Memphis

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2795th
  Defense+0.1053rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.2%88th
  Defense40.5%71st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4098th
  Defense+1.2438th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1267th
  Defense+0.1130th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4194th
  Defense+0.1067th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.9%84th
  Defense45.5%75th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.4%93rd
  Defense30.8%71st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7937th
  Defense2.8753rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.8%24th
  Defense20.5%61st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense20.9%34th
  Defense18.3%28th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Memphis allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MISS
2. W
   SOU
3. W
   USA
4. W
   NAVY
5. W
   ULM
6. L
   TEM
7. W
   TULN
8. W
   TLSA
9. W
   SMU
10. W
    HOU
11. W
    USF
12. W
    CIN
13. W
    CIN
14. L
    PSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Memphis.

Players, 2019

1. Brady WhiteQB429 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 51st of 228 QBs
   1.35WAR0.56 to 2.08
2. Kenneth GainwellRB240 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 11th of 349 RBs
   0.83WAR0.60 to 1.04
3. Antonio GibsonWR80 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 29th of 439 WRs
   0.27WAR0.19 to 0.35
4. Patrick Taylor Jr.RB81 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 169th of 349 RBs
   0.25WAR0.18 to 0.31
5. Damonte CoxieWR105 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 53rd of 439 WRs
   0.22WAR0.09 to 0.37
6. Riley PattersonPK19 plays · +0.598 pts/play · 9th of 114 kickers
   0.21WAR0.16 to 0.27
7. Kedarian JonesWR61 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 161st of 439 WRs
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.20
8. Adam WilliamsP30 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 43rd of 100 punters
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Memphis's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  55255271st of 130Roster talent: 552, 71st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16816867th of 130Recruiting: 168, 67th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  70%70%48th of 130Returning production: 70%, 48th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +18.0+18.017th of 130SP+ rating: +18.0, 17th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Memphis's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CINQ2 0:00 4th & 29 at MEM 43, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored punting−4.3 pts
2. vs MISSQ4 6:32 4th & 7 at MISS 42, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at TEMQ4 2:46 4th & 9 at TEM 43, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
4. at TLSAQ1 0:49 4th & 1 at MEM 34, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs MISSQ1 1:31 4th & 1 at MEM 35, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs NAVYQ4 4:17 4th & 2 at MEM 45, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs MISSQ2 4:57 4th & 10 at MISS 39, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs MISSQ3 6:37 4th & 12 at MISS 37, up 13Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

20th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Memphis's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MISS
2. W

   SOU
3. W

   USA
4. W

   NAVY
5. W

   ULM
6. L

   TEM
7. W

   TULN
8. W

   TLSA
9. W

   SMU
10. W

    HOU
11. W

    USF
12. W

    CIN
13. W

    CIN
14. L

    PSU

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Memphis's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.35
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.11

Game by game

• MISSW 15-10 vs MISS61% → 95%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +4
• SOUW 55-24 vs SOU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• USAW 42-6 at USA93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• NAVYW 35-23 vs NAVY80% → 98%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• ULMW 52-33 at ULM86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +23
• TEML 28-30 at TEM64% → 16%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −22, Possession & field position −3
• TULNW 47-17 vs TULN58% → 100%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +41
• TLSAW 42-41 at TLSA76% → 63%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −13: Scoreboard +22, Clock +3
• SMUW 54-48 vs SMU68% → 96%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• HOUW 45-27 at HOU72% → 98%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +35, Clock +1
• USFW 49-10 at USF83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23
• CINW 34-24 vs CIN82% → 97%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +22
• CINW 29-24 vs CIN73% → 96%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +3
• PSUL 39-53 at PSU33% → 1%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Memphis's side.

Closest call

MEM 36-26 ISU (2023) - Memphis dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.