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NAVY

Navy 28 at Memphis 17

MEM
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 27, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:12 · (14:19) #30 L.Carrigan punt 45 yards to the NAV27 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense−6.9Pregame prior+1.7Garbage-time factor−4.2Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:28: (07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #32 M.Adcock caught at NAV01, for 1 yard to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:28 #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut) — MEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:13: (05:15) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:13 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +8.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:43: (01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at NAV00, for 38 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:43, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAV Offside declined #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut) — MEM win probability +10.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: (01:05) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 12 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +24.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:53: (05:56) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:05MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35MEM 4th & 8 at NAVY 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:09NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:31MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:42NAVY 4th & 28 at NAVY 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−5.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:13NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−3.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:25MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−6.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:12MEM 4th & 23 at MEM 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:20MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−1.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:22NAVY 4th & 9 at MEM 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:38MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:11NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:28MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:43MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:01NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:53NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4358% → 58%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.5%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Hawkins thrown to NAV15 broken up by #17 J.RossSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
57.5%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM35 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
57.5%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep middle to #9 J.Hawkins thrown to NAV23Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
57.5%
(14:08) #30 L.Carrigan punt 38 yards to the NAV27 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5943% → 42%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
57.5%
(14:04) No Huddle #24 B.Chatman rush right for 7 yards gain to the NAV34 (#21 S.Israel), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
57.4%
(13:27) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV34 (#7 D.Watts; #99 P.Walker)Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-5
57.8%
(12:46) Shotgun Navy rush middle for 5 yards loss to the NAV29 fumbled by Navy at NAV29 recovered by NAV #11 B.Horvath at NAV29 (#21 S.Israel)Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+2
58.2%
(12:05) #15 J.Carlson punt 32 yards to the MEM39 #5 S.Smith return 2 yards to the MEM41 (#14 J.Campbell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 6:2058% → 59%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
58.1%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush right for 4 yards gain to the MEM45 (#18 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+13
58.3%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #6 M.Bussey caught at NAV42, for 13 yards to the NAV42, out of bounds at NAV42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.6%
(10:57) No Huddle #5 S.Smith rush left for 0 yards to the NAV42 (#49 A.Klenk; #17 J.Ross)Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
58.7%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #5 S.Smith caught at NAV48, for 6 yards to the NAV36, out of bounds at NAV36Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
58.7%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV33 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+5
58.7%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV30 (#98 K.Whiteside) PENALTY NAV Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NAV33 to NAV28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
59.1%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV24 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+9
59.3%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NAV15 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
59.4%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV13 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+1
59.6%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV12 (#14 J.Campbell; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-1
59.5%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. caught at NAV17, for 1 yard loss to the NAV13 (#10 N.Bell)Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
59.1%
(05:38) #44 G.Spetic field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut), clock 05:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:2141% → 40%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
(05:34) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV28 (#9 W.Whitlow Jr.; #93 J.Bell)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
59.1%
(05:03) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV30 (#3 S.Brumfield; #9 W.Whitlow Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.4%
(04:26) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short middle to #46 A.Tecza caught at NAV30, for 6 yards to the NAV36 (#3 S.Brumfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.0%
(03:47) #24 B.Chatman rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV39 (#5 C.Bracy)Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
58.6%
(03:13) #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAV40 (#24 K.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
58.6%
(02:32) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #87 T.Elwell thrown to NAV45Similar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+10
59.5%
(02:24) #96 L.Robinson rush left for 18 yards gain to the MEM42 (#11 G.Caldwell) PENALTY NAV Holding (#97 M.Reyes) 10 yards from NAV40 to NAV30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
60.2%
(02:21) #15 J.Carlson punt 54 yards to the MEM16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3159% → 58%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
