TROY
Troy 21 at Buffalo 17
BUF2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey play
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BUF · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q1 15:00
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete
40.5%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 6 yds to the BUF 31
40.5%
0.0
Q1 14:27
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 10 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST down
40.8%
+0.3
Q1 13:51
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 40
41.6%
+0.9
Q1 13:17
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the BUF 48
41.6%
0.0
Q1 12:46
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 49
41.4%
-0.2
Q1 12:00
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds
41.1%
-0.3
Q1 15:00
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
37.8%
-15.8
TROY · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q1 11:57
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 14
37.2%
-3.9
Q1 11:40
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Red Murdock for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 9 Tucker Kilcrease fumbled, recovered by TROY Tae Meadows , return for 0 yards
37.2%
0.0
Q1 10:41
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for no gain to the TROY 9
37.2%
0.0
Q1 9:56
Evan Crenshaw punt for 62 yds
37.2%
0.0
BUF · Drive 3TD · 7 plays · 71 yds
Q1 9:56
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 39 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST down
40.8%
+3.6
Q1 9:24
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 16 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST down
43.3%
+2.5
Q1 9:07
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the TROY 16
43.3%
0.0
Q1 8:45
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the TROY 11
42.8%
-0.5
Q1 8:14
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST down
42.7%
-0.2
Q1 7:15
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 1
42.9%
+0.2
Q1 6:31
James McNeil Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
56.0%
+13.1
TROY · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q1 6:28
Jack Howes kickoff for 34 yds , Dylan Mann return for 3 yds to the TROY 34
54.9%
-1.2
Q1 6:23
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 38
53.5%
-1.4
Q1 5:56
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Junior Poyser for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 35
52.9%
-0.6
Q1 5:20
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Kobe Stewart and Devin Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 31
53.5%
+0.6
Q1 4:43
Evan Crenshaw punt for 49 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 20
53.5%
0.0
BUF · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 20 yds
Q1 4:32
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 15
54.9%
+1.4
Q1 4:32
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Messiah Burch for 2 yds to the BUF 17
54.9%
0.0
Q1 3:58
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
54.8%
-0.1
Q1 3:47
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 16 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST down
54.8%
0.0
Q1 3:03
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 5 yds to the BUF 38
54.8%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 40
55.3%
+0.5
Q1 2:03
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete
54.7%
-0.6
Q1 1:44
Dylan Drennan punt for 37 yds
54.1%
-0.7
TROY · Drive 6PUNT · 11 plays · 19 yds
Q1 1:34
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 25
53.6%
-0.5
Q1 1:01
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 29
53.6%
0.0
Q1 0:28
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST down
53.6%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the TROY 41
53.5%
+15.7
Q2 14:41
Jordan Lovett run for 8 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down
54.7%
+1.2
Q2 14:11
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete
54.2%
-0.5
Q2 13:42
Troy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tae Meadows) to the TROY 34
54.2%
0.0
Q2 13:39
Tray Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 41
55.6%
+1.4
Q2 13:23
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 6 yds to the TROY 47
54.7%
-0.9
Q2 12:48
Troy Penalty, false start (Colton Walls) to the TROY 42
54.5%
-0.2
Q2 12:35
Evan Crenshaw punt for 54 yds
55.0%
+0.5
BUF · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q2 12:19
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 6
56.4%
+1.3
Q2 11:52
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 9
58.3%
+1.9
Q2 11:04
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance Morrow
58.5%
+0.2
Q2 10:46
Dylan Drennan punt for 46 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 2 yds to the TROY 47
57.8%
-0.7
TROY · Drive 8FUMBLE · 10 plays · 26 yds
Q2 10:36
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 49
54.3%
-3.6
Q2 10:03
Mojo Dortch run for 9 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST down
54.3%
0.0
Q2 9:36
Ui Ale pass complete to Rara Thomas for 14 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST down
53.3%
-0.9
Q2 9:05
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the BUF 23
53.3%
0.0
Q2 8:29
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the BUF 20
53.3%
0.0
Q2 7:52
Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST down
54.1%
+0.8
Q2 7:15
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 12
54.1%
0.0
Q2 6:40
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Keontez Bradley
54.1%
0.0
Q2 6:25
Ui Ale pass complete to DJ Epps for no gain to the BUF 12 Troy Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Roman Mothershed) to the BUF 27
54.1%
0.0
Q2 6:05
Ui Ale pass complete to Tray Taylor for 9 yds Ui Ale fumbled, recovered by BUF Red Murdock
