64.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
64.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-1
64.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Juwuan Jones and Mike Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 18Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
64.4%
Brooks Buce 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2564% → 65%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
64.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Austin Reed for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
64.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
64.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
63.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 13 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 6 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
64.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
64.6%
Austin Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
64.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 48 yds, downed at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 3:4435% → 41%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
65.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 20 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
64.7%
Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
64.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.2%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+25
64.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 25 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
63.4%
DK Billingsley run for 12 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
59.3%
DK Billingsley run for 21 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4061% → 59%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
61.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
59.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joshua Simon for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-15
59.1%
Austin Reed pass intercepted for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Will Choloh) to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0442% → 41%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
57.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
57.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-5
58.2%
TROY Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
58.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
59.5%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0259% → 58%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
59.0%
CORLEY, Malachi rush to the left for no gain to the WKU27 (SOLOMON, Javon;SHOWERS, Antonio). PENALTY WKU Illegal Block in the Back enforced 10 yards from the WKU27 to the WKU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+8
58.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 8 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+15
58.8%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Craig Slocum Jr.) to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
59.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 20 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
60.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 6 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-6
61.7%
Austin Reed sacked by Richard Jibunor and Will Choloh for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-7
57.7%
Austin Reed sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2344% → 42%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
50
0
55.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 7
50
-7
55.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Derrick Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
57.7%
Mike Rivers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:4957% → 54%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
57.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
57.1%
REED, Austin pass to the right complete for 13 yards to DAVIS, Daewood caught at the WKU26 and advanced to the WKU26 (STEWARD, Reddy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY WKU Holding TRO Roughing the Passer , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
57.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for no gain to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+7
56.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 7 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
57.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
58.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
58.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 3
50
+8
59.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
59.6%
Austin Reed sacked by Shakel Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
59.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
59.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
60.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
60.7%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
59.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
54.4%
Brayden Narveson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3450% → 48%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
50.4%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
50.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
51.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
52.4%
Mike Rivers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Lorenzo Hernandez at the WKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:0452% → 55%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
52.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
53.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 10 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
52.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
50
+16
53.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 16 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
55.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 34 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:0651% → 56%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
48.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
48.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Juwuan Jones and Aaron Key for 0 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+29
47.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 29 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
44.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 13 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
43.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+33
43.9%
Brooks Buce 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2052% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
47.2%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
46.0%
DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
45.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
45.6%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+30
45.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 30 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
44.4%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the WKent 7Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.7%
Tez Johnson pass complete to Gunnar Watson for 7 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1248% → 46%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
48.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
48.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 7 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
48.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+12
48.3%
Austin Reed run for 12 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
50.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 3 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
50.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
49.5%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
46.3%
Tom Ellard punt for 49 yds, downed at the Troy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · -3 yds · 3:1454% → 50%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
45.6%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
45.2%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+3
46.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
44.9%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-10
44.3%
BILLINGSLEY, DK rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the TRO30 (STOUT, Upton). PENALTY TRO Holding on OLLENDIECK, Clayton enforced 10 yards from the TRO23 to the TRO13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 14
OWN 13
-5
45.5%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 8Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 19
OWN 8
0
45.9%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 26
OWN 1
+2
47.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 24
OWN 3
0
46.6%
Mike Rivers punt for 43 yds, downed at the Troy 46Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
49.9%
TROY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (RaJae' Johnson) to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4352% → 42%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
51.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-1
51.6%
Malachi Corley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
49.5%
Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
51.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 14
OPP 22
-7
50.7%
Austin Reed sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 21
OPP 29
0
46.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+47
41.8%
Brayden Narveson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3359% → 66%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
40.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
38.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Derrick Smith) to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
36.0%
Demontrez Brown run for 1 yd to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
35.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+18
37.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
33.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
33.9%
DOEGE, Jarret pass to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the WKU0. PENALTY WKU Roughing the Passer on STOUT, Upton TRO Intentional Grounding on DOEGE, Jarret , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
32.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jabre Barber for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 16Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
33.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing the Passer ( Yards) declined, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:5843% → 44%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Mark Goode) to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
41.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 10 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
41.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 12 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
44.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
42.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
44.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
47.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
47.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
43.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:4270% → 78%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
29.9%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
29.9%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
29.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+16
28.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
28.2%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
28.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 8 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+6
29.0%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
28.1%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the WKent 10Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
21.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5436% → 36%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
36.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
33.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
31.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Gunner Britton for 12 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
37.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 3 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+55
39.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 55 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
44.9%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 9 fumbled, recovered by WKent Kye RobichauxSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
42.0%
REED, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Daewood thrown to the TRO0. PENALTY Before the snap, WKU False Start on MURPHY, Vincent enforced 5 yards from the TRO4 to the TRO9. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
36.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2480% → 91%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
20.0%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
14.2%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
11.1%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
11.6%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
9.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Hall at the WKent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:5521% → 26%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
21.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 3 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+9
20.9%
Austin Reed run for 9 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
21.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+4
26.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+12
27.5%
Austin Reed run for 12 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
31.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
25.6%
Austin Reed sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:14
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-6.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-6.1
TD · Q4 4:20
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com