TLSA
Tulsa 7 at Memphis 45
MEM2025 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey play
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TLSA · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 15:00
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
89.4%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 4 yds to the TLSA 21
87.8%
-1.7
Q1 14:38
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion Booker
87.3%
-0.5
Q1 14:29
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 10 yds to the TLSA 31
87.3%
0.0
Q1 13:55
Angus Davies punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 36 , Sutton Smith returns for no gain to the MEM 36
87.3%
0.0
MEM · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 64 yds
Q1 13:46
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 1 yd to the MEM 37
89.4%
+2.1
Q1 13:13
Brendon Lewis sacked by Ty Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 34
89.4%
0.0
Q1 12:36
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 21 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST down
89.3%
-0.1
Q1 12:03
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the TLSA 36
90.0%
+0.7
Q1 11:33
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
90.0%
0.0
Q1 10:56
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the TLSA 31
90.0%
0.0
Q1 10:26
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST down
90.0%
0.0
Q1 9:48
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 9 yds to the TLSA 16
90.0%
0.0
Q1 9:13
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST down
90.1%
0.0
Q1 8:37
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 7
89.8%
-0.2
Q1 8:00
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Matt Adcock for 7 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
94.3%
+4.4
TLSA · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q1 7:56
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 61 yds , Jacob Emmers return for 15 yds to the TLSA 19
94.0%
-0.3
Q1 7:39
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 2 yds to the TLSA 21
93.4%
-0.7
Q1 7:32
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 17
93.4%
0.0
Q1 6:59
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah Tease
93.2%
-0.2
Q1 6:52
Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 40
93.2%
0.0
MEM · Drive 4INT · 8 plays · 28 yds
Q1 6:48
Sutton Smith run for 6 yds to the MEM 46
94.0%
+0.8
Q1 6:13
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 49
93.3%
-0.7
Q1 5:33
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 49
93.3%
0.0
Q1 4:56
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST down
93.2%
-0.2
Q1 4:11
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 14 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
93.3%
+0.2
Q1 3:30
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 5 yds to the TLSA 30
93.3%
0.0
Q1 3:07
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 32
93.3%
0.0
Q1 2:20
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Elijah Green return for 38 yds to the MEM 34
93.1%
-0.2
TLSA · Drive 5MISSED FG · 7 plays · 18 yds
Q1 2:10
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for no gain to the MEM 34
91.2%
-1.9
Q1 1:53
Braylin Presley run for 6 yds to the MEM 28
91.2%
-0.1
Q1 1:13
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 11 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST down
91.2%
0.0
Q1 0:47
Kirk Francis run for 3 yds to the MEM 14
91.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 15
91.0%
-0.2
Q2 14:55
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 16
91.0%
0.0
Q2 14:19
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG MISSED
91.1%
+0.1
MEM · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 80 yds
Q2 14:09
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the MEM 24
92.2%
+1.1
Q2 13:40
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST down
92.2%
0.0
Q2 13:03
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 35
92.2%
0.0
Q2 12:24
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
92.2%
0.0
Q2 11:30
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 47 yds to the TLSA 3 for a 1ST down
92.6%
+0.4
Q2 11:14
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
98.4%
+5.8
TLSA · Drive 7TD · 11 plays · 80 yds
Q2 11:09
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds , Jacob Emmers return for 20 yds to the TLSA 20
98.4%
0.0
Q2 11:04
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 24
97.2%
-1.3
Q2 10:49
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 25
97.1%
0.0
Q2 10:16
Braylin Presley run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST down
97.1%
0.0
Q2 9:57
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 30
97.1%
0.0
Q2 9:21
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 23 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST down
97.1%
0.0
Q2 9:06
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion Steptoe
97.0%
-0.1
Q2 8:53
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 9 yds to the MEM 38
97.0%
0.0
Q2 8:39
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 40
96.9%
-0.1
Q2 8:00
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 6 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST down
97.0%
+0.1
Q2 7:46
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 34 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
90.7%
-6.2
MEM · Drive 8INT · 9 plays · 61 yds
Q2 7:46
Seth Morgan kickoff for 45 yds , Sutton Smith return for no gain to the MEM 5
91.1%
+0.3
Q2 7:37
Brendon Lewis run for 26 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST down
92.5%
+1.4
Q2 6:58
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 35
92.3%
-0.1
Q2 6:24
Brendon Lewis run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
91.6%
-0.7
Q2 5:28
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 8 yds to the TLSA 42 Greg Desrosiers Jr. fumbled, recovered by MEM Greg Desrosiers Jr.