54.1%
0.0
BUF · Drive 9PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q2 5:54
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 17
59.6%
+5.5
Q2 5:23
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
59.6%
0.0
Q2 5:23
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
59.6%
0.0
Q2 5:17
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for no gain to the TROY 38
59.0%
-0.6
TROY · Drive 10PUNT · 6 plays · 11 yds
Q2 5:08
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the TROY 43
56.0%
-3.0
Q2 4:44
Tucker Kilcrease run for 8 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST down
55.7%
-0.3
Q2 4:08
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Jarris Williams
54.9%
-0.8
Q2 3:53
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 49
54.9%
0.0
Q2 3:25
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton Higgins
55.2%
+0.3
Q2 3:15
Evan Crenshaw punt for 43 yds Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Morgan) to the BUF 4
55.5%
+0.3
BUF · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q2 3:09
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 3
59.6%
+4.1
Q2 2:27
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 3 Buffalo Penalty, illegal formation (Yards) to the BUF 2
59.9%
+0.2
Q2 2:13
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 6
59.9%
0.0
Q2 2:10
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 3
59.8%
-0.1
Q2 2:00
Dylan Drennan punt for 48 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 9 yds to the BUF 45
59.1%
-0.6
TROY · Drive 12END OF HALF · 9 plays · 19 yds
Q2 1:49
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara Thomas
54.7%
-4.4
Q2 1:45
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Tray Taylor, broken up by Marquis Cooper
54.7%
0.0
Q2 1:41
Ui Ale run for 8 yds to the BUF 37
54.7%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST down
55.1%
+0.4
Q2 1:16
Ui Ale sacked by Devin Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 39
54.4%
-0.8
Q2 0:55
Ui Ale pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 11 yds to the BUF 28
54.4%
0.0
Q2 0:36
Ui Ale pass complete to Rara Thomas for 6 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST down
54.1%
-0.3
Q2 0:32
Ui Ale sacked by Miles Greer for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 26
54.1%
0.0
Q2 0:12
Ui Ale sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 35
53.6%
-0.5
TROY · Drive 13DOWNS · 8 plays · 28 yds
Q3 15:00
Jack Howes kickoff for 61 yds , Peyton Higgins return for 7 yds to the TROY 25 , DJ Epps return for 14 yds to the TROY 25
61.2%
+7.6
Q3 14:44
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the TROY 25
56.0%
-5.2
Q3 14:10
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TROY 30
56.0%
0.0
Q3 13:53
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Solomon Brown) to the TROY 45 for a 1ST down
56.0%
0.0
Q3 13:31
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the TROY 48
54.1%
-1.9
Q3 13:09
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the BUF 48
53.9%
-0.1
Q3 12:34
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 49
53.7%
-0.3
Q3 12:01
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 47
54.0%
+0.3
BUF · Drive 14TD · 7 plays · 53 yds
Q3 11:53
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the TROY 49
63.5%
+9.5
Q3 11:31
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 8 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down
63.5%
0.0
Q3 11:06
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 42 Al-Jay Henderson fumbled, recovered by BUF Al-Jay Henderson
64.0%
+0.5
Q3 10:21
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the TROY 40
64.0%
0.0
Q3 9:46
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the TROY 37
64.7%
+0.7
Q3 9:22
Troy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (David Daniel-Sisavanh) to the TROY 22 for a 1ST down
64.4%
-0.3
Q3 9:12
Al-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
82.9%
+18.5
TROY · Drive 15INT · 6 plays · 46 yds
Q3 9:12
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds , DJ Epps return for 25 yds to the TROY 40 Troy Penalty, Offensive holding (Trent Henry) to the TROY 15
82.4%
-0.5
Q3 9:05
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 14
74.7%
-7.7
Q3 8:37
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 3 yds to the TROY 17
75.0%
+0.3
Q3 8:04
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Rara Thomas for 41 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST down
75.6%
+0.6
Q3 7:13
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the BUF 39
74.9%
-0.7
Q3 6:45
Jalen McNair return for no gain to the BUF 28
73.4%
-1.5
BUF · Drive 16FG · 15 plays · 51 yds
Q3 6:24
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 23
80.6%
+7.2
Q3 6:24
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 21
80.6%
0.0
Q3 5:54
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 5 yds to the BUF 26
80.6%
0.0
Q3 5:18
Lamar Sperling run for 14 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST down
82.3%
+1.7
Q3 4:51
Lamar Sperling run for 13 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down
83.9%
+1.5
Q3 4:23
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the TROY 44
83.8%
-0.1
Q3 3:53
Messiah Burch run for 6 yds to the TROY 38
83.8%
0.0
Q3 3:01
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST down
83.8%
0.0
Q3 2:24
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the TROY 32
85.6%
+1.8
Q3 1:55
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 30
85.6%
0.0
Q3 1:20
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST down
86.7%
+1.2
Q3 0:57
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor Snow
86.7%
0.0
Q3 0:46
Lamar Sperling run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24
86.7%
0.0
Q3 0:23
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the TROY 21
86.7%
0.0
Q4 14:56
Jack Howes 39 yd FG GOOD
89.2%
+2.5
TROY · Drive 17TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:56
Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.9%
-0.3
Q4 14:56
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 14 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down
78.9%
-10.0
Q4 14:28
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 9 yds to the TROY 48
78.6%
-0.3
Q4 14:09
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor
78.6%
0.0
Q4 13:45
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 1 yd to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down
79.5%
+0.9
Q4 13:31
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman Mothershed
78.6%
-0.9
Q4 13:31
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the BUF 44
78.6%
0.0
Q4 13:05
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara Thomas
78.3%
-0.4
Q4 12:59
Ui Ale pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 14 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down
78.3%
0.0
Q4 12:33
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Roman Mothershed
79.3%
+1.1
Q4 12:33
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 4 yds to the BUF 26
79.3%
0.0
Q4 11:56
Tucker Kilcrease run for 13 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST down
80.2%
+0.9
Q4 11:10
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the BUF 6
78.7%
-1.5
Q4 10:41
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Charles McCartherens
78.7%
0.0
Q4 10:23
Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
71.1%
-7.6
BUF · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q4 10:23
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 62 yds , Patrick Clacks III return for 22 yds to the BUF 25
72.7%
+1.6
Q4 10:16
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27
79.1%
+6.4
Q4 9:57
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 29
79.6%
+0.5
Q4 9:05
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 30
82.5%
+2.9
Q4 8:34
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 yds
84.4%
+1.9
TROY · Drive 19TD · 7 plays · 66 yds
Q4 8:19
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Charles McCartherens
75.0%
-9.4
Q4 8:13
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TROY 39
75.0%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 41
74.9%
-0.1
Q4 7:21
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
76.2%
+1.3
Q4 6:56
Tucker Kilcrease run for 11 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down
75.7%
-0.5
Q4 6:29
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 29 yds to the BUF 10 for a 1ST down
77.4%
+1.8
Q4 5:45
Rara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
51.6%
-25.9
BUF · Drive 20PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q4 5:45
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
54.6%
+3.0
Q4 5:45
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Marcus Velez
58.0%
+3.4
Q4 5:40
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Nik McMillan
58.0%
0.0
Q4 5:34
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III
58.0%
0.0
Q4 5:21
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 5 yds to the TROY 38
59.5%
+1.5
TROY · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q4 5:21
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 40
54.0%
-5.5
Q4 4:59
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 37
53.5%
-0.5
Q4 4:31
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman Mothershed
54.1%
+0.6
Q4 4:07
Evan Crenshaw punt for 53 yds
54.1%
0.0
BUF · Drive 22PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 4:07
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 13
61.6%
+7.4
Q4 3:18
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 16
62.6%
+1.0
Q4 2:45
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Chance Morrow
68.5%
+5.9
Q4 2:33
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
68.6%
+0.1
TROY · Drive 23TD · 9 plays · 50 yds
Q4 2:33
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the BUF 49
57.3%
-11.3
Q4 2:11
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 8 yds to the BUF 41
58.7%
+1.4
Q4 2:00
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down
58.0%
-0.7
Q4 1:51
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 33
57.6%
-0.4
Q4 1:37
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara Thomas
57.7%
+0.1
Q4 1:30
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the BUF 26 for a 1ST down
57.7%
0.0
Q4 1:25
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Mojo Dortch, broken up by Keontez Bradley
57.1%
-0.6
Q4 1:16
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 20
58.7%
+1.6
Q4 0:45
Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
10.5%
-48.2
BUF · Drive 24DOWNS · 7 plays · 46 yds
Q4 0:45
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10.7%
+0.2
Q4 0:45
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Chance Morrow for 20 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST down
15.6%
+5.0
Q4 0:35
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST down
15.6%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Kaleno Levine
16.3%
+0.6
Q4 0:17
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III
16.3%
0.0
Q4 0:13
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 9 yds to the TROY 29
16.3%
0.0
Q4 0:08
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Chance Morrow, broken up by Joe Lott
18.6%
+2.3
TROY · Drive 25Uncategorized · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 0:03
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 29
10.8%
-7.8
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
-48.2
TD · Q4 5:45
Rara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
-25.9
TD · Q3 9:12
Al-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
+18.5