Memphis

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2184th
  Defense+0.1338th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.9%71st
  Defense41.6%52nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3383rd
  Defense+1.3122nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2998th
  Defense+0.0172nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1545th
  Defense+0.2819th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.9%74th
  Defense46.9%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%69th
  Defense30.2%44th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3393rd
  Defense2.5791st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.2%45th
  Defense21.6%79th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%64th
  Defense17.4%78th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Memphis allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UTC
2. W
   GAST
3. W
   TROY
4. W
   ARK
5. W
   FAU
6. W
   TLSA
7. L
   UAB
8. W
   USF
9. W
   RICE
10. L
    TULN
11. L
    ECU
12. L
    NAVY
13. L
    NCSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Memphis.

Players, 2025

1. Brendon LewisQB437 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 30th of 231 QBs
   1.59WAR0.83 to 2.20
2. Cortez Braham Jr.WR77 plays · +0.223 pts/play · 19th of 451 WRs
   0.32WAR0.16 to 0.47
3. Greg Desrosiers Jr.RB114 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 76th of 365 RBs
   0.25WAR0.17 to 0.33
4. Sutton SmithRB107 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 100th of 365 RBs
   0.21WAR0.15 to 0.28
5. Jamari HawkinsWR41 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 153rd of 451 WRs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.19
6. Gianni SpeticPK16 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 82nd of 112 kickers
   0.06WAR0.00 to 0.11
7. Christian RossTE16 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 112th of 213 TEs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
8. Marcello BusseyWR30 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 353rd of 451 WRs
   0.03WAR−0.01 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Memphis's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  66966959th of 134Roster talent: 669, 59th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18318364th of 134Recruiting: 183, 64th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  12%12%120th of 132Returning production: 12%, 120th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +7.6+7.639th of 134SP+ rating: +7.6, 39th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Memphis's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at GASTQ4 6:09 4th & 2 at GAST 27, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.0 pts
2. at TROYQ4 14:00 4th & 4 at TROY 43, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. at TROYQ3 4:59 4th & 4 at TROY 44, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at FAUQ4 4:54 4th & 4 at FAU 7, up 12Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
5. at RICEQ3 12:58 4th & 2 at MEM 43, up 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. at ECUQ2 9:02 4th & 3 at MEM 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at TROYQ2 3:59 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at RICEQ2 0:00 4th & 3 at RICE 19, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

84th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Memphis's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UTC
2. W

   GAST
3. W

   TROY
4. W

   ARK
5. W

   FAU
6. W

   TLSA
7. L

   UAB
8. W

   USF
9. W

   RICE
10. L

    TULN
11. L

    ECU
12. L

    NAVY
13. L

    NCSU

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Memphis's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.06
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts−0.04
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.36

Game by game

• UTCW 45-10 vs UTC97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +4
• GASTW 38-16 at GAST84% → 93%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• TROYW 28-7 at TROY61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2
• ARKW 32-31 vs ARK27% → 92%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +38, Possession & field position −2
• FAUW 55-26 at FAU81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +24
• TLSAW 45-7 vs TLSA91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• UABL 24-31 at UAB93% → 4%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −89: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −3
• USFW 34-31 vs USF38% → 89%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +26, Possession & field position +3
• RICEW 38-14 at RICE83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• TULNL 32-38 vs TULN60% → 4%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• ECUL 27-31 at ECU38% → 11%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −2
• NAVYL 17-28 vs NAVY57% → 3%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• NCSUL 7-31 at NCSU31% → 0%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −32, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Memphis's side.

Closest call

MEM 36-26 ISU (2023) - Memphis dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.