92.0%
+0.3
Q2 5:09
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST down
92.0%
+0.1
Q2 4:25
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TLSA 38
92.0%
0.0
Q2 3:53
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the TLSA 34
91.9%
-0.2
Q2 3:15
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the TLSA 2
91.8%
-0.1
TLSA · Drive 9INT · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q2 3:11
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion Booker
90.5%
-1.3
Q2 3:06
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 3
90.5%
0.0
Q2 2:29
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Chris Bracy return for no gain to the TLSA 20
89.6%
-0.9
MEM · Drive 10TD · 3 plays · 20 yds
Q2 2:22
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the TLSA 14
91.0%
+1.4
Q2 2:04
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Tulsa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Seth Morgan) declined (Gianni Spetic KICK)
98.4%
+7.3
Q2 1:58
Timeout Memphis, clock 01:58
90.9%
-7.6
TLSA · Drive 11INT · 4 plays · 22 yds
Q2 1:58
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 64 yds , Jacob Emmers return for 1 yd to the TLSA 2 Jacob Emmers fumbled, recovered by TLSA Jacob Emmers
98.5%
+0.1
Q2 1:57
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 15 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST down
97.3%
+6.4
Q2 1:53
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TLSA 24
97.3%
0.0
Q2 1:45
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Kamari Wilson return for 15 yds to the TLSA 27
97.3%
0.0
MEM · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 27 yds
Q2 1:35
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26
98.5%
+1.2
Q2 1:35
Timeout Tulsa, clock 01:35
98.7%
+0.2
Q2 1:28
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 14 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST down
98.7%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 4
98.7%
0.0
Q2 1:16
Timeout Tulsa, clock 01:16
98.7%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TLSA 4
98.7%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Timeout Tulsa, clock 01:11
98.7%
0.0
Q2 1:07
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
99.7%
+0.9
TLSA · Drive 13PUNT · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q2 1:07
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.7%
0.0
Q2 1:04
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah Tease
98.9%
-0.7
Q2 0:59
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 15 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q2 0:52
Kirk Francis pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 20 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q2 0:46
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson
98.9%
0.0
Q2 0:40
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Jacob Emmers
99.0%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah Tease
99.0%
0.0
Q2 0:27
Angus Davies punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 8
98.9%
0.0
MEM · Drive 14END OF HALF · 1 play · 3 yds
Q2 0:00
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 11
99.7%
+0.7
MEM · Drive 15FG · 14 plays · 52 yds
Q3 14:57
Seth Morgan kickoff for 63 yds , Sutton Smith return for 14 yds to the MEM 16
98.9%
-0.7
Q3 14:53
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Cortez Braham Jr.
99.5%
+0.6
Q3 14:53
PENALTY MEM False Start (Ross,Christian) 5 yards from MEM16 to MEM11. NO PLAY.
99.5%
0.0
Q3 14:40
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 29 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 14:03
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 13:35
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TLSA 46
99.5%
0.0
Q3 12:57
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass complete short middle to Ross,Christian caught at TUL44, for 4 yards to the TUL42 (Coney,Ray) PENALTY MEM Holding (Adams,Chris) 10 yards from TUL46 to MEM44. NO PLAY.