58.9%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to MEM20 QB hurried by #95 G.WillisSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
58.8%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MEM08 (#94 X.Arrington, #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+10
58.2%
(01:18) Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. caught at MEM10, for 10 yards to the MEM18 (#58 C.Cauley; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
57.9%
(00:37) #30 L.Carrigan punt 39 yards to the NAV43 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:1142% → 47%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
58.3%
(00:30) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep middle to #24 B.Chatman caught at MEM35, for 27 yards to the MEM30 (#5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
57.4%
(00:10) No Huddle #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 7 yards gain to the MEM23 (#90 T.Burton)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+5
57.3%
PENALTY MEM Offside (#90 T.Burton) 5 yards from MEM23 to MEM18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
57.2%
(15:00) #24 B.Chatman rush right for 8 yards gain to the MEM10 (#6 E.Roussaw Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+4
57.2%
(14:24) #11 B.Horvath rush right for 4 yards gain to the MEM06 (#24 K.Wilson; #5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
57.2%
(13:37) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM05 (#7 D.Watts)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
57.2%
(12:56) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM03 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.7%
(12:15) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #84 K.Evans caught at MEM00, for 3 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:11 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2855% → 64%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.6%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #5 S.Smith caught at MEM25, for 5 yards to the MEM30 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
54.9%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MEM43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
56.1%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #6 M.Bussey caught at MEM39, for 10 yards to the NAV47 (#56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.7%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Bussey thrown to NAV03Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
56.5%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV44 (#58 C.Cauley; #96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+15
55.9%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #12 B.Kluse caught at NAV31, for 15 yards to the NAV29 (#40 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
57.1%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV28 (#96 L.Robinson; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+24
57.1%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush middle for 24 yards gain to the NAV04 (#56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
56.2%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV01 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #32 M.Adcock caught at NAV01, for 1 yard to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:28 #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0140% → 52%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.3%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV28 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
60.7%
(06:41) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #36 J.Collins thrown to NAV42Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+46
61.4%
(06:37) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass complete deep right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at MEM30, for 46 yards to the MEM26 (#31 D.Ward), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MEM Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
57.1%
(06:07) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 22 yards gain to the MEM04 (#31 D.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.0%
(05:47) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM02 (#9 W.Whitlow Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.3%
(05:15) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:13 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:1852% → 64%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
51.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MEM31 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
53.6%
(04:32) Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MEM38 (#16 G.Sessi; #35 L.Pirris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
52.8%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush left for 2 yards gain to the MEM40 (#98 K.Whiteside) PENALTY MEM Holding (#32 M.Adcock) 10 yards from MEM38 to MEM28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
51.5%
PENALTY MEM False Start (#61 C.Adams) 5 yards from MEM28 to MEM23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+3
51.2%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. caught at MEM21, for 3 yards to the MEM26 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+8
50.7%
(02:49) Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at MEM34, for 8 yards to the MEM34 (#16 G.Sessi), out of bounds PENALTY NAV UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#16 G.Sessi) 15 yards from MEM34 to MEM49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
53.7%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM50 (#90 J.Moutome; #35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
50
+12
53.7%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #12 B.Kluse caught at NAV40, for 12 yards to the NAV38 (#17 J.Ross; #58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.6%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short left to #4 C.Braham Jr. thrown to NAV45 broken up by #90 J.MoutomeSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
63.9%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at NAV00, for 38 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:43, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAV Offside declined #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 0:5239% → 36%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.7%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAV26 (#7 D.Watts)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
61.0%
(01:13) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep left to #89 L.Hutchison thrown to MEM35 broken up by #13 J.Jordan QB hurried by #7 D.WattsSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-13
61.9%
(01:06) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath sacked for loss of 13 yards to the NAV13 (#24 K.Wilson) PENALTY NAV Intentional Grounding (#11 B.Horvath)Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 22
OWN 13
-6
63.3%
(01:01) #15 J.Carlson punt 42 yards to the MEM45 #5 S.Smith return 0 yards to the MEM45 (#58 C.Cauley) PENALTY NAV Holding (#0 K.McShan) 6 yards from NAV13 to NAV07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+5
63.6%
(00:49) #15 J.Carlson punt 48 yards to the MEM45 #5 S.Smith return 5 yards to the MEM50 (#92 R.Fry), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:4164% → 65%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
50
+5
64.1%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Smith rush right for 5 yards gain to the NAV45 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+13
65.1%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #87 B.Anderson caught at NAV34, for 13 yards to the NAV32 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.6%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to NAV20 QB hurried by #14 J.CampbellSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+19
65.5%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 19 yards gain to the NAV13 (#14 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
64.3%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #5 S.Smith caught at NAV18, for 1 yard to the NAV12 (#14 J.Campbell; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+31
64.9%
(00:04) #44 G.Spetic field goal attempt from 31 yards NO GOOD (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut), clock 00:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
61.3%
(00:00) Kneel down by #11 B.Horvath at NAV19 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FUMBLE
21 plays · 69 yds · 9:5838% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
61.8%
(15:00) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NAV36 (#1 O.Cooper; #24 K.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
60.9%
(14:27) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV40 (#99 P.Walker)Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
59.5%
(13:46) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV44 (#7 D.Watts)Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
59.4%
(13:09) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV47 (#3 S.Brumfield; #5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
59.1%
(12:25) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 5 yards gain to the MEM48 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
58.7%
(11:51) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM42 (#24 K.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
58.7%
(11:11) #11 B.Horvath rush right for 4 yards gain to the MEM38, out of bounds at MEM38Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
58.4%
(10:37) #24 B.Chatman rush right for 2 yards gain to the MEM36 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
58.8%
(10:00) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM33 (#13 J.Jordan)Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
60.9%
(09:19) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM31 (#6 E.Roussaw Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
57.6%
(08:42) #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep right to #36 J.Collins thrown to MEM10 QB hurried by #7 D.WattsSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
57.7%
(08:35) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM29 (#31 D.Ward; #3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
59.2%
(07:55) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete short right to #46 A.Tecza thrown to MEM10, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (#3 S.Brumfield) 9 yards from MEM29 to MEM20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
57.1%
(07:50) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM17 (#90 T.Burton)Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
57.1%
(07:16) #37 S.Reynolds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM15 fumbled by #37 S.Reynolds at MEM19 recovered by NAV #37 S.Reynolds at MEM15, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
58.7%
(06:35) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM11 (#3 S.Brumfield). #1 O.Cooper injured on the playSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+5
60.6%
PENALTY MEM Offside (#7 D.Watts) 5 yards from MEM11 to MEM06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
57.1%
(06:02) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 3 yards gain to the MEM03 (#99 P.Walker)Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
57.3%
(05:26) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM01 (#93 J.Bell)Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
58.5%
(05:02) Navy rush middle for 5 yards loss to the MEM06 fumbled by Navy at MEM02 recovered by MEM #18 J.Hunter at MEM06, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2664% → 61%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
64.0%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush left for 0 yards to the MEM06 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
63.6%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to MEM15 QB hurried by #14 J.CampbellSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 6
-5
62.2%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MEM01 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 15
OWN 1
0
61.3%
(03:31) #30 L.Carrigan punt 43 yards to the MEM44 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at MEM44. #84 K.Evans injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:1940% → 66%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
59.9%
(03:25) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 8 yards gain to the MEM36 (#5 C.Bracy; #3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
60.0%
(02:54) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM32 (#3 S.Brumfield; #5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
59.0%
(02:16) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MEM22 (#31 D.Ward; #5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
58.4%
(01:37) #24 B.Chatman rush right for 10 yards gain to the MEM12 (#5 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
33.6%
(01:05) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 12 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:4443% → 39%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.7%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Bussey thrown to MEM33Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.3%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM26 (#0 K.McShan)Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
40.4%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep left to #4 C.Braham Jr. thrown to NAV35 PENALTY NAV Pass Interference (#17 J.Ross) 15 yards from MEM26 to MEM41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.6%
(00:17) Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right to #11 G.Caldwell thrown to NAV40Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
43.8%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MEM40 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-12
41.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MEM28 (#35 L.Pirris)Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 23
OWN 28
0
38.7%
(14:19) #30 L.Carrigan punt 45 yards to the NAV27 fair catch by #24 B.Chatman at NAV27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 8:1463% → 90%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
37.3%
(14:12) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV30 (#99 P.Walker)Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
36.4%
(13:30) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 9 yards gain to the NAV39 (#3 S.Brumfield; #13 J.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
34.4%
(12:54) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NAV46 (#7 D.Watts)Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-2
33.3%
(12:18) #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 2 yards loss to the NAV44 (#31 D.Ward)Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+18
33.0%
(11:33) #11 B.Horvath pass complete short left to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at NAV44, for 18 yards to the MEM38 (#3 S.Brumfield; #7 D.Watts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
29.9%
(10:49) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM33 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-3
27.8%
(10:13) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 3 yards loss to the MEM36 fumbled by #46 A.Tecza at MEM33 forced by #7 D.Watts recovered by NAV #46 A.Tecza at MEM36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+15
30.0%
(09:26) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass incomplete deep right to #82 N.Kent thrown to MEM04 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (#13 J.Jordan) 15 yards from MEM36 to MEM21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
27.5%
(09:20) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM16 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
26.6%
(08:41) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM14 (#6 E.Roussaw Jr.; #98 J.Marable)Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
26.7%
(07:59) #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM08 (#31 D.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
22.8%
(07:20) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM05 (#9 W.Whitlow Jr.)Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.2%
(06:40) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM02 (#3 S.Brumfield; #7 D.Watts)Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.8%
(05:56) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:2411% → 11%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.2%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #9 J.Hawkins caught at MEM26, for 4 yards to the MEM29 (#58 C.Cauley). #18 J.Hunter injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
11.4%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short left to #15 C.Ross thrown to MEM30Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
10.5%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush middle for 23 yards gain to the NAV48 (#40 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
13.3%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. thrown to NAV04Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
13.0%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 F.Peasant rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV42 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
12.6%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete deep middle to #9 J.Hawkins thrown to NAV00Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
11.0%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Thompson thrown to NAV35, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 1:5491% → 95%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
9.1%
(04:19) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV46 (#3 S.Brumfield)Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
8.0%
(04:15) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM49 (#24 K.Wilson; #6 E.Roussaw Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
7.7%
(04:09) No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM48 (#99 P.Walker), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
6.1%
(03:23) #37 S.Reynolds rush right for 2 yards gain to the MEM46 (#7 D.Watts)Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
5.2%
(02:40) #11 B.Horvath rush left for 4 yards gain to the MEM42 (#1 O.Cooper)Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
4.9%
(02:35) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 0 yards to the MEM42 (#93 J.Bell) PENALTY NAV Illegal Motion declinedSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+5
5.1%
PENALTY NAV Delay Of Game 5 yards from MEM42 to MEM47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
5.2%
(02:29) #15 J.Carlson punt 44 yards to the MEM03, out of bounds at MEM03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
3.3%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at MEM09, for 8 yards to the MEM11, out of bounds at MEM11Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 2
OWN 11
0
3.3%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short middle to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. thrown to MEM15 QB hurried by #96 L.RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+5
2.6%
(02:03) Shotgun #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM16 (#7 K.Abraham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
2.7%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to MEM20 QB hurried by #17 J.RossSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
2.6%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM22 (#56 M.Parker), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+8
2.5%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #87 B.Anderson caught at MEM30, for 8 yards to the MEM30 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
2.7%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short left to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at MEM41, for 11 yards to the MEM41, out of bounds at MEM41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.9%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short middle to #4 C.Braham Jr. thrown to MEM43Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.8%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass incomplete short right thrown to NAV40 QB hurried by #56 M.ParkerSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+7
2.7%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short middle to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. caught at MEM45, for 7 yards to the MEM48 (#56 M.Parker; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 3
OWN 48
-8
2.5%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MEM40 (#49 A.Klenk), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
3.5%
(00:38) Kneel down by #11 B.Horvath at MEM41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
(01:05) #46 A.Tecza rush right for 12 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-24.8
TD · Q4 5:53
(05:56) Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-12.4
TD · Q2 1:43
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #4 C.Braham Jr. caught at NAV00, for 38 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:43, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAV Offside declined #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com