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MEM

Memphis 28 at Troy 7

TROY
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:55 · Brendon Lewis pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense−2.7Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Pregame prior−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:02: B. Lewis sacked by D. Smith for -6 yds,B. Lewis fumbled, recovered by MEM T. Robbins,for a TD (S. Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:21: Timeout Troy, clock 08:21 — TROY win probability +4.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: Sutton Smith run for 50 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +23.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TROY win probability +6.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:49: Makari Bodiford run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 11 of 11MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:01TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:55MEM 4th & 7 at TROY 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:27MEM 4th & 17 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:27TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59MEM 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:13TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:43MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:51TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:59MEM 4th & 4 at TROY 44, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:48TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:00MEM 4th & 4 at TROY 43, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−2.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:11TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:31MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:52TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:52MEM 4th & 1 at TROY 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−2.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:34MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:02TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:21MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:49MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0861% → 61%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
39.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 6 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
39.6%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
39.7%
Makari Bodiford run for 3 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
39.8%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+41
40.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 41 yds to the TROY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.0%
Makari Bodiford run for 1 yd to the TROY 9Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
40.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Matt Adcock for 4 yds to the TROY 5Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.8%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2939% → 39%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Jordan LovettSimilar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.0%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
38.9%
(09:55) Shotgun Crowder,Goose pass complete short middle to Dortch,Mojo caught at TROY45, for 73 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:45 PENALTY TROY Illegal Formation 5 yards from TROY27 to TROY22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
38.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.7%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5661% → 62%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
39.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 30 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
38.2%
Sutton Smith run for 9 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
38.0%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
38.1%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+6
38.1%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
37.5%
Memphis Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ger-Cari Caldwell) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
37.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2038% → 37%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
37.9%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
37.4%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
37.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
36.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 8 , Sutton Smith returns for no gain to the MEM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4862% → 62%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
38.3%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the MEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
38.0%
Frank Peasant run for 11 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
37.6%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+24
37.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 24 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
36.4%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass complete short left to Smith,Sutton caught at TROY47, for 10 yards to the TROY33 (Carter,Rondell), out of bounds PENALTY MEM Holding (Ross,Christian) 10 yards from TROY43 to MEM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+4
36.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Frank Peasant for 4 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 24
OWN 43
0
37.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Bryce AndersonSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 24
OWN 43
+7
37.4%
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 17
50
0
37.7%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:0737% → 36%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
36.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 15 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.6%
(15:00) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete deep left to Mothershed,Roman thrown to MEM50 PENALTY MEM Holding (Cole,Mond) 10 yards from TROY25 to TROY35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
36.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 12 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
36.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
36.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
36.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 15
OWN 42
+8
35.7%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 18 , Sutton Smith returns for 8 yds to the MEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4663% → 56%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
37.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Sutton SmithSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
37.1%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 21Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+15
44.5%
B. Lewis sacked by D. Smith for -6 yds,B. Lewis fumbled, recovered by MEM T. Robbins,for a TD (S. Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3259% → 62%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
41.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 6 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
43.4%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+40
44.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 40 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
40.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
40.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
40.9%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Adams,Chris) 5 yards from TROY13 to TROY18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
38.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4943% → 41%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.5%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
41.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Trae SwartzSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
40.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
40.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2162% → 61%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
38.3%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
37.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sutton Smith for 5 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
38.0%
Makari Bodiford run for 4 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
37.8%
Makari Bodiford run for 1 yd to the MEM 47Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
37.9%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Adcock,Matt) 5 yards from MEM47 to MEM42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+8
39.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 6
50
0
37.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Bryce AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 6
50
0
39.1%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0041% → 41%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
41.4%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the TROY 12Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+2
41.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-9
40.5%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 5Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
41.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
50
+50
17.2%
Sutton Smith run for 50 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:3618% → 17%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.8%
Jordan Lovett run for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
17.8%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
18.5%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 19
OWN 30
0
19.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+4
19.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
17.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
16.3%
Sutton Smith run for 6 yds to the MEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3324% → 23%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
24.5%
(14:25) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete deep right to Higgins,Peyton thrown to MEM45 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Jordan,Jeremiah) 15 yards from TROY30 to TROY45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
25.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
23.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
23.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
23.0%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:1778% → 82%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
22.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 2 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+9
21.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 9 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
21.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
20.5%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
19.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sutton Smith for 2 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
18.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 9 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
16.7%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
16.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Ger-Cari CaldwellSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
16.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Cortez Braham Jr.Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
17.6%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4419% → 18%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
18.9%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
18.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
17.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+4
17.8%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 39 , Sutton Smith returns for 4 yds to the MEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4485% → 86%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
15.5%
Khyair Spain run for 7 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
14.5%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
50
-5
14.1%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Mitchell,Parker) 5 yards from MEM50 to MEM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
14.3%
Makari Bodiford run for 1 yd to the MEM 46Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
14.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+5
14.4%
(05:52) Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete deep right to Caldwell,Ger-Cari thrown to TROY25 broken up by Welch,Shemar QB hurried by Davis,Elijah PENALTY TROY Offside 5 yards from MEM46 to TROY49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+5
13.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 5 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
14.2%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:039% → 8%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
9.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 5Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
8.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 1 yd to the TROY 6Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+6
8.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
8.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 5 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 7
0
7.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Mojo DortchSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 15
OWN 7
0
7.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
7.7%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 38 , Sutton Smith returns for no gain to the MEM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2888% → 91%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
11.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 4 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
11.5%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
11.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
10.4%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
10.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+6
10.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
9.5%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:477% → 6%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
6.6%
Jordan Lovett run for 12 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
6.8%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Everett Roussaw Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 8Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 20
OWN 8
+1
6.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the TROY 9Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 19
OWN 9
0
6.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Mojo DortchSimilar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 19
OWN 9
0
6.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4093% → 93%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
50
0
7.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Bryce AndersonSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
50
+4
7.0%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-11
7.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
6.9%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:395% → 4%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
4.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 4 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-7
4.8%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 10Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
5.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
3.7%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 5:0395% → 99%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
4.8%
Sutton Smith run for 12 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
3.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
3.7%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
3.7%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the TROY 37Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
4.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
3.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 16 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
3.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.6%
Makari Bodiford run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25INT
16 plays · 73 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
0.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 9 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
0.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 1 yd to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
0.4%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+1
0.2%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+25
0.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 25 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
0.3%
PENALTY TROY False Start (Bowling,Paul) 5 yards from MEM43 to MEM48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+5
0.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 5 yds to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+10
0.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 10 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
0.3%
(00:41) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete deep right to Conner,Ethan thrown to MEM04 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Brumfield,Sam) 15 yards from MEM33 to MEM18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
0.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jackson Worley for 13 yds to the MEM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass intercepted Jalen Bell return for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
0.3%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
Sutton Smith run for 50 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q2 12:02
B. Lewis sacked by D. Smith for -6 yds,B. Lewis fumbled, recovered by MEM T. Robbins,for a TD (S. Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+7.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Gianni Spetic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com