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TROY

Troy 10 at Ole Miss 28

MISS
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:34 · Mike Rivers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense+16.0Score differential+10.7Garbage-time factor+2.6Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:51: Jonathan Mingo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +2.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:38: Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Brooks Buce 31 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +3.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:42: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:17: Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:44TROY 4th & 6 at MISS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:02MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:18TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:34TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:00TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:30MISS 4th & 6 at TROY 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:09TROY 4th & 7 at MISS 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:58TROY 4th & 6 at MISS 26, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:45MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 42, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:17TROY 4th & 3 at MISS 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:44MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 46, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:01TROY 4th & 9 at MISS 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:25MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:51MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:38MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:42MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:17TROY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:118% → 9%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
91.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
91.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 7 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 7
50
-1
90.9%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+2
90.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
90.6%
Mike Rivers punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:3891% → 90%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.6%
Jaylon Robinson run for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
90.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
90.5%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
90.5%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
90.4%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
90.3%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
90.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1710% → 11%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
89.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
89.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+13
89.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
89.1%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez Johnson TROY Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+3
89.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
88.9%
Mike Rivers punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:1089% → 90%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
88.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
88.5%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+16
88.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
88.4%
Zach Evans run for 46 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
89.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
88.9%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
88.8%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
88.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds Michael Trigg fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:0810% → 10%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
89.2%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
89.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
89.5%
Tez Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-2
89.7%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
89.8%
Mike Rivers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:4090% → 93%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
89.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 22 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
89.9%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
89.9%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+14
89.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
90.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
90.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+10
89.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
89.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (2 Yards) to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Jonathan Mingo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
91.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.7%
Mike Rivers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 3:3792% → 96%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
92.3%
Zach Evans run for 17 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
92.3%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
92.6%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 4
50
-5
92.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
92.6%
JJ Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+36
91.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 36 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
92.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
92.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+8
92.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
92.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 1 yd to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:565% → 4%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
95.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
95.4%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
95.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Mike Rivers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0697% → 96%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.5%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:034% → 8%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+3
96.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+6
96.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
95.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
95.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
95.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
95.8%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
95.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 5 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+31
92.3%
Brooks Buce 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1394% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.7%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
93.7%
Zach Evans run for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
95.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 21 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
95.6%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+6
95.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+1
95.5%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+8
95.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 8 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
95.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+7
95.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
96.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for no gain to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
96.0%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:292% → 2%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 30 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
98.3%
Gunnar Watson run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
98.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-5
98.4%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
98.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 18 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
99.0%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Troy 33 Zach Evans fumbled, recovered by Troy Craig Slocum Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
98.7%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 10 yds to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0499% → 99%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.1%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted, touchback. Markeis Colvin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:221% → 1%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
98.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
98.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+14
98.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 14 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
98.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 7 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+9
98.9%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
98.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+6
99.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 26
-12
99.1%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 38 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:0199% → 100%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to JJ Henry for 11 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.5%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to JJ HenrySimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-6
99.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-6 Yards) to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 12
OWN 47
-5
99.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Swanson at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
99.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 12 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+28
99.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 28 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
99.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
99.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-7
99.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+13
99.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 11 yds Kimani Vidal fumbled, recovered by Miss Isheem Young , return for 13 yds to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy AJ PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
12 plays · 39 yds · 5:011% → 3%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 10 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-5
99.1%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
99.3%
Jamontez Woods run for 6 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 7 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 9 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
99.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
99.5%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.4%
Will Choloh run for 1 yd to the Miss 3Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.5%
Jamontez Woods run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2698% → 99%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
98.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+1
98.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
98.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 13 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+4
98.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:392% → 2%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
98.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 15 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
98.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+22
98.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 22 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
98.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-5
98.3%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 22
50
+2
98.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+11
98.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 11 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
98.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 15 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
99.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:38
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+3.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Brooks Buce 31 yd FG GOOD
-3.3
TD · Q2 11:51
Jonathan Mingo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com