99.6%
0.0
Q3 12:41
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the TLSA 48
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:48
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Anderson for 7 yds to the TLSA 41
99.5%
0.0
Q3 11:23
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 10:46
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the TLSA 32
99.5%
0.0
Q3 10:03
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete
99.5%
0.0
Q3 9:58
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson
99.5%
0.0
Q3 9:53
Gianni Spetic 50 yd FG GOOD
99.7%
+0.2
TLSA · Drive 16INT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 9:53
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.7%
0.0
Q3 9:47
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26
99.4%
-0.3
Q3 9:01
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 6 yds to the TLSA 32
99.4%
0.0
Q3 8:37
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Samson Israel return for no gain to the MEM 45
99.4%
0.0
MEM · Drive 17PUNT · 6 plays · 14 yds
Q3 8:30
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 49
99.7%
+0.3
Q3 7:50
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 21 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 7:10
CJ Smith run for no gain to the TLSA 30
99.7%
0.0
Q3 6:30
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the TLSA 43
99.8%
+0.1
Q3 5:54
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41
99.8%
0.0
Q3 5:20
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 8
99.8%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 18DOWNS · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q3 5:13
Dominic Richardson run for 16 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST down
99.6%
-0.3
Q3 4:56
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:36
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:17
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Grayson Tempest
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:12
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Ajay Allen
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:07
Angus Davies run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:07
Angus Davies run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 36
99.6%
0.0
MEM · Drive 19TD · 6 plays · 36 yds
Q3 3:56
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 12 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST down
99.8%
+0.2
Q3 3:26
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 22
99.8%
0.0
Q3 2:41
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 12 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q3 2:08
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 5
99.8%
0.0
Q3 1:24
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 2
99.8%
0.0
Q3 0:53
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
99.9%
+0.1
TLSA · Drive 20PUNT · 9 plays · 27 yds
Q3 0:53
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:48
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 32
99.7%
-0.2
Q3 0:11
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 8 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep right to Tease,Micah thrown to MEM25 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Denis,Jaidyn) 15 yards from TUL40 to MEM45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q4 14:49
Kirk Francis pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the MEM 45
99.7%
0.0
Q4 14:18
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 47
99.7%
0.0
Q4 13:32
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds to the MEM 43
99.7%
0.0
Q4 13:08
PENALTY TUL False Start (Duffel,Brody) 5 yards from MEM43 to MEM48. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:53
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds
99.7%
0.0
MEM · Drive 21PUNT · 9 plays · 26 yds
Q4 12:50
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 12:44
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the MEM 17
99.9%
0.0
Q4 12:04
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 11:18
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ger-Cari Caldwell for 3 yds to the MEM 24
99.9%
0.0
Q4 10:11
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:32
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 36
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:46
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brady Kluse
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:40
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brady Kluse
99.9%
0.0
Q4 8:33
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 20
99.9%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 22FUMBLE · 4 plays · 18 yds
Q4 8:22
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jewlyen Roberts for 5 yds to the TLSA 25
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 7:57
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:22
Zion Booker run for 10 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 6:47
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the TLSA 38 Ajay Allen fumbled, recovered by MEM Mond Cole
99.7%
0.0
MEM · Drive 23TD · 4 plays · 38 yds
Q4 6:39
Arrington Maiden run for 10 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST down
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 5:46
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TLSA 28
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:12
Arrington Maiden run for 18 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 4:50
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
99.9%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 24PUNT · 9 plays · 16 yds
Q4 4:45
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 60 yds , Braylin Presley return for 25 yds to the TLSA 30
99.9%
0.0
Q4 4:33
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 5 yds to the TLSA 35
99.8%
-0.1
Q4 3:59
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 38
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:18
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:34
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the TLSA 45 Kirk Francis fumbled, recovered by TLSA Kirk Francis
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:20
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Memphis, clock 02:00
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Ajay Allen
99.8%
0.0
Q4 1:43
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds
99.8%
0.0
MEM · Drive 25END OF GAME · 3 plays · -7 yds
Q4 1:31
B. Lewis takes a knee
99.9%
+0.1
Q4 0:49
B. Lewis takes a knee
99.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
B. Lewis takes a knee
99.9%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:58
Timeout Memphis, clock 01:58
-7.6
TD · Q2 2:04
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 14 yds for a TD Tulsa Penalty, Defensive Offside (Seth Morgan) declined (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+7.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:57
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 15 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST down
+6.4