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TROY

Troy 48 at Arkansas State 19

ARST
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-23.3ARST 31.1%Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point PassConversion Failed)AWAY 20 - HOME 19 · Q4 14:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:55 · Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−8.8Home team on offense−9.5Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:24: James Blackman run for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +12.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:49: Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +12.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:31: Reed Tyler 1 Yd pass from AJ Mayer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARST win probability +17.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TROY win probability +23.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: Reddy Steward 67 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick) — TROY win probability +24.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:20ARST 4th & 3 at TROY 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:30ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 31, up 3
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:30TROY 4th & 1 at ARST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:02TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:02ARST 4th & 1 at TROY 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:37ARST 4th & 4 at TROY 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:14TROY 4th & 23 at TROY 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:19ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:41ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:57TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:46ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:46TROY 4th & 1 at ARST 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−6.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:45ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:31ARST 4th & 9 at TROY 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:02TROY 4th & 1 at ARST 3, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 0:06TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:24ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:49TROY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:31ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55TROY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:53TROY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:13TROY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:38TROY Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:02TROY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1981% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
19.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
19.9%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2120% → 21%
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.1%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the Troy 2Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
20.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
20.9%
Dominic Zvada 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4079% → 78%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
20.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
20.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
20.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
20.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 1 yd Michael Vice fumbled, recovered by TroySimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
20.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+8
22.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1022% → 24%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
22.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
22.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+8
22.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 8 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
22.4%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
22.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+4
22.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+7
23.9%
William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Orlando Lacey returns for 7 yds to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:2476% → 76%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
24.4%
DK Billingsley run for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
24.0%
Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
23.7%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
23.8%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
23.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
23.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
23.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
24.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
23.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
23.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
23.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (John Mincey) to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.5%
run for no gain to the ArkSt 1 fumbled, recovered by Troy Gunnar WatsonSimilar
Q1 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5025% → 25%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
25.0%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 17 fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James BlackmanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+11
24.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 11 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
24.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1475% → 74%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
25.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ethan Hassler) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
24.6%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
24.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
24.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
26.3%
Mike Rivers punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2527% → 31%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
26.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
27.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
27.6%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 36 fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James BlackmanSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+5
26.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+12
26.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
27.1%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
28.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 15 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
28.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 9 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+16
28.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 16 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
31.2%
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 4:1671% → 68%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
28.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
27.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
27.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
28.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
50
0
27.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
50
+2
27.2%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-5
27.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jaden Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 13
OWN 47
-5
29.8%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Dell Pettus) to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 18
OWN 42
-5
30.0%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Jarris Williams) to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 23
OWN 37
0
32.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5532% → 31%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
32.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
31.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-3
30.9%
William Przystup punt for 37 yds , Tez Johnson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked for 0 yards to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:4937% → 49%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
37.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.2%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+30
49.3%
James Blackman run for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
44.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1548% → 48%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.2%
James Blackman run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
48.0%
James Blackman sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+13
46.7%
Marcel Murray run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+19
47.8%
William Przystup punt for 58 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 19 yds to the Troy 45 TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (Javon Solomon) to the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4453% → 48%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
47.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
47.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-6
48.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+15
52.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 45 yds , Reagan Ealy returns for 15 yds to the Troy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1155% → 51%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
54.6%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
51.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
51.2%
William Przystup punt for 48 yds, downed at the Troy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:5749% → 68%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
51.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
50.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
49.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
47.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
48.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
49.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+23
48.6%
DK Billingsley run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
44.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
32.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:1139% → 62%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
39.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
43.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
40.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+33
43.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 33 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
45.4%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
45.4%
James Blackman run for 5 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.4%
Reed Tyler 1 Yd pass from AJ Mayer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3645% → 69%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
54.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
54.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 56 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
31.1%
Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20INT TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:5440% → 21%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
39.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
39.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 14 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
44.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 21 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-67
21.4%
Reddy Steward 67 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0818% → 15%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.5%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
17.8%
James Blackman sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
16.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
15.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Taylon Doss) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
15.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Orlando Lacey returns for 17 yds to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:3287% → 96%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
12.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 24 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
11.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
11.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
11.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
4.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:425% → 5%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
5.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 21 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
6.2%
James Blackman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
5.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
6.1%
James Blackman run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 9
OPP 38
-15
5.0%
James Blackman sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 15 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:5397% → 99%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
3.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+39
0.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 39 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 3:2399% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
0.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
0.7%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
0.7%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
0.7%
Jarris Williams run for no gain to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
0.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 11
-2
0.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:53
Reddy Steward 67 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)
-24.2
TD · Q4 14:55
Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-23.3
TD · Q3 1:31
Reed Tyler 1 Yd pass from AJ Mayer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com