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TROY

Troy 28 at App State 32

APP
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Mike Rivers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+27.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:22: Chase Brice pass complete to Anderson Castle for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +8.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Gunnar Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +10.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:35: Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +12.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:10: Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nick Ross) to the AppSt 0, (Zach Long KICK) — TROY win probability +36.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Christan Horn 53 Yd pass from Chase Brice — APP win probability +35.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:48TROY 4th & 2 at APP 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:29APP 4th & 10 at APP 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 26 at TROY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53TROY 4th & 26 at TROY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34APP 4th & 11 at APP 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:45TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:01APP 4th & 1 at APP 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:06TROY 4th & 15 at APP 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−3.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−11.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:29APP 4th & 2 at TROY 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−14.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:40APP 4th & 3 at TROY 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−3.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:00APP 4th & 3 at TROY 9, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.4 ptsWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%−3.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−17.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:13APP 4th & 2 at TROY 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−18.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−32.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00APP 4th & 10 at APP 47, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 4.3 ptsWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%−4.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:48APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:43TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:22APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:35APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:10TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:0585% → 85%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
84.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 11 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
84.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
84.6%
Dashaun Davis pass complete to Christian Wells for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5916% → 18%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
84.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Tyler Bird for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 12 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+12
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 9 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
84.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+4
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
84.5%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
83.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Tyler Bird for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
84.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 12 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
81.6%
DK Billingsley run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 4:2783% → 81%
Q1 8:56
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+7
82.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
82.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 14 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
82.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 7 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+7
82.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
81.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 9 yds · 9:0318% → 20%
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
82.5%
DK Billingsley run for 10 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
82.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by KeSean Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+1
82.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
81.0%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
80.8%
DK Billingsley run for 10 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
80.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by KeSean Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+1
81.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 44
-9
79.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 35
0
80.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 26
OWN 35
0
80.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 30 yds · 5:5780% → 78%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
80.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+14
80.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 14 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
80.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
81.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
81.2%
Chase Brice run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-5
80.3%
PENALTY APP False Start (Tucker,Milan) 5 yards from APP48 to APP43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
79.1%
Clayton Howell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 19Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
78.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+14
78.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 14 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
78.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
79.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
79.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-5
78.4%
PENALTY APP False Start (Tucker,Milan) 5 yards from APP48 to APP43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:5121% → 32%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
78.6%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
78.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
78.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to RaJae' Johnson for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steven Jones Jr.) to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
77.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 25 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+22
76.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 22 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
77.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
75.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 25 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Gunnar Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
31 plays · 75 yds · 7:3471% → 76%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
71.5%
Chase Brice sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
70.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
71.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 15 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
72.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+13
72.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
73.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 8 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
73.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
73.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
73.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-10
73.9%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Peoples,Camerun rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TRO05 (Pettus,Dell; McDonald,Jayden) PENALTY APP Holding (Everett,Troy) 10 yards from TRO09 to TRO19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
73.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
71.3%
Chase Brice sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
70.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
70.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 15 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
72.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
72.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+13
72.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
73.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 8 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
68.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
66.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
68.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-10
68.0%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Peoples,Camerun rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TRO05 (Pettus,Dell; McDonald,Jayden) PENALTY APP Holding (Everett,Troy) 10 yards from TRO09 to TRO19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
67.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
67.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
76.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Anderson Castle for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
25 plays · 75 yds · 8:5626% → 44%
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.9%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Gunnar pass incomplete short left to Rogers,Marcus PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Lawson Jr.,Dexter) 1 yard from APP02 to APP01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.9%
Will Choloh run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
75.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
74.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
74.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
73.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
70.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+36
69.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 36 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the AppSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.8%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Gunnar pass incomplete short left to Rogers,Marcus PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Lawson Jr.,Dexter) 1 yard from APP02 to APP01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.1%
Will Choloh run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2560% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
62.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
61.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+22
62.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 22 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
65.0%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
65.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
63.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
75.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 2:3032% → 33%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
67.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
66.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
67.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-5
68.4%
PENALTY TRO False Start (Watson,Gunnar) 5 yards from TRO47 to TRO42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
69.3%
Mike Rivers punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
66.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-5
66.9%
PENALTY TRO False Start (Watson,Gunnar) 5 yards from TRO47 to TRO42. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4471% → 68%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
70.9%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
70.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
69.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
70.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
69.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
68.1%
Clayton Howell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:5037% → 33%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
63.2%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
64.6%
(08:01) Shotgun Watson,Gunnar sacked for loss of 10 yards to the APP20 (McLeod,Jalen) PENALTY APP Face Mask (McLeod,Jalen) 5 yards from APP10 to APP05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
63.2%
(08:01) Shotgun Vidal,Kimani rush left for 5 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:56 PENALTY TRO Holding (Ollendieck,Clayton) 10 yards from APP05 to APP15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
64.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 48 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
62.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
62.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
64.0%
(08:01) Shotgun Watson,Gunnar sacked for loss of 10 yards to the APP20 (McLeod,Jalen) PENALTY APP Face Mask (McLeod,Jalen) 5 yards from APP10 to APP05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
62.5%
(08:01) Shotgun Vidal,Kimani rush left for 5 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:01 PENALTY TRO Holding (Ollendieck,Clayton) 10 yards from APP05 to APP15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
62.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Marcus RogersSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
63.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
66.9%
Brooks Buce 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 8:2771% → 74%
Q3 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
70.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 8 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
73.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 42 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
74.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+6
74.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
68.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
68.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 11 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
69.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
69.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
69.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 8 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
71.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 42 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
73.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+6
72.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+7
72.4%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
74.0%
Michael Hughes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
20 plays · 79 yds · 6:2428% → 66%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Michael ViceSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
72.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
72.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.2%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
69.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+12
71.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
66.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 16 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
66.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
66.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
69.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nick Ross) to the AppSt 0, (Zach Long KICK)Similar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
35.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
35.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
32.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 16 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
33.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16DOWNS
20 plays · 73 yds · 8:4050% → 34%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+29
47.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 29 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
53.4%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
53.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Camerun PeoplesSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
52.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Camerun PeoplesSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
50.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+7
47.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 7 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
53.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 6 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
52.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
48.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
47.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
44.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+4
40.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 4 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
44.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.0%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
37.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 5 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
34.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17SF
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1587% → 92%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
12.7%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
12.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+5
13.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+5
8.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:1164% → 95%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
64.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
63.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
60.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+53
95.4%
Christan Horn 53 Yd pass from Chase Brice Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:10
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nick Ross) to the AppSt 0, (Zach Long KICK)
-36.1
TD · Q4 0:00
Christan Horn 53 Yd pass from Chase Brice
+35.4
TD · Q3 11:35
